NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 3 - Closer

I’m after a 246k player (by necessity, not choice) in any position. If Verrills is named at 14 is he the best choice (assuming Friend gets injured soon enough)? Whoever it is becomes my 21st player. The other options are mostly FB’s. Feagai will be my 20th player. I guess, with this theory, I could say Simpkin (as Liddle will eventually break) or Tracey (as Moylan will no doubt break).

Mighty Fishes wrote:

I have Morgan in my team I’m hoping he’s next to Drinkwater not Clifford

I'd love to get behind Morgan and hope you are right that he's a good pick. He's never averaged close to 50 in a season though. Yeah there was that one time at the end of a season etc

If he can stay fit for a change and partnered with Drinkwater he could push towards 300+ KMs and 50+ points, priced at 39. Won't be a keeper though imo, no round 13, and at his price won't make enough cash to be viable.

I'd say, partnered with Drinkwater he's very much borderline, partnered with Clifford a definite no go.

The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:I’m after a 246k player (by necessity, not choice) in any position. If Verrills is named at 14 is he the best choice (assuming Friend gets injured soon enough)? Whoever it is becomes my 21st player. The other options are mostly FB’s. Feagai will be my 20th player.

I wouldn't worry. There's always a few that turn up on TLT. The hard part is picking the good ones from the duds. You already have the Blores/Lauries/Simonssonssosns etc??

Mulvy wrote:

I'd love to get behind Morgan and hope you are right that he's a good pick. He's never averaged close to 50 in a season though. Yeah there was that one time at the end of a season etc

If he can stay fit for a change and partnered with Drinkwater he could push towards 300+ KMs and 50+ points, priced at 39. Won't be a keeper though imo, no round 13, and at his price won't make enough cash to be viable.

I'd say, partnered with Drinkwater he's very much borderline, partnered with Clifford a definite no go.

He was averaging well over 50 last season (partnered with Drinkwater) before he broke.

Mulvy wrote:

I wouldn't worry. There's always a few that turn up on TLT. The hard part is picking the good ones from the duds. You already have the Blores/Lauries/Simonssonssosns etc??

Yes, except no Simmonson.

Mulvy wrote:

I'd love to get behind Morgan and hope you are right that he's a good pick. He's never averaged close to 50 in a season though. Yeah there was that one time at the end of a season etc

If he can stay fit for a change and partnered with Drinkwater he could push towards 300+ KMs and 50+ points, priced at 39. Won't be a keeper though imo, no round 13, and at his price won't make enough cash to be viable.

I'd say, partnered with Drinkwater he's very much borderline, partnered with Clifford a definite no go.

My thoughts exactly. If he’s with Drinkwater I’ll run him if not I’ll look for something else.

Cheers Mulvy

rhinoceroo wrote:

He was averaging well over 50 last season (partnered with Drinkwater) before he broke.

Can't argue with stats like that.








































#sample of 2

Mulvy wrote:

Can't argue with stats like that.








































#sample of 2

It's a low sample but it was a sample of 5 games. Didn't notice he was partnered by Hampton not Drinkwater in three of them, but same difference. As long as it's not Clifford.

rhinoceroo wrote:

It's a low sample but it was a sample of 5 games. Didn't notice he was partnered by Hampton not Drinkwater in three of them, but same difference. As long as it's not Clifford.

Agreed. I don't know, fantasy is full of these guys who should do better but never do. Hope I'm wrong.

So i have settled on picking all 4 of Turbo/Papi/RTS/Holmes. Then i have Niu, Moylan (EMG) and W.Hopoate (in my centres). Seems crazy to pick all 4 but i think all are value, RTS is probably the one i have the least amount of confidence in.

There seems to be a fair few cheap middle forwards available so im not spending too much on them and then i have expensive edge forwards.

Not sure i have found the right balance yet but ill keep editing and hopefully move in the right direction haha

Every year since Thurston retired, Michael Morgan has been talked up as someone with a lot of value in the halves. I've been suckered in by him once or twice in this time. He's just not consistent enough IMO

Taukeiaho is similar. Every year people think he'll break out

So was Moeaki Fotiaika, and he actually delivered last year. There's always a chance Morgan/Tauk will do so as well, but I am a little skeptical.

Was curious with the Hoppa, Gagai discussion and you can get a pretty gun team even with them in the centres.

JBrailey
Lolo Ford Ah Mau
DFifi Davey
Cleary CHT
Gagai Hoppa
Teddy Trbo Isaako

Egan Lam Watson Liddle

Riki Blore Laurie Simonsson

Milchcow wrote:
Every year since Thurston retired, Michael Morgan has been talked up as someone with a lot of value in the halves. I've been suckered in by him once or twice in this time. He's just not consistent enough IMO

Taukeiaho is similar. Every year people think he'll break out

So was Moeaki Fotiaika, and he actually delivered last year. There's always a chance Morgan/Tauk will do so as well, but I am a little skeptical.

