NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 3 - Closer

Milchcow wrote:

Tupounuia looks good because he can make some barnstorming runs, but his fantasy scores aren't that exciting.

Only 3 scores higher than 40 in his 11 edge starts. He really needs tries to score enough. There are a few forwards around for which you can count on tries as base stats, but I am not sure he is one of them.

I think he's going to have a bunch of scores you don't want to see with the odd massive score to keep you interested.

I think he's value, priced at 36 with a 43.5 average as a starter last year and he has improvement in him. Question is if he's *enough* value given the Davey/Riki options who should make more cash from a lower base, but if one or two of them don't make their starting sides then Tupounuia comes into the equation.

Honey Badger wrote:

I think the difference is you've only got 4 gun players that can comfortably average 50+. Most teams that go cheaper at ctr can fit at least 5 of those gun players in

But if you are affording 5 guns by playing Averillo and Niu as your starting centres, it may not end up better in the long term. Especially if one of them goes down and you can't afford a scoring replacement.

If your cheap CTRs fire from the start then you are laughing, so guess it depends on how confident you are they'll perform

Iron Mike wrote:Depending on how Radley has recovered, I'm more tempted by Radley to average above 50 at his price point.

Not sure Radley is ready for round one but could be one to keep an eye on, particularly if he has a couple of low minute games to ease back.

50 for a mid isnt close to being a keeper, they are basically an expensive cash cow until you need to upgrade them.

Chris Garry reckons release today for Macca.

He also says the Broncos are looking to sign Levi as a backup. Hahahahahahahahahah

(Levi has signed to norths devils in q cup)

rhinoceroo wrote:

I think he's value, priced at 36 with a 43.5 average as a starter last year and he has improvement in him. Question is if he's *enough* value given the Davey/Riki options who should make more cash from a lower base, but if one or two of them don't make their starting sides then Tupounuia comes into the equation.

His average is 43, but look at the distribution of his scores. From 11 games he only has 1 score between 40 and 75. Its go big or go home.

His floor is quite low. Now its entirely possible that we'll get improvement in his game now that he is a regular starter that will lift his floor up enough to make him valuable. he is still quite young so its a valid consideration.

Does Nat Butcher play any edge this year, even off the bench ?

rhinoceroo wrote:

I think he's value, priced at 36 with a 43.5 average as a starter last year and he has improvement in him. Question is if he's *enough* value given the Davey/Riki options who should make more cash from a lower base, but if one or two of them don't make their starting sides then Tupounuia comes into the equation.

In 7 of 11 starts scoring between 21 and 38 that will do your head in, having paid $485k for a cash cow. Better to go cheaper to Koala, Blore, Davey / Olakau'atu, Riki, CHN, BMM or Ford.

mattnz wrote:50 for a mid isnt close to being a keeper, they are basically an expensive cash cow until you need to upgrade them.

I get what you're saying, in that it would be easy enough to get 3-4 MIDs averaging over 55 by season end in theory.

But looking at it more holistically, even the very best teams with trades in hand and few injuries still have a couple of (not CTR) 45-50 players in their 17-18 by the end.

So in that sense, SST is very close to being a keeper already. Unless you think the likes of JWH, Leilua and MoFo last season weren't keepers.

Personally I think SST will average low 50s, wouldn't surprise me if JWH is the one with reduced minutes to accomodate Radley and Collins getting a bit more.

He's one of a few gun forwards in the mix for me, and it'll really come down to which cheap MID and EDG players are actually named, then how much $ that leaves me, and where I need the cover more out of those positions.

EDIT: Occurs to me you might be talking about Radley, but the principle still applies I think.

mattnz wrote:50 for a mid isnt close to being a keeper, they are basically an expensive cash cow until you need to upgrade them.

Are you talking about Radley here? He is priced at 39, so if he can average 50+ he doesn't need to be a keeper that is probably good enough value.

Given he is under an injury cloud and may not start round 1, he is not someone I've really looked at, but a quick check of his stats suggests 45-50 is more likely than 50+

my tv broke wrote:Chris Garry reckons release today for Macca.

He also says the Broncos are looking to sign Levi as a backup.  Hahahahahahahahahah

(Levi has signed to norths devils in q cup)

Maybe a Turpin/Paix/Levi system through the hookers this year. I guess it is a decent move management wise… Turpin has proven to be more than serviceable out of hooker in the past and Levi has NRL experience, plus Levi would be coming over on pretty much match payments leaving money left over for a mid-season signing?... if they haven’t already got their top 30?

my tv broke wrote:Does Nat Butcher play any edge this year, even off the bench ?

With Cordner out long term, I suspect he'll play some edge at times. Assuming Crichton and Tupouniua start, who else have they go that will play there?

my tv broke wrote:Chris Garry reckons release today for Macca.

He also says the Broncos are looking to sign Levi as a backup.  Hahahahahahahahahah

(Levi has signed to norths devils in q cup)

As much as I find this likely bit of business by the Dragons uninspiring, would seriously consider Macca at R1 if this goes through as expected.

