NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 12 - TEAMLIST TUESDAY EDITION

Big day today. Feels like Christmas.

Both kids are off sick so there goes my plan to sit in the pub this afternoon. Frozen 2 instead

Some nice chat re: centres. I think I still prefer to go super cheap and hope to score heavier elsewhere. It feels safer with Moses & Cleary straight up or an extra hooker etc. At least it looks like we have quite a few differing teams though.

Verbal Kint wrote:Big day today. Feels like Christmas.

Both kids are off sick so there goes my plan to sit in the pub this afternoon. Frozen 2 instead

Some nice chat re: centres. I think I still prefer to go super cheap and hope to score heavier elsewhere. It feels safer with Moses & Cleary straight up or an extra hooker etc. At least it looks like we have quite a few differing teams though.

With you 100%

Moses/Cleary pairing hasn’t broken in my many recent iterations.

Off sick and Frozen 2 = tinkering

I won't be starting with Grant unless the swap goes through this week. History is littered with "cash cows" the fantasy community expected to get a start through the year, only to not make a debut for 2-3 years. Tautau Moga, Michael Chee-Kam, Darcy Lussick just to name a few. Sure a few people got lucky last year with Xerri, but he could have just as easily spent the year in reserve grade

Milchcow wrote:

If Grant gets decent bench minutes in BSmith's absence, its possible that Walters to Grant won't make you much money. Does that make it a wasted trade?

I don't want to have Grant in my team based off an internet hunch though, last thing you want is a couple of week's of small scores from Grant before he goes back to QCup

I get you, but WT2K's Tigers info over the years has been pretty spot on. If he says something about the Tigers I tend to listen.

The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:With the JMK starting rumour, how many hookers are people going to play in their 21? You could have about 8 with McInnes and BSmith at 2RF!

just made my team pending TLT and I have 6

mattnz wrote:Have made at least 20 team changes today and its not even TLT yet .... the life of an addict

Somehow Friend and Fifita, 2 mainstays of my team found their way out of the team today.

Im not sure how that can happen? Something changed with respect to those two?

The way I play it, I have a list of guys, ranked in terms of their value. The mainstays of my team would never get dumped, unless something has changed.

Verbal Kint wrote:Big day today. Feels like Christmas.

Both kids are off sick so there goes my plan to sit in the pub this afternoon. Frozen 2 instead

Some nice chat re: centres. I think I still prefer to go super cheap and hope to score heavier elsewhere. It feels safer with Moses & Cleary straight up or an extra hooker etc. At least it looks like we have quite a few differing teams though.

Isnt is always a bit of an anticlimax though - the fricken 18-21s always screw with me!

multiple.scoregasms wrote:I won't be starting with Grant unless the swap goes through this week. History is littered with "cash cows" the fantasy community expected to get a start through the year, only to not make a debut for 2-3 years. Tautau Moga, Michael Chee-Kam, Darcy Lussick just to name a few. Sure a few people got lucky last year with Xerri, but he could have just as easily spent the year in reserve grade

I'll probably take a punt on Grant if he is not in the 21 and the deal looks closer. Otherwise I agree, its a bit too much of a risk.

Woh... no one awake yet? I thought it was like Xmas, all you kids in OZ should have been up hours ago, pissing your pants with excitement....

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Im not sure how that can happen? Something changed with respect to those two?

The way I play it, I have a list of guys, ranked in terms of their value. The mainstays of my team would never get dumped, unless something has changed.

Fifita is a really weird option. You're basically buying him for his ceiling because 6/12 of his scores are below 50 at starting 2RF but he has a huge ceiling when he scores a try (72, 100 and 90 points when starting 2nd row with a try)

The thing that concerns me re. Fifita is long-term, he'll be playing Origin and when Lodge returns is he still starting over TPJ/Carrigan with Glenn having one 2RF locked. Is he a final 17 keeper in 2RF

Though I think if you don't pick Fifita you need to upgrade him to Taumalolo and not downgrade him to mass of 470-500k 2RF

I've booked leave for the next few days to sit at home in peace and finalise my fantasy team.

Mrs Cow is a teacher, and her school is currently closed due to Coronavirus, and she's keeping our kids home as well as a precaution, so all my fantasy prep is going to be punctuated every 5 minutes with my son telling me how bored he is.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Im not sure how that can happen? Something changed with respect to those two?

