NRL Fantasy 2020 part 22 - The one where we all come back

filthridden wrote:So the QLD government has given Cartwright a medial exemption so he can play without getting his shot.

I hope players cough on him in every single tackle.

I thought this was a joke when I saw it on facebook

filthridden wrote:So the QLD government has given Cartwright a medial exemption so he can play without getting his shot.

I hope players cough on him in every single tackle.

Rabbits21 wrote:
Only trades 2 mate, wow impressive and you mustn’t have too many issues with your side then like most of us.

At the very least I can’t see how I use any less than 3 and I’ll most likely use 4.

I’ve still got Cleary and Ponga. I can play Luai for the 2 weeks Cleary is out, don’t want to trade him
Out and back in and waste 2 trades. I’ll play Williame over Ponga for a week

So the hiatus can be good and bad. At the end of round 2 my HLFs were Cleary and Croft who scored an injured 4 and was an obvious trade. So if things resume I'll be able to play Croft and not Cleary.
I'll park Cleary on the bench because if he is traded out you'll always won't to get him back in so wasting trades there.
Initial thoughts on trades for me are,
Stimpson, J. Williams and probably Kennedy/Katoa are out.
In come no surprises. Watson, Grant and Magoulias.
Obviously all depends on TLT and I won't look at my team again before then. To much happening in 2006 for me to keep up with this team.

GreenMachine wrote:

Booooring

Haha. I already wasted all of Feb pointlessly tinkering with my squad I can't do the same for half of May.

Plus I'm very into 2006 atm.

Very excited for Fantasy to be starting back up again. `Looking at getting Turbo and Haas for Friend and Cleary with a couple of other trades on the side. Just outta the Top 1000 with the best chance since I started playing fantasy more'n 15 years ago. Love having somewhere to say something like that - love this site and the person or people who make footystatistics.com.

Thoughts on Turbo vs Watson? Both are about the same price, but Turbo has a lower floor/higher ceiling compared to Watson playing big mins at hooker

Bethany_B wrote:Thoughts on Turbo vs Watson? Both are about the same price, but Turbo has a lower floor/higher ceiling compared to Watson playing big mins at hooker

This is only my third year of playing Fantasy and Turbo's floor has kind of ruined both my H2H seasons so far, so I'm very hesitant to go there a third time.

Watson playing good minutes is as safe as you get, but I'm really not sure about him at the moment. If I was looking at him I think I'd leave him for round 4 instead of 3, after having a look. I think...

Teeth Eater wrote:

This is only my third year of playing Fantasy and Turbo's floor has kind of ruined both my H2H seasons so far, so I'm very hesitant to go there a third time.

Watson playing good minutes is as safe as you get, but I'm really not sure about him at the moment. If I was looking at him I think I'd leave him for round 4 instead of 3, after having a look. I think...

That's fair enough, but I'm selling Croft to get one of those two guys, so I can't wait a week. Croft will lose money this round and I either have to sell him now or hold long term, and I think the opportunity cost of holding him is too much

Bethany_B wrote:

That's fair enough, but I'm selling Croft to get one of those two guys, so I can't wait a week. Croft will lose money this round and I either have to sell him now or hold long term, and I think the opportunity cost of holding him is too much

Interesting situation. Arguably, Croft is the most reliable of those three to at least get a good solid score in round 3. I wouldn't say he will lose money, but yes, it's a possibility. Probably not a lot, though.

Sorry, I'm offering nothing worthwhile here at all. If I was in your situation, personally, I'd be holding Croft and look at bigger issues in my team.

But. I am shit at Fantasy, so I'd do the opposite of what I say.

Teeth Eater wrote:

Interesting situation. Arguably, Croft is the most reliable of those three to at least get a good solid score in round 3. I wouldn't say he will lose money, but yes, it's a possibility. Probably not a lot, though.

Sorry, I'm offering nothing worthwhile here at all. If I was in your situation, personally, I'd be holding Croft and look at bigger issues in my team.

But. I am shit at Fantasy, so I'd do the opposite of what I say.

Croft's BE is 55, there's a good chance he loses cash in rd3. I don't have any other major issues in my team, I didn't own any of Cleary, DFifi, J Williams, Stimson etc. The only duds I had are Watkins, Musgrove and Knight (even Knight hasn't been that bad)

I'm also looking at Nofoaluma as a super POD, he has a much higher floor than Turbo but a lower ceiling. He breaks tackles for fun and can score tries as well, similar to Cotric. If Rapana wasn't back (and Cotric therefore moving outside Croker and Wighton who are notorious ball hogs), I would be all over Cotric as a buy.

Teeth Eater wrote:

Interesting situation. Arguably, Croft is the most reliable of those three to at least get a good solid score in round 3. I wouldn't say he will lose money, but yes, it's a possibility. Probably not a lot, though.

Sorry, I'm offering nothing worthwhile here at all. If I was in your situation, personally, I'd be holding Croft and look at bigger issues in my team.

But. I am shit at Fantasy, so I'd do the opposite of what I say.

I would also hold Croft.

I wish that was my biggest issue.....

Rabbits21 wrote:
I would also hold Croft.

I wish that was my biggest issue.....

That's fair enough, though the reason I want to sell is the opportunity cost of not making cash or more points elsewhere.

I just did some statistical analysis, comparing Nofa, Turbo and Watson (games at hooker or off the bench at hooker playing 50+ mins, plus round 2 this year where he played 49 mins), and looked at % of games where they scored under 40 and over 51 respectively.