Milchcow wrote:

With Cordner out long term, I suspect he'll play some edge at times. Assuming Crichton and Tupouniua start, who else have they go that will play there?

The other Fifita is a prop/2rf. In the talking league podcast Fitzgibbon was talking up Keighran as the new Aubs (he's not terrible looking, Fitz, but come on...) in terms of utility value, so maybe him. Butcher would make more sense though.

Milchcow wrote:

With Cordner out long term, I suspect he'll play some edge at times. Assuming Crichton and Tupouniua start, who else have they go that will play there?

They have a few young kids coming through the system that actually look really good… Fletcher Baker missed the second half of 2019 and all of 2020 but looks about 1-2 years away still… Egan Butcher, brother of Nat, and apparently the better of the two. Grew up making Union rep teams and signed by the Roosters has a big engine and a rig too.

But other than that they don't have any out and out second rowers

Milchcow wrote:

But if you are affording 5 guns by playing Averillo and Niu as your starting centres, it may not end up better in the long term. Especially if one of them goes down and you can't afford a scoring replacement.

If your cheap CTRs fire from the start then you are laughing, so guess it depends on how confident you are they'll perform

Ideally you'd be able to afford that 5th gun and only play one of Averillo or Niu paired with a higher priced ctr, and have one in your emg. Starting with two higher priced ctrs like Gagai and Kelly you're pretty much sacrificing another consistent 50+ scorer in the forwards.

robelgordo wrote:

I get what you're saying, in that it would be easy enough to get 3-4 MIDs averaging over 55 by season end in theory.

But looking at it more holistically, even the very best teams with trades in hand and few injuries still have a couple of (not CTR) 45-50 players in their 17-18 by the end.

So in that sense, SST is very close to being a keeper already. Unless you think the likes of JWH, Leilua and MoFo last season weren't keepers.

Personally I think SST will average low 50s, wouldn't surprise me if JWH is the one with reduced minutes to accomodate Radley and Collins getting a bit more.

He's one of a few gun forwards in the mix for me, and it'll really come down to which cheap MID and EDG players are actually named, then how much $ that leaves me, and where I need the cover more out of those positions.

The change to MID and EDG really changed the dynamics of what is a keeper in each position, based on averages from last year.

Edge Keepers:

Crichton 62
Harris 60
Matterson 60
Daylight
Other edges all 55 or less

Really need to finish the season with at least 2 of these 3, or have found another edge with a 60 average over the season.

Mid Keepers:

McInnes 72 (likely drops this season but still probably top 3, but could equally be played at hooker - well actually best in 14-17 for coverage)
Haas 72 (likely drops this season but still probably top 3)
Crichton 62 - but you want him on the edge
Lolo - 61
Harris 60 - but you want him on the edge
Carrigan 60 - likely drops but still probably in top 10
Yeo - 58
Everyone else 55 or less

Note that only Haas on this list was a prop last season! Big Changes!

So likely need to have McInnes, Haas, Lolo and have found this season's 60+ per game Mid players to have back ups in your 14-17, (or more likely have them as starting Mids, with Harris or Crichton in your 14-17 for cover).

Its interesting to note that when comparing Hookers where typically end of season we have all loaded up, only McInnes stands out with a 72 average. All other top hookers were in the 60-63 range - Cook, Grant, Koro, then a gap to the next tier which included Hunt, who wont be repeating and Macca (54) the only other Hooker with more than 54 average.

You will need to be loading up on Gun Edges and Mids to maximise scoring if it is similar this season. 50-55 averages won't be competitive at the end of the season in that position.

Last season was different to this season, less rounds, less trades to reach a gun team and massive disruptions that caused more trades to be made on resumption, and CTR can't possibly be this bad this season, many wasted half their trades on it. You will need lots of these guys listed, plus Cleary and Moses or DCE, Ponga, Teddy and the next WFB that really guns it this season getting close to them.

Milchcow wrote:

Are you talking about Radley here?  He is priced at 39, so if he can average 50+ he doesn't need to be a keeper that is probably good enough value.

Given he is under an injury cloud and may not start round 1, he is not someone I've really looked at, but a quick check of his stats suggests 45-50 is more likely than 50+

Any Mid player that you are buying in mid-range expecting low 50s from, shouldn't be in your team at the end of the season if you have gunned up. See my other post for the details.

robelgordo wrote:

As much as I find this likely bit of business by the Dragons uninspiring, would seriously consider Macca at R1 if this goes through as expected.

IT RINGS ALARM BELLS FOR ME AVOID MCINNES

Rabbits21 wrote:

IT RINGS ALARM BELLS FOR ME AVOID MCINNES

No need to shout mate haha. I have McInnes in my draft - but it was put together before all this nonsense emerged. He still might be a 80 min lock averaging 70, despite off-field dramas. But it is starting to look like a risky proposition.