NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 28 - too many guns

GreenMachine wrote:

Like him. Was a coinflip Isaako and cash vs TommyT for me last week.

Coin fell the right way but hard to see Turbo getting a ton anytime soon if 72 is his score with 2 tries and 3 assists. Isaako looked good again and scored healthy in less pretty way... without much ball

He pretty much played the five-eighth role all game. He also only had to fall on the ball for a hattrick but some reason just watched it roll in front of him. He looked so dangerous and did it so effortlessly. I think it's only a matter of time before he has one of those games.

GreenMachine wrote:

Like him. Was a coinflip Isaako and cash vs TommyT for me last week.

Coin fell the right way but hard to see Turbo getting a ton anytime soon if 72 is his score with 2 tries and 3 assists. Isaako looked good again and scored healthy in less pretty way... without much ball

Turbo's tries were both pretty much fall over the line, would have been lucky to get 18 points between them. He has that TB potential and lurks around the ruck to finish off some opportunities. If they were the same priced I'd go Turbo no question, Isaako and the cash makes it a little more difficult if you already own him

Depending how team lists shake out I might take a gamble on Tohu Harris. Will put up 60s until Tevaga returns, even after he gets back is good for 50 odd on the edge

This time last year I was top 20 from ~5th after R2. Tried to be too conservative thinking that my team was obviously very good and didn't take any risks. Finished the season 700th or something like that keeping faith in the wrong players who were initially good to me.

Year before, top 200 until the final ~7 rounds because I was TOO liberal with my trades trying to take risks to get ahead.

Don't be too dogheadded in your strategy, fantasy is a game where opportunities pop up when you think there are none. A prime example is this round, where I didn't see any cows so I bought in Hopoate and Mag out of desperation instead of Capewell and Grant.

Honey Badger wrote:What are peoples thoughts on Isaako?
Not an urgent trade I know but do we think the Broncos will struggle with all their injuries and suspensions? They've got Rooster and Manly next two games.
Tempted to jump on Tommy T now before the price gaps gets too big

I was just looking at that too. I'm on the fence in regards to Tommy T and his niggling injuries. But with him not playing at brookvale he could have a good run.
I probably won't pull the trigger this week, but will keep an eye on both players this round.

Not even a discussion at the same price

Just suggesting I don’t think there should be any fear he’s a 30pt less player.

easy tries or not, Tommy is not getting 5 try involvements most matches. I know you are suggesting he doesn’t need to with TB and LB potential but I’m suggesting be prepared still for the odd 30pointer. Fullbacks will disappoint you way more often than a gun half or hooker

StormTrooper96 wrote:

You have to also remembers guys like Yeo/Api/Capewell/Turbo/Haas/Teddy/McInnes won't score 80 plus every week. Old Joe Blow on your team who scored a nice 45 this week can easily pump out a 70+ score next week whilst Yeo falls back to earth with a mediocre 41.

True. At the moment i have plenty of mid-pricers in Drinkwater/Mann/Lomax/Aubbo/Leilua/Capewell so i will keep assessing on a weekly basis as to who of those is performing, making me money or stalling completely. I probably overstated it when i said i want to go pure guns n rookies, ill still rely on the strength of a few mid-pricers and they will be crucial to my success or lack thereof however i also want to pick the right time to dump them and get a genuine gun in.

What i dont want to do is jump from mid-pricer to mid-pricer based on shortsightedness (i.e jumping on someone for a quick cash grab) anymore. I feel like that style of trading is important early in the season as even the best teams will have a minimum of 1-2 mid-pricers gone wrong (for instance I know i had at least 3 in Su'A, Williams and Simonsson) and you should be aiming to correct those mistakes.

Now as teams improve i think its less important to jump on the flavour of the week mid-pricer and instead look to get good rookies and genuine guns. That said, i know its not a perfect science, if the cheap cows arent available it may be better to jump on a decent mid-pricer and keep them for a while or even the rest of the season. I think what i want to be is adaptable and even though i have a strategy and philosophy, i will need to reassess every week because things change!

GreenMachine wrote:Not even a discussion at the same price

Just suggesting I don’t think there should be any fear he’s a 30pt less player.

easy tries or not, Tommy is not getting 5 try involvements most matches. I know you are suggesting he doesn’t need to with TB and LB potential but I’m suggesting be prepared still for the odd 30pointer. Fullbacks will disappoint you way more often than a gun half or hooker

No doubt he will still have some 20's and 30's in his game. They will balance out with the 70+ games and we should see him land somewhere around a 50 average. Isaako probably somewhere between 40-45, so not a true keeper but definitely worse options

Anyone think Niu could break into the lineup this year, Arthurs hasn’t been that great and from what I saw he looks really impressive, X factor. Even isaako back to wing and maybe fullback ? Hope he gets some decent mins and takes his opportunity

Erin Moleman wrote:Anyone think Niu could break into the lineup this year, Arthurs hasn’t been that great and from what I saw he looks really impressive, X factor. Even isaako back to wing and maybe fullback ? Hope he gets some decent mins and takes his opportunity

Siebold has said it's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when. He did say he would start him off the bench a bunch this season, not sure if he's going to start him though. The kid is so young

Been reading a few articles laying a lot of criticism on Hunt for underperforming which I feel is a bit unwarranted. They have Norman who is arguably just shy of a top tier half, with a solid number of forwards, plus McInnes at 9. How can you lump all the blame on the one guy?

ytsb wrote:This time last year I was top 20 from ~5th after R2. Tried to be too conservative thinking that my team was obviously very good and didn't take any risks. Finished the season 700th or something like that keeping faith in the wrong players who were initially good to me.