Date range for these games is from round 1 2019 to round 2 2020

For Nofa, in a 16 game sample he scored under 40 points in 25% of his games (4/16), and scored over 51 in 50% of his games (8/16), with an average of 50.375, low score of 15 and high score of 86. None of Nofa's games were injury-affected

For Turbo, in a 14 game sample, he scored under 40 points in 35.71% of games (5/14), and scored over 51 in 42.86% of his games (6/14), with an average of 45.57, low score of -1 and high score of 100. Two of those sub 40 games were injury-affected

For Watson, in a 10 game sample, he scored under 40 points in 10% of his games (1/10), and scored over 51 in 80% of his games (8/10), with an average of 58.9, low score of 22 and a high score of 83. The one game under 40 was the one where he got sin-binned in round 25 last year.

----------------------------------------

Based on this, I think my best bet is to pick Watson, especially considering that all three have similar BEs, so Turbo won't get away from me with one huge score. As much as I rate Croft, he won't average more than Watson does, and I can profit from owning Watson instead of losing money with Croft.

Bethany_B wrote:

That's fair enough, though the reason I want to sell is the opportunity cost of not making cash or more points elsewhere.

I just did some statistical analysis, comparing Nofa, Turbo and Watson (games at hooker or off the bench at hooker playing 50+ mins, plus round 2 this year where he played 49 mins), and looked at % of games where they scored under 40 and over 51 respectively.

Date range for these games is from round 1 2019 to round 2 2020

For Nofa, in a 16 game sample he scored under 40 points in 25% of his games (4/16), and scored over 51 in 50% of his games (8/16), with an average of 50.375, low score of 15 and high score of 86. None of Nofa's games were injury-affected

For Turbo, in a 14 game sample, he scored under 40 points in 35.71% of games (5/14), and scored over 51 in 42.86% of his games (6/14), with an average of 45.57, low score of -1 and high score of 100. Two of those sub 40 games were injury-affected

For Watson, in a 10 game sample, he scored under 40 points in 10% of his games (1/10), and scored over 51 in 80% of his games (8/10), with an average of 58.9, low score of 22 and a high score of 83. The one game under 40 was the one where he got sin-binned in round 25 last year.

----------------------------------------

Based on this, I think my best bet is to pick Watson, especially considering that all three have similar BEs, so Turbo won't get away from me with one huge score. As much as I rate Croft, he won't average more than Watson does, and I can profit from owning Watson instead of losing money with Croft.

For me, if they're all playing good minutes, there's no doubt in the world that Watson is the best option. It's just whether or not he gets those minutes you're after.

For mine if Watson gets 60-80mins, he’s in.

If less, I have other priorities.

Going to let round 3 answer that question, and eyeing him as one of my R4 moves, pending.

Teeth Eater wrote:This is only my third year of playing Fantasy and Turbo's floor has kind of ruined both my H2H seasons so far, so I'm very hesitant to go there a third time.

Tommy can be frustrating because he has such a low floor but high ceiling. If he is fit then there isn't really a science about when to trade him in or not. He can bust a large score at any time.

Last year I pulled the trigger on tedesco to tommy T on game day when tedesco got rested, and trbo busted out a tonne.

Even so, I'm hesitant about grabbing him yet.

my tv broke wrote:

Tommy can be frustrating because he has such a low floor but high ceiling. If he is fit then there isn't really a science about when to trade him in or not. He can bust a large score at any time.

Last year I pulled the trigger on tedesco to tommy T on game day when tedesco got rested, and trbo busted out a tonne.

Even so, I'm hesitant about grabbing him yet.

Yeah, he's very unpleasant to own. I remember towards the end of last year I actually benched him in a really vital H2H match up. Looking at the draw, I think it was his 22 against Raiders. Can't remember the circumstances but I benched him for either that or the - 1 game. That's not what I want from one of my final 17.

I guess if you're just playing overall he balances out OK but I've found him to be a bit of a nightmare H2H acquisition.

First year playing supercoach and I've noticed in their podcasts they speak of him like he's Jesus.. Basically the ultimate fullback pick. But surely his floor is just as low in that format?

Teeth Eater wrote:
Yeah, he's very unpleasant to own. I remember towards the end of last year I actually benched him in a really vital H2H match up. Looking at the draw, I think it was his 22 against Raiders. Can't remember the circumstances but I benched him for either that or the - 1 game. That's not what I want from one of my final 17.

that's right, that's why i'm off him, i'd forgotten about that. -1 in round 24 and missed round 25. that hurt bad with no trades and he was a POD against the other top teams.

The trbo's do strike me as the kind of footy nerds that would keep themselves at peak fitness through this break. He might come out of the blocks quickly in round 3.

I don't really want to waste time on WFB's given the new layout to the season, and if Kennedy is a no go then maybe i'll grab him.

Bethany_B wrote:

That's fair enough, but I'm selling Croft to get one of those two guys, so I can't wait a week. Croft will lose money this round and I either have to sell him now or hold long term, and I think the opportunity cost of holding him is too much

Could you just sell Croft to Grant (I assume you're buying him) and then potentially hold Watkins for a week (as he won't lose cash) to survey options. Or no you need replacement WFB/CTR

my tv broke wrote:

that's right, that's why i'm off him, i'd forgotten about that. -1 in round 24 and missed round 25. that hurt bad with no trades and he was a POD against the other top teams.

The trbo's do strike me as the kind of footy nerds that would keep themselves at peak fitness through this break. He might come out of the blocks quickly in round 3.

I don't really want to waste time on WFB's given the new layout to the season, and if Kennedy is a no go then maybe i'll grab him.

Yep, twice bitten third time shy or not, I'm kind of the same. If Kennedy really is a no-go, I hate to say I will consider him again. I just haven't really looked at anything since the shutdown, but if he's just as likely as any WFB to be a year-end keeper, I'll probably torture myself with him again. Who knows, he might even keep himself switched on in this more desperate and condensed season.