NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 8

Welshy wrote:
Or you could save the Lolo money over Haas and hold for a few weeks to pick up any missed cows Or give yourself a cash boost to grab a falling Gun

That's a valid strategy I've never done before. In theory it sounds excellent but depends at what cost.

Milchcow wrote:
Buying other guns at a discount is not a strategy unique to owning Haas.

Its also something done out of necessity, rather than being deliberately planned for. Do you think think that buying RTS (or whatever WFB has dropped enough cash) cheap is going to be a better long term strategy than paying a slight premium for Tedesco if he starts well?

The example last year was Cook. If you didn't have him after a few rounds, you were out of the running. Buying someone else cheap did not help.

Is Haas going to be that player this year? Taumalolo, someone else not on the forum

is Paas going top continue top improve? Nobody has averaged 70 for a season since Cam Smith in 2013? Can Haas break that barrier? Possible, but he had everything go right for him last year

Cook actually started with all 3 scores below his priced average last year with 56, 63, 48

I remember MS writing about Tedesco last year where you have to buy him before he explodes when he had 2 poor scores to start the year and this logic applies to other guns as well as if the guns you don't have start slowly you might wait for more price drops but then they inevitably smash out a massive score to reverse the price drops

For reference last year:
Cook (started 969k) - scores of 56, 63, 48 (dropped to 901k) and then got 70 & 86 while people weren't worried about him
Tedesco (started 795k) - scored 18, 43 then got 86, 70

The thing about not owning Haas for me, is that I’m just not thrilled about any of the FRFs. I am not overly excited about Knight or Mofo and I will end up just selecting someone just to fill a place, likely Knight. And if Carrigan doesn’t pan out I dread picking another. With Lolo there are loads of 2RFs I want- Fifita, Leilua, Williams, potentially Stimson and Su’A, so it’s not an issue of having to put someone I don’t really like as a fantasy pick in my team.

I also look at the player I would replace. If I put in Lolo, Leilua misses out at 500k but if I pick Haas, Knight misses out at 570k. So the 70k difference (for probably similar scores IMO) comes off the saving between picking Lolo and suddenly I’m only 50k odd better off. Yes I do understand the intrinsic fallacies with this statement, but I’m sticking by it!

What’s the current go with Curran then? Expected to start or off bench

Looking at Parra's piss easy early draw has me looking at Ferguson as a stepping-stone to one of the WFB guns.

Welshy wrote:What’s the current go with Curran then? Expected to start or off bench

I doubt even Kearney knows

rhinoceroo wrote:Looking at Parra's piss easy early draw has me looking at Ferguson as a stepping-stone to one of the WFB guns.

I almost went with Manu last year so same reason. But At least Fergo has previous gun WFB pedigree

Pookus McFly wrote:The thing about not owning Haas for me, is that I’m just not thrilled about any of the FRFs. I am not overly excited about Knight or Mofo and I will end up just selecting someone just to fill a place, likely Knight. And if Carrigan doesn’t pan out I dread picking another. With Lolo there are loads of 2RFs I want- Fifita, Leilua, Williams, potentially Stimson and Su’A, so it’s not an issue of having to put someone I don’t really like as a fantasy pick in my team.

I also look at the player I would replace. If I put in Lolo, Leilua misses out at 500k but if I pick Haas, Knight misses out at 570k. So the 70k difference (for probably similar scores IMO) comes off the saving between picking Lolo and suddenly I’m only 50k odd better off. Yes I do understand the intrinsic fallacies with this statement, but I’m sticking by it!

Just had these exact thoughts. Haas + Williams at 1470 vs knight and lolo at 1440

Throw in captaincy, origin, saving trades and it’s a tough equation

Camo123 wrote:I remember MS writing about Tedesco last year where you have to buy him before he explodes when he had 2 poor scores to start the year

This is a key point and something people forget because they get so focused on last weeks score. The longer you wait for a lower price (on a proven gun), the higher likelihood you're just going to miss out on a massive score. Not trading in a gun because of a high BE is not always the smart play. (obviously there are other factors, can you afford it, etc)

Tedesco career average around 55, and will no doubt average 55 or more again this year, but those scores aren't made up of consistent 55's, there will be 30's and there will be 80s, the odd 25, and maybe a 100 thrown in.

