NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 49 - Trade Drama Island

Rabbits21 wrote:So I can do 3 trades of:

Moses to DCE
Rudolf to Young
Paix to Sironen

Or

Moses to Pearce
Rudolf to Young
JTB to Taupau
Paix to Sironen


Thoughts?


Team before trades is

Koro
Haas MoFo
Lucy Murray Yeo
Cleary Moses
Latrell Crichton
Pappy Teddy Ponga

Grant Carrigan JTB Rudolf
Niu Hammer Paix Magoulias

Bump.....

Rabbits21 wrote:
Bump.....

Option B

Milchcow wrote:

if I go Robson I'll have both Young and RFM playing 2RF, which isn't ideal compared to some of the top teams, but the $300k is quite juicy.

Its quite tempting. I think its better than a different 2Rf gun - someone like AngusCrichton/Tohu,Murray. In that case I think I'd rather spend the cash on lolo

Yeah thats what my gut said looking at your team, Taumalolo definitely helps balance it in the 2rf
All depends on what you do with the 300k but struggling to see where you spend it now

Siebold confirms Lodge ruled out for the Broncos.

my tv broke wrote:Siebold confirms Lodge ruled out for the Broncos.

Weird. NRL literally posted that he was "good to go" yesterday

my tv broke wrote:Siebold confirms Lodge ruled out for the Broncos.

Hmmm Haas for 80 looking more likely this week with Ofa out too.

Boozecluez wrote:Something to consider with waiting to finish your team, is how long do you wait?
With 12 weeks left the longer you wait for your final team the less overall points you gain
A 5pt upgrade in 4 weeks is only really 40pts on overall
I know it seems obvious, but you can almost treat now as origin 3 having finished and we are on the run home.

I remember the things that worked for me was getting that team together early while others were pissing around with their last 3-4 players
Steady gains can be made, maybe that is the POD for some teams

Take this example, I keep and play Rudolf (37avg) with the idea to upgrade to Twal (66avg) in 4 weeks. 37x4 = 148 , 66x8 = 528    = 676  
Or I upgrade to a Taupau now for 120k less (56avg) this week, 12x56 = 672
Could wait a week on Taupau but each week is different so 2 trades free next week is worth the 20k lost

Now there are alot of variables with Rudolfs role, Twal returning from injury and maintaining 66 avg and other injuries turning up vs grabbing an underpriced player today liek Taupau and hoping they can simply maintain their average with hope of a few big games (Based on history)

TLDR Now is probably the time to get an overall team together vs waiting on finishing your team later.
Maybe settle for the next tier down if needed than waiting until it's too late

I made peace with my team, 'settled' for a few lesser players but will start my finals run from here.
The only real upgrades I will consider will be better centres (but that is my calculated risk area) with the upgrade to a gun much smaller than other areas

4 trades this week has simply accelerated this, being able to trade in Tedesco/DCE/Robson/Taupau this week

Great post Booze. It reminds me of principles used when playing an engine builder boardgame.
Because of the 4 trades i'll be able to get a "quality" 17 on the field this week without having to play a risky cash cow.
I've seen a few teams with a solid 13, but they have a high risk 14-17. It could pay off for them, but I prefer using tweaks and improvements on the 17 i have now.

Camo123 wrote:

Honouring the new sponsor??

Hahaha the subliminal messaging got to me.......he actually has more than 1200km in last 3 games with Hunt off the bench, and to be fair the other option was a downgrade to Wakeham which I couldn't follow through with. Just a bit short of Brown who I wanted but Norman will fill the void

Having a bench of Grant/Lucy/Butcher/Young feels pretty good. I am set on my trades.

Moses/Drinkwater/Rudolf/Paix OUT!!

Cleary/Niu/Young/Butcher IN + 15K.

Team is now:

Koro
Haas Carrigan
Lolo Angus Matto
Cleary DCE
Talau Lomax
Pappy Ponga Farnworth

Grant Lucy Butcher Young
Niu Crichton Luai HTF

13 Trades + 15K.

Lucy Butcher and Young now become my tickets to Teddy, Taupau, Other, while Niu, Crichton, Luai, HTF and Farnworth become my cash outs.

Will be death riding Teddy tonight!!!!

I am going to limit myself to 7 trades now to get to my final 17. 3 will be used on Lucy, Butcher and Young and another four on the cows. Hoping to ride home with 6 trades up the sleeve.

Milchcow wrote:

Its not a great bench - what were the other trades to allow it? I assume Hetherington was one

DCE over Cleary may be a bit better for overall squad balance.

Anyway you can swing Crichton to Hudson Young or something (assuming you like the cut of Young's jib) You don't need Crichton positionally so a better scorer there would be a big help

If I take a punt on both Young and Butcher (which is risky) I can get:

Api
Haas MoFo
Lolo Aloiai Butcher
Cleary Pearce
Mitchell Best
Papy Lomax Ponga

Carrigan Young JTB Grant
HTF Crichton Niu Musgrove

I'll have enough left over to go JTB and Crichton to Teddy (unless he gets a banner v Melbourne) and a cheapie next week.

surmo13 wrote:hmm, can't decide whether or not DCE is worth the extra 120k over Pearce

That’s the issue I’m having.