Disagree about SST. His last 3 years of averages were:

2018: 37
2019: 45
2020: 50

Factoring just performances over 50 minutes per year (games 50+)

2018: 48.7 (6)
2019: 57.5 (10)
2020: 57 (13)

Edit: and even deeper dive reveals more about his minutes (take with a grain of salt as Roosters had a fair few injuries in 2020). Average in 60+ minute games (number of games):

2018: 56 (1)
2019: 56.3 (3)
2020: 62.1 (9)

SST is one of the Roosters main pack leaders and so I don't think it's unreasonable to assume the number of games he plays 50+ minutes in this year will continue to increase. This coupled with the fact that he's the first choice goal kicker means he could be averaging 60 this year. 

Barring injury, I see him as a MID that will be in my team until the very end. I'm picking him up round one because priced at 50, I think that's as low as his price will go.

Final edit: Not to mention the bloke is at 6.42% ownership, a great POD option.

Snatchpato wrote:
Disagree about SST. His last 3 years of averages were:

2018: 37
2019: 45
2020: 50

Factoring just performances over 50 minutes per year (games 50+)

2018: 48.7 (6)
2019: 57.5 (10)
2020: 57 (13)

Edit: and even deeper dive reveals more about his minutes (take with a grain of salt as Roosters had a fair few injuries in 2020). Average in 60+ minute games (number of games):

2018: 56 (1)
2019: 56.3 (3)
2020: 62.1 (9)

SST is one of the Roosters main pack leaders and so I don't think it's unreasonable to assume the number of games he plays 50+ minutes in this year will continue to increase. This coupled with the fact that he's the first choice goal kicker means he could be averaging 60 this year. 

Barring injury, I see him as a MID that will be in my team until the very end. I'm picking him up round one because priced at 50, I think that's as low as his price will go.

Final edit: Not to mention the bloke is at 6.42% ownership, a great POD option.

I'm coming round to SST. Also Tupounuia, who passes my eye test and is underpriced due to time on interchange.

However then I remind myself what a nightmare it is to own Roosters forwards with Trent Robinson  chopping and changing and generally giving them roles and minutes that suit a particular game as it's happening rather than fantasy.

Taukeiaho scores more points when he gets more minutes, as most forwards do.

But I don't think he'll average a lot more minutes. Robinson is the master of rotation and managing workload. There will be a game or 2 where the Roosters are winning big and Tauk gets a rest to give a bench guy a long stint. You have to account for that in your planning.

The goalkicking is a nice bonus, but I am not sure he'll get a lot more other than that, and I think he needs more than just goalkicking extras to be a purchase

whall15 wrote:Was curious with the Hoppa, Gagai discussion and you can get a pretty gun team even with them in the centres.

JBrailey
Lolo Ford Ah Mau
DFifi Davey
Cleary CHT
Gagai Hoppa
Teddy Trbo Isaako

Egan Lam Watson Liddle

Riki Blore Laurie Simonsson

I think the difference is you've only got 4 gun players that can comfortably average 50+. Most teams that go cheaper at ctr can fit at least 5 of those gun players in

Milchcow wrote:
Taukeiaho scores more points when he gets more minutes, as most forwards do.

But I don't think he'll average a lot more minutes. Robinson is the master of rotation and managing workload. There will be a game or 2 where the Roosters are winning big and Tauk gets a rest to give a bench guy a long stint. You have to account for that in your planning.

The goalkicking is a nice bonus, but I am not sure he'll get a lot more other than that, and I think he needs more than just goalkicking extras to be a purchase

100%, and this is why looking at his average for games over 50 mins is risky. He's going to have those low min games

Just don't get the SST love with Radley back and Collins having played Origin last year. He ain't getting consistent big minute games unless a back goes down every game or they aren't putting on a cricket score.

EDIT: Competition for minutes with Radley, Liu, Collins, JWH and Butcher all capable of playing 40 minutes +.

rhinoceroo wrote:
I'm coming round to SST. Also Tupounuia, who passes my eye test and is underpriced due to time on interchange.

However then I remind myself what a nightmare it is to own Roosters forwards with Trent Robinson  chopping and changing and generally giving them roles and minutes that suit a particular game as it's happening rather than fantasy.

Tupounuia looks good because he can make some barnstorming runs, but his fantasy scores aren't that exciting.

Only 3 scores higher than 40 in his 11 edge starts. He really needs tries to score enough. There are a few forwards around for which you can count on tries as base stats, but I am not sure he is one of them.

I think he's going to have a bunch of scores you don't want to see with the odd massive score to keep you interested.

Depending on how Radley has recovered, I'm more tempted by Radley to average above 50 at his price point.