Similar goes for Haas v Lolo. If you start with one and the other goes boom in the first two weeks, I think at that point you probably just ride it out (unless you have an unfortunately convenient trade such injury to another gun that facilitates it). No point tearing your team apart to bring the other in. If lolo pumps out two 80s to start the year he probably follows that up with a 45, etc.

thanks milch for clearing out the team posts

Welshy wrote:What’s the current go with Curran then? Expected to start or off bench

Bro, I dont think anyone knows mate - not even Kearney

Loomer wrote:

I doubt even Kearney knows

haha - beat me to it.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Bro, I dont think anyone knows mate - not even Kearney

rhinoceroo wrote:Looking at Parra's piss easy early draw has me looking at Ferguson as a stepping-stone to one of the WFB guns.

How much improvement does he have in him you reckon? ave 34 priced at 37, so you are starting behind the 8-ball already. Previous fantasy pedigree with another club, the champions at that, and even then his ave was 43.6 (at bloody close to a try a game). prior to that average ~34 across three seasons.

I can see an argument for an improvement this year on last, but is it enough?

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Bro, I dont think anyone knows mate - not even Kearney

For the sake of discussion, what other options do they have there?

LAM and Paasi are their best props, Papali'i has moved to the middle (whether starting or not, who knows), Harris will obviously be on one edge. They have Tevaga to return and Burr might play off the bench as well.

The elephant in the room is Blair. He doesn't take hit ups so he's wasted at prop, lock seems to be covered by Papa and Tevaga.. I think Blair might end up on the other edge?

If it ain't Blair then Curran is a likely shot, or another bolter.. but it seems unlike SK to shake things up like that.

Brandon Smith ruled out for 4 to 6 weeks with a facial fracture.

Source: Storm twitter

my tv broke wrote:Brandon Smith ruled out for 4 to 6 weeks with a facial fracture.

Source: Storm twitter

The slim chance of Harry Grant being released can be waved goodbye

rhinoceroo wrote:Tl:dr, Bennett has killed Cook. https://www.nrl.com/news/2020/02/24/talking-about-an-evolution-why-cook-wont-overplay-his-hand/

HAAAAAAAAAANDBRAKE

Welshy wrote:

I just had a quick look on a (the?) Warriors forum. Some fullah posted that there is currently only 24 of the 30 contracted players available, and when you predict a team sheet likely only one forward misses out of the 17. All the recent ones have Curran starting...

I knida like this guys predicted Warriors team: (like meaning think its probably pretty close)

1. RTS
2. Herbert
3. Fusitua
4. Hiku
5. Maumalo
6. Nikorima
7. Green
8. Blair
9. Egan
10. Paasi
11. Curran
12. Harris
13. Papali'i

14. Lawton/AK
15. Ah Mau
16. Katoa
17. Pulu

18. Lawton/AK

19. Pompey
20. Milne
21. Burr
22. Perham
23. CHT
24. Beale

rhinoceroo wrote:Looking at Parra's piss easy early draw has me looking at Ferguson as a stepping-stone to one of the WFB guns.

I've seen and heard a lot of similar comments to this. I just need to reiterate, as a long time eels fan, that there is no such thing as an easy draw for the Eels. Never has been (in the modern era) and never will be, far as I can see. I'd bet my teeth they will lose at least several of these "piss easy" matches, and then very likely win a couple of the ones they're not meant to win.

That said, Ferguson not a bad shout at all. Not cheap, though...

my tv broke wrote:

For the sake of discussion, what other options do they have there?

LAM and Paasi are their best props, Papali'i has moved to the middle (whether starting or not, who knows), Harris will obviously be on one edge. They have Tevaga to return and Burr might play off the bench as well.

The elephant in the room is Blair. He doesn't take hit ups so he's wasted at prop, lock seems to be covered by Papa and Tevaga.. I think Blair might end up on the other edge?

If it ain't Blair then Curran is a likely shot, or another bolter.. but it seems unlike SK to shake things up like that.

Remember Tevaga is out for a bit though...

I think you are right - Blair could start on edge and Curran gets bumped from the 13. Otherwise Curran probably starts.