The way I play it, I have a list of guys, ranked in terms of their value. The mainstays of my team would never get dumped, unless something has changed.

With the start of the season drawing nearer, everyone is entering the panic phase of the process.

You start questioning every pick, and become convinced they are going to flop massively.

SoylentGreen wrote:

Who's going to take those minutes if he doesn't? Magoulis is supposedly going to rest Brailey, and most of the rest of their forward pack are cactus.

The latest reports seem to be that Tracey wuill rest Brailey and Magoulias won't make the 17.

We'll get more of an idea this afternoon

Camo123 wrote:

Fifita is a really weird option. You're basically buying him for his ceiling because 6/12 of his scores are below 50 at starting 2RF but he has a huge ceiling when he scores a try (72, 100 and 90 points when starting 2nd row with a try)

The thing that concerns me re. Fifita is long-term, he'll be playing Origin and when Lodge returns is he still starting over TPJ/Carrigan with Glenn having one 2RF locked. Is he a final 17 keeper in 2RF

Though I think if you don't pick Fifita you need to upgrade him to Taumalolo and not downgrade him to mass of 470-500k 2RF

Yeah, no doubt. I get the concerns with Fifita. But if you have done your player-by-player analysis (and Im guessing Matt does) and someone like Fifita ranks so high he's one of the top 2, how can he suddenly be out? When Im tinkering with my team my top 8 guys pretty much never change. So unless something has changed re Fifita? or anyone else people rank so high they are the first two picked in all drafts to date, then Im a little confused how that can suddenly change.

Milchcow wrote:

With the start of the season drawing nearer, everyone is entering the panic phase of the process.

You start questioning every pick, and become convinced they are going to flop massively.

Yeah, perhaps. I think people get a little bit too swayed by the flavour of the day. Fifita is potentially an underpriced gun and there arent too many like that this yearl

My analysis has Friend, Cleary, and Papy up there, with Fifita as guys that should be underpriced guns if they get the right role. Then guys like Leilua, Carrigan, Kinght, & Aubs in a tier just below (i.e. role dependent, they have fairly a good chance of being keepers). I dont have many team iterations without all of those guys although once you add in a couple more must haves, money does start getting tight a for the first time I have listed a few iterations side by side and it has resulted in the odd change to that core group.

The concern with Fifita is

a) When Broncos are at full strength he may be used for bench impact, with Glenn and TPJ the edge starters. Although current injuries mean for now he'll definitely start

b) He is a rocks and diamonds scorer. Half his scores as a starter last year were under his break even. His average is quite high because in the last month he strung together a bunch of really big games in a row. Is he going to pick up where he left off, or will he go back to some high/some low scoring. And will his highs be as high as he got last year. Take away his 190 in 2 weeks and he is priced basically at at his average*. So you really need him to bust out those monsters (which he is entirely capable of doing)

Personally I am going soft on Fifita because he is a lot of money, and it will cost me another gun elsewhere. I am also suspicious of players where you require them to basically replicate a month or 2 of form across an entire season. Been burnt in the past by that sort of thing. He clearly has potential though, so he is not totally out of the running for being in my final 21.


* You could just as easily take out his 2 lowest scores and see his average skyrocket, so whether you want to trust that method of analysis is up to you.

Probably the biggest question around Jack Williams is Andrew Fifita. If Fifita was his old self, then he probably plays 65+ minutes and Williams plays more like regular prop minutes.

Everything I've seen suggests Fifitas knee is still pretty dodgy so maybe he only plays 40 to 45 minutes like he was at the end of 2019.

So if we think Fifita and Woods are subs 1 and 2 after 20 to 25 mins of 1st half, then Williams should push out 30 in his first stint, or even the full 40 if we're lucky. If plan is to play Brailey for sub 80, then an interchange (or two) will need to be used on the hooker in the second half, so coach will need to keep changes up his sleeve. Just the two changes in the first half would be ideal, if all going to plan.

Need to keep a change or two up his sleeve if Dugan or Moylan ever make it onto the field too...

Anyway, all still a guessing game as we haven't really heard anything solid out of the Sharks

Merry Christmas everyone

Pain wrote:I'm picking Bird based solely on his haircut.

haha, he said he is going to keep it until at least round 10, because he hasn't made it past round 10 in the last two years.

Well here we are finally, happy TLT lads!