NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 12 - TEAMLIST TUESDAY EDITION

Pookus McFly wrote:[I just had a look at Carty Party’s trial vs Broncos, he played 60 minutes for those 29 fantasy points- 40 metres gained, 3 tacklebreaks, 2 offloads, 22 tackles with 4 missed (classic). If he got the full 80 mins, and I don’t see why he wouldn’t then he still poses value- the question is just how much. The 4 MTs is also above his 2019 average... of 2.8  

Milchcow wrote:
The concern with Fifita is

a) When Broncos are at full strength he may be used for bench impact, with Glenn and TPJ the edge starters. Although current injuries mean for now he'll definitely start

b) He is a rocks and diamonds scorer. Half his scores as a starter last year were under his break even. His average is quite high because in the last month he strung together a bunch of really big games in a row. Is he going to pick up where he left off, or will he go back to some high/some low scoring. And will his highs be as high as he got last year. Take away his 190 in 2 weeks and he is priced basically at at his average*. So you really need him to bust out those monsters (which he is entirely capable of doing)

Personally I am going soft on Fifita because he is a lot of money, and it will cost me another gun elsewhere. I am also suspicious of players where you require them to basically replicate a month or 2 of form across an entire season. Been burnt in the past by that sort of thing. He clearly has potential though, so he is not totally out of the running for being in my final 21.


* You could just as easily take out his 2 lowest scores and see his average skyrocket, so whether you want to trust that method of analysis is up to you.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

just made my team pending TLT and I have 6

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

I agree with all of this except the logic of plucking out his two top scores. By that logic you are replacing his diamond scores with your predicted average which seems contradictory to the rocks and diamonds consensus. In general Im very opposed to any analysis that simply removes scores unless they are injury related or role change related.

IMO, a better way to get a fair value for Fifita, is to take out the two top scores (which one can argue are unlikely to be repeated) and replace with something a bit more conservative. So take out the 100 and the 90, and replace with a 70 and 65, which from last year we know he is very capable of hitting (scores of 72, 65, and a couple 59s in 12 games). You do that and you get an average of 52.5 as a starter. That's borderline keeper at 5 points value. Im happy to take the risk.

Milchcow wrote:
I've been playing with my team picker, and the cutoff for Fifita seems to be 52 points. more than that and he'sin my team. less than that and he is overlooked
This of course assumes that I have accurate values for every other player.

It's also picking Harris-Tavita as one of my halves if he starts and maintains last years starting average of 36

Milchcow wrote:
I've booked leave for the next few days to sit at home in peace and finalise my fantasy team.

Mrs Cow is a teacher, and her school is currently closed due to Coronavirus, and she's keeping our kids home as well as a precaution, so all my fantasy prep is going to be punctuated every 5 minutes with my son telling me how bored he is.

easytiger wrote:

Just be like Olympic judging, remove the top 1 or 2 and the bottom 1 or 2 - any you maybe get a more reasonable weekly expectation?
Fifita (80 min games last year) remove 36, 38, 90, 100 for a 55 average? A pretty tenuous approach, but still looks like some value on a normal week...

Milchcow wrote:
I've booked leave for the next few days to sit at home in peace and finalise my fantasy team.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

I'd consider that if you had a whole season of scores to work with but for Fifita that would be removing a third of his scores. And no real rationale to remove any to be honest, other than perhpas attenuating those two boom scores to something more conservative if you are concerned he wont hit those again.

Milchcow wrote:

It's also picking Harris-Tavita as one of my halves if he starts and maintains last years starting average of 36

Welshy wrote: Surely Mann can average that for 100k less mate?

Loomer wrote:I've seen some Manly fans say Williame was absolute junk. Is he a massive trap??

Loomer wrote:I've seen some Manly fans say Williame was absolute junk. Is he a massive trap??

Milchcow wrote:
I've been playing with my team picker, and the cutoff for Fifita seems to be 52 points. more than that and he'sin my team. less than that and he is overlooked
This of course assumes that I have accurate values for every other player.

It's also picking Harris-Tavita as one of my halves if he starts and maintains last years starting average of 36