Year before, top 200 until the final ~7 rounds because I was TOO liberal with my trades trying to take risks to get ahead.

Don't be too dogheadded in your strategy, fantasy is a game where opportunities pop up when you think there are none. A prime example is this round, where I didn't see any cows so I bought in Hopoate and Mag out of desperation instead of Capewell and Grant.

I think you said it very well with the following "Don't be too dogheadded in your strategy, fantasy is a game where opportunities pop up when you think there are none." I think the key is to have a strategy but you always need a plan B/C/-Z and to always look for opportunities available and thats why to play this game at a top level i think you need to commit some time and thought etc. Yes, there is a big amount of luck but it is loads of skill. You need to beat over 100,000 teams to win this thing so its not easy and just like you said you cant afford to be dogheaded!

Strategy thoughts: Mission come home with a wet sail.

My team (below) is mostly a mix of Cows and Guns. At the moment, more cows with guns. (run cow run - sorry stupid reference).

Im looking at a few lean weeks with points (compared to others) but cash generation wont be too bad. Im thinking of making the below trades this week, and hope that my cows continue to fire for the next few weeks. Which will allow for upgrades down the track, looking at upgrading Horse and my bench as the priorities after this weeks trade fest.

Before trades i have

Api
Carrigan, Haas
Leilua, Taumalolo, Horsburgh
Moses, Drinky
Bj, Shiba
Paps, Turbo, Williame

Tapine, Grant, Katoa, Braily

JTB, Rudolp, Keppie, Walter.

Looking at these trades

BJ > Capewell
Brailey > Best
Shiba > 212k
Tapine > brooks.

These leaves me a solid 1-13. But my bench is average at best.

Katoa, Grant, JTB Walters/Rudolp/williame/keppie/212k.

GreenMachine wrote:Not even a discussion at the same price

Just suggesting I don’t think there should be any fear he’s a 30pt less player.

easy tries or not, Tommy is not getting 5 try involvements most matches. I know you are suggesting he doesn’t need to with TB and LB potential but I’m suggesting be prepared still for the odd 30pointer. Fullbacks will disappoint you way more often than a gun half or hooker

He has already had a 17 this season. I see Ponga and Teddy as must have, someone else will be the 3rd best WFB this season

StormTrooper96 wrote:

You have to also remembers guys like Yeo/Api/Capewell/Turbo/Haas/Teddy/McInnes won't score 80 plus every week. Old Joe Blow on your team who scored a nice 45 this week can easily pump out a 70+ score next week whilst Yeo falls back to earth with a mediocre 41.

If Yeo is a lock for 80min at 13 then I believe his overall points would be worth it. I have considered going Leilua to Yeo, but that would cost me 90k down the road, so I'll find another way. I think Cleary Sr's concern re Yeo was whether he could play the 80. He's shown he can. Only concern I'd have is Martin on the bench.

And yes, he could score 41, just like we've seen with Tolo in the past, but I do think Yeo averages 55+

multiple.scoregasms wrote:Depending how team lists shake out I might take a gamble on Tohu Harris. Will put up 60s until Tevaga returns, even after he gets back is good for 50 odd on the edge

In that range I want guys that are season keepers (or at least a good chance to be).

ytsb wrote:This time last year I was top 20 from ~5th after R2. Tried to be too conservative thinking that my team was obviously very good and didn't take any risks. Finished the season 700th or something like that keeping faith in the wrong players who were initially good to me.

Year before, top 200 until the final ~7 rounds because I was TOO liberal with my trades trying to take risks to get ahead.

Don't be too dogheadded in your strategy, fantasy is a game where opportunities pop up when you think there are none. A prime example is this round, where I didn't see any cows so I bought in Hopoate and Mag out of desperation instead of Capewell and Grant.

That's interesting, last year with my finish in top 20 my rank barely fluctuated
R2 was around 40th, R3 dropped to around 250 but after R5 I didn't drop out of top 100 for the rest of the season and rank barely fluctuated week to week

Agree with the strategy and what T4 has been mentioning so far, pending TLT I think I have around 10-11/18 for final 18 with 2 mid-rangers making cash (Leilua & Mann) and the rest either guns/viable final 17 quality or cows with 20 trades left to fill 7-8 spots

multiple.scoregasms wrote:Depending how team lists shake out I might take a gamble on Tohu Harris. Will put up 60s until Tevaga returns, even after he gets back is good for 50 odd on the edge

I love Tofu as player and in fantasy but has burned me with injuries so many times over the years

Courier Mail reporting knee injury for Turpin and Paix will debut

Article behind paywall, but available on Reddit:
The Brisbane Broncos will blood two NRL debutants in Thursday’s showdown against the Roosters as injuries crushed Anthony Seibold’s team.

Rising hooker Cory Paix will make his NRL debut at hooker after regular No. 9 Jake Turpin was ruled out with a knee injury.

Turpin did not train at Red Hill on Tuesday morning, leaving Paix to spend the entire session at dummy-half.

Broncos going down like flies at the moment

Any thoughts on my team would be appreciated

Api
Haas Carrigan
Tolo Leilua Katoa
Moses JMK*
Capewell Burns
Papy Kennedy Williame

Friend Levi JTB Grant
Stimson (out for Cow) Walters Luai Rudolf

$221k

Hating on lazy JMK atm but serviceable half 2 atm. Need a stronger WFB and no 2RF cover. I can go Stimson to Averillo and Walters to Turbo or RTS but the only players I'm interested in is Yeo, a gun half and a FB