StormTrooper96 wrote:

Option B

What do you see Pearce averaging though?

Is it worth really saving 125k bringing in Pearce over DCE so I can then get Taupau in?

Or is DCE more important and just hold JTB as 17th man?

Bench with DCE option A upvote:

Grant Carrigan Young JTB


Bench with Pearce partnering Cleary option B downvote:

Grant Carrigan Taupau Young

Chewie wrote:

Great post Booze. It reminds me of principles used when playing an engine builder boardgame.
Because of the 4 trades i'll be able to get a "quality" 17 on the field this week without having to play a risky cash cow.
I've seen a few teams with a solid 13, but they have a high risk 14-17. It could pay off for them, but I prefer using tweaks and improvements on the 17 i have now.

Cheers Chewie, will have to check the game out

It's essentially risk mitigation

The risk in my team is the 2 cheap centres that I have to play so 15/17 are solid scorers
These centre players are 20-40 type players, though a gun centre maybe a 30-40 type player but even then still not consistent
The chance for my score to fluctuate is minimal failing an injury and perhaps a couple players having off games

The other cheap players people are playing on their bench in the 13-17 are often cheap for a reason but needed to get the captain tier guns in.
ie new role players so you are gambling on minutes or breaking into the side due to form/injury.
When it works its great and sometimes these guys go under the radar for a while, though more times than not they fail as well
Also what we perceive as fantasy coaches/fans vs a coaches reality doesn't always stack up. Case in point Dean Whare

So back to my team if I had to do the above and then add in another say two cows on my bench as well, then 13/17 are solid so your scores will fluctuate
Average this over a few weeks and that can add up
Having an extra couple top tier guns might offset some of this damage, but what seperates them from the others is hitting those huge scores. Another form of risk

So Cleary + Niu (Bench) last week vs Pearce + Robson (Bench) scores very similar
But roll this scenario over 12 weeks and the latter will probably win this scenario and if they score well enough don't require further trades

You do get people who fluke it week to week and maybe can mitigate further with loops
Its a risky game given the past few weeks so depth may be even more crucial going forward

mattnz wrote:
Hmmm Haas for 80 looking more likely this week with Ofa out too.

I swear you post this every single week

I got Pearce 2 weeks ago. I'm fine to keep him, but I wish I didn't now. His turnstile defence is so difficult to watch as an owner. I would spend more to get Giraffe Neck.

Verbal Kint wrote:I'm leaning towards SJ or DCE over Cleary. I think I'll enjoy death riding bubblehead more than owning him. Hmmm

Thinking I'll enjoy death riding Roger Ramjet too.

StormTrooper96 wrote:Having a bench of Grant/Lucy/Butcher/Young feels pretty good. I am set on my trades.

Moses/Drinkwater/Rudolf/Paix OUT!!

Cleary/Niu/Young/Butcher IN + 15K.

Team is now:

Koro
Haas Carrigan
Lolo Angus Matto
Cleary DCE
Talau Lomax
Pappy Ponga Farnworth

Grant Lucy Butcher Young
Niu Crichton Luai HTF

13 Trades + 15K.

Lucy Butcher and Young now become my tickets to Teddy, Taupau, Other, while Niu, Crichton, Luai, HTF and Farnworth become my cash outs.

Will be death riding Teddy tonight!!!!

I am going to limit myself to 7 trades now to get to my final 17. 3 will be used on Lucy, Butcher and Young and another four on the cows. Hoping to ride home with 6 trades up the sleeve.

Scratch this... Have gone Sironen in over Butcher. The 281K itb is probably better for getting in those guns sooner. Could almost do Lucy to Taupau and Luai to Teddy in one straight trade next week.

StormTrooper96 wrote:Anyone interested in Shane Wright? I forget why he is in the team? Is he in there on merit?

Think he is there for the injured Mitch Dunn. Last year Wright and Opacic were for the most part fairly solid defensively on that edge. I guess Wright may remain there.

wolfking wrote:I got Pearce 2 weeks ago.  I'm fine to keep him, but I wish I didn't now.  His turnstile defence is so difficult to watch as an owner.  I would spend more to get Giraffe Neck.

The Knights look the real deal this year, he is an attacking confidence based player and they are going along well so his points come along with them
Last week was a blip so can see them firing again this week, worst case he gets all the KM so he should go fine
You also didn't pay alot for him, so even if he goes 5pts lower than the neck, he was much cheaper and assuming you used the money elsewhere

Boozecluez wrote:

The Knights look the real deal this year, he is an attacking confidence based player and they are going along well so his points come along with them
Last week was a blip so can see them firing again this week, worst case he gets all the KM so he should go fine
You also didn't pay alot for him, so even if he goes 5pts lower than the neck, he was much cheaper and assuming you used the money elsewhere

Yeah as I said, I'm fine to keep him. He'll be solid and got him at his bottomed out price so can't complain.