NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 3 - Closer

Whats the link again for the 2020 overall rankings on MTB's site?

SandroTilocca wrote:Whats the link again for the 2020 overall rankings on MTB's site?

footystatistics.com/overall_rankings.php

FalconSloth wrote:Somone just talked about Gagai at centre and with Gilbert -> Moylan it gave me enough cash to put him into consideration

his stats last year at centre with a try are: 32, 55, 53, 43
and his stats without a try are: 59, 43, 39, 32, 54, 55, 46, 42

that combines for a total average of 46.1 while he is only priced at 39. I might have to pay 150k more but the general rule is that a trade is worth 150k anyway and this should save about 3 trades in the centre position

His season averages at centre playing 50+ minutes are +(Tries/games):
2014: 35.8 (5/23)
2015: 31.8 (3/17)
2016: 40.6 (1/7)
2017: 42.8 (2/16)
2018: 34.4 (3/19)
2019: 37.4 (2/11)
2020: 46.1 (4/12)

His previous stats make him not look as good but those stats from last year are just insane for a starting centre not scoring many tries. Thoughts?

I wouldn’t but South’s centres always seem to score well (Burns, C Graham) so he could be a potential keeper.

FalconSloth wrote:

His season averages at centre playing 50+ minutes are +(Tries/games):
2014: 35.8 (5/23)
2015: 31.8 (3/17)
2016: 40.6 (1/7)
2017: 42.8 (2/16)
2018: 34.4 (3/19)
2019: 37.4 (2/11)
2020: 46.1 (4/12)

His previous stats make him not look as good but those stats from last year are just insane for a starting centre not scoring many tries. Thoughts?

You would normally use 70+ minutes for a center, not 50+

The stats would be the exact same

2018 was my first year of Fantasy and Gagai was one of my first picked. I then spent the entire season wishing he was not in my team. I didn't get rid of him because I kept having faith that he'd come good, but he kept disappointing. 34 point average doesn't seem that bad for a centre, but I hated owning him. I swore to never do it again.

So I'm not sure if I'm just bitter, or what. He did post some good numbers at the end of last year but I still just couldn't consider him at that price, personally. If you go with him, I hope he treat you better.

I use 60+ for backs.

I think we all agree, having that functionality is fantastic, homage paid to MTB. (and the cow I think for past stats)

FalconSloth wrote:

His season averages at centre playing 50+ minutes are +(Tries/games):
2014: 35.8 (5/23)
2015: 31.8 (3/17)
2016: 40.6 (1/7)
2017: 42.8 (2/16)
2018: 34.4 (3/19)
2019: 37.4 (2/11)
2020: 46.1 (4/12)

His previous stats make him not look as good but those stats from last year are just insane for a starting centre not scoring many tries. Thoughts?

Make sure you specify to Fanhub that you're buying the Origin Gagai version

As I said the other day, every available pure CTR above 40 average had at least one score <20 last year (Staggs only injury affected but unavailable) so I would predict over a larger sample size he would still throw up some stinkers because he's a CTR that would have you questioning why you spent 500k+ on a CTR

Gagai or Kelly? Two guns not too much difference in pricing who owners are expecting to average 44+ after one good season but every other season has averaged less than what they are priced at

I know Taupau didn't have as good a year as he normally does, but does anyone think he looks good value? And arrow as well for that matter?

FalconSloth wrote:Gagai or Kelly? Two guns not too much difference in pricing who owners are expecting to average 44+ after one good season but every other season has averaged less than what they are priced at

Gagai if you want WFB dual, Kelly if you want to save a bit of money.

I've moved away from Gagai and towards Hopoate who's historically averaged better than those two, is 100k less and is dual position too.

Holy Moly wrote:I know Taupau didn't have as good a year as he normally does, but does anyone think he looks good value? And arrow as well for that matter?

Just be aware that if you think Taupau might get more minutes because [insert any reason here] you are wrong. He won't get more minutes

Not expecting more minutes from Taupau, it's just that he's been a great fantasy scorer for years and last year wasn't that awful for him.

FalconSloth wrote:Gagai or Kelly? Two guns not too much difference in pricing who owners are expecting to average 44+ after one good season but every other season has averaged less than what they are priced at

I'm looking for a bit of job security at centre this year. Even just a bump of a few points is preferable to the revolving door of centres. A couple of trades saved could mean big advantages down the line.

Having said that, over 400k for a centre is pushing the friendship a little. I've been looking at Hoppa, and was pretty happy with Dwalker until Camo pointed out a court date, in mattnz's thread.

Milchcow wrote:

Just be aware that if you think Taupau might get more minutes because [insert any reason here] you are wrong. He won't get more minutes

I just looked at Taupau's minutes and averages. Not including his 8 min game in 2020, his avg score was 51.9 and his avg minutes were 46.8. In 2019, avg score 53.5 and avg min 49.4. So, not a massive difference. Why then was Taupau's price up near 800k to start 2020?

Holy Moly wrote:



I just looked at Taupau's minutes and averages. Not including his 8 min game in 2020, his avg score was 51.9 and his avg minutes were 46.8. In 2019, avg score 53.5 and avg min 49.4. So, not a massive difference. Why then was Taupau's price up near 800k to start 2020?

Different magic number used. Similar scoring, when most players significantly increased their scoring under the new rules.

Holy Moly wrote:



I just looked at Taupau's minutes and averages. Not including his 8 min game in 2020, his avg score was 51.9 and his avg minutes were 46.8. In 2019, avg score 53.5 and avg min 49.4. So, not a massive difference. Why then was Taupau's price up near 800k to start 2020?

Similar to Andrew Fifita, in previous seasons he is/was a gun. Similar to Andrew Fifita he relies on base in the 40s and every so often goes large with TBs and OFs to give a big score and average mid to high 50s, not necessarily needing big minutes to do so. But they decline with injuries and age and both are now getting reduced minutes. If fit and firing they both have to potential to gun it again, but are less appealing with the new mid/edge positions, because finding gun FRFs was always tricky, but MID guns includes big minute locks and hookers like Lolo and McInnes which diminishes the value of gun pure props.

Got it. Thanks guys.

easytiger wrote:

He stated that HTF, Drinkwater and Holmes are all in the running for Fullback and that they all know it will come down to who is best at organising the defensive line and where traffic is going.

Also singled out Clifford as being someone he's been impressed with (so possibly has the inside running for 5/8?)
Unsurprisingly Drinkwater has spent time at Fullback and Five-Eighth in the preseason.
HTF & Holmes have spent time at Fullback, Wing and Centre.

Anyone's guess where the chips land.
But one thing is for sure, Payten isn't concerned with doing anything just because the Cowboys have done it in the past

I have Morgan in my team I’m hoping he’s next to Drinkwater not Clifford