NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 8

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

I just had a quick look on a (the?) Warriors forum. Some fullah posted that there is currently only 24 of the 30 contracted players available, and when you predict a team sheet likely only one forward misses out of the 17. All the recent ones have Curran starting...

Lacking a lot of metres in the starting middle though, I think LAM has to start.

Blair hates hit ups, and Papali'i hasn't proven to be a big metre eater.

Have the warriors named their trial team? Is Curran starting?

Seems like half the guys we have big discussions on are getting injured!!

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

How much improvement does he have in him you reckon? ave 34 priced at 37, so you are starting behind the 8-ball already. Previous fantasy pedigree with another club, the champions at that, and even then his ave was 43.6 (at bloody close to a try a game). prior to that average ~34 across three seasons.

I can see an argument for an improvement this year on last, but is it enough?

It's more gambling that he gets an 80 - which he is capable of - in those early fixtures, has some juicy price-riises and is a swap to whichever of Pongs/TTrbo/RTS/Ted has dropped some early coin. The key word in there is "gambling".

I'm likely to be running both Haas and Lolo fwiw. I haven't compromised my 13 too much, but will likely run with Luai and another cheapie on the interchange and Mann at second half. In other words I need to come up with five players at 246k or less (one of them playable) on top of Luai to fill bench and nprs. Hopefully not too much of a stretch. At this stage something like Magoo, Musgrove, Curran, Grant/Walters, maybe Keppie or Rudolf, maybe someone like Toa or Lelelsisnaou pops up or even a bolter. Someone usually pops up. If the pickings are too slim, then I'll need to restructure, but it's really just shifting a few players around.

Regardless of whether you start with Haas or Lolo, you do get the bonus of both of those guys playing extra minutes in golden point in round 1.

rhinoceroo wrote:

It's more gambling that he gets an 80 - which he is capable of - in those early fixtures, has some juicy price-riises and is a swap to whichever of Pongs/TTrbo/RTS/Ted has dropped some early coin. The key word in there is "gambling".

Could be worth a shot!

KingTeddy wrote:Have the warriors named their trial team? Is Curran starting?

Hasnt been named yet as far as I know.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Could be worth a shot!

What interests me is getting in at the bottom/middle and selling at the top of a streak. (If you can master that irl you'll be richer than Rabbit). Fergo probably has more price variance than anyone in the game... last year he peaked at 679k, the year before that 652k.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

I just had a quick look on a (the?) Warriors forum. Some fullah posted

Saw this fullahs post. Ridiculous. As if AK ahead of CHT and CHT misses the 17. I think Kearney is a moron if persists with Green/Niko halves. Niko should be 14 or even hooker. LAM will start prop but Kearney wisdom probably has Blair lock and Harris/Papa edges though would like to see Curran

The guys on the late mail crew podcast did some positional analysis, and their algorithm predicted Parra's right winger (ie Ferguson) as having the best Fantasy match ups over thd opening month or so.

Brisbane hooker also rated highly if you think Turpin is tempting

my tv broke wrote:Brandon Smith ruled out for 4 to 6 weeks with a facial fracture.

Source: Storm twitter

And I was just about to appear out of Lurkerdom to pose a Levi vs B.Smith dilemma!

Sorted.

Well, at least the lad will have great memories of his last match until he plays again.

Milchcow wrote:
is Paas going top continue top improve? Nobody has averaged 70 for a season since Cam Smith in 2013? Can Haas break that barrier? Possible, but he had everything go right for him last year

rhinoceroo wrote:Excuse me, did you just say Paas? What has happened to you?

Forgive me father for I have sinned

I mean, Fergo at Bankwest, against the Dogs, in the first match of the season, he's almost a lock to jag a double. What is Fergo 2 or more tries paying?

Pookus McFly wrote:The thing about not owning Haas for me, is that I’m just not thrilled about any of the FRFs. I am not overly excited about Knight or Mofo and I will end up just selecting someone just to fill a place, likely Knight. And if Carrigan doesn’t pan out I dread picking another. With Lolo there are loads of 2RFs I want- Fifita, Leilua, Williams, potentially Stimson and Su’A, so it’s not an issue of having to put someone I don’t really like as a fantasy pick in my team.

I also look at the player I would replace. If I put in Lolo, Leilua misses out at 500k but if I pick Haas, Knight misses out at 570k. So the 70k difference (for probably similar scores IMO) comes off the saving between picking Lolo and suddenly I’m only 50k odd better off. Yes I do understand the intrinsic fallacies with this statement, but I’m sticking by it!

Mt initial ranking of mid range FRF options was James, then Merrin, then Knight.

If I was superstitious, I'd give up on Knight and go to Haas

And my reasoning for considering Haas is the same as yours. It is not so much that I think he is value, but just that there are no other options that genuinely tempt me.

Trials and where/how to watch. Most notably the Eels vs Panthers trial is live on Foxsports, ch 9, and SkySports

THIS WEEKENDS TRIALS:

my tv broke wrote:I mean, Fergo at Bankwest, against the Dogs, in the first match of the season, he's almost a lock to jag a double. What is Fergo 2 or more tries paying?

Is he playing the same Bulldogs team from last season or have they improved?

Mulvy wrote:I'm likely to be running both Haas and Lolo fwiw. I haven't compromised my 13 too much, but will likely run with Luai and another cheapie on the interchange and Mann at second half. In other words I need to come up with five players at 246k or less (one of them playable) on top of Luai to fill bench and nprs. Hopefully not too much of a stretch. At this stage something like Magoo, Musgrove, Curran, Grant/Walters, maybe Keppie or Rudolf, maybe someone like Toa or Lelelsisnaou pops up or even a bolter. Someone usually pops up. If the pickings are too slim, then I'll need to restructure, but it's really just shifting a few players around.

I've had Haas and Lolo in my recent drafts, but the concern I have is that it limits my choice of cash cows to unknown cheapies or players like Su'a whose stats and job role does not really excite me. If I leave Lolo out, I've got a bit more cash to play with and it will give me a bench that is a bit more promising.
However, if TLT gives us a few more bargain price starters, I'll probably be able to run with the Wrecking Ball combo

rhinoceroo wrote:

It's more gambling that he gets an 80 - which he is capable of - in those early fixtures, has some juicy price-riises and is a swap to whichever of Pongs/TTrbo/RTS/Ted has dropped some early coin. The key word in there is "gambling".

This is a good point. We spend a lot of time discussing what we think someone will average with less emphasis on floor/ceiling. In regards to Haas, I think it was MTB who pointed out that if you start with Haas, you're buying him for his ceiling rather than avg. He's going to put up a tonne at some stage. By not starting him, you are betting that he doesn't do it in the early rounds. Now I know the same could be said for someone like Lolo who also has a high ceiling, I think the difference is ownership.

Haas has high ownership and everyone who owns him will captain him. Lolo has slightly less ownership, and a lot won't be serious teams - autofill and fan favourites mean he always starts with high ownership even in years where he isn't value. And some with Lolo won't captain him anyway because like me they have Haas as well, or someone else like Cook/Smith. Anyway, If Haas goes boom to start the year there's a LOT of teams you are chasing. If Lolo goes boom, the carnage is mitigated to a degree.

my tv broke wrote:Trials and where/how to watch. Most notably the Eels vs Panthers trial is live on Foxsports, ch 9, and SkySports

THIS WEEKENDS TRIALS:

Cheers mate. Any ideas if these times are local, AEDT or Qld time?