NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 3 - Closer

mattnz wrote:
In my team today. Averaged 57 from round 11 onwards, the same as Moses did for the season, but $100k less cost and plays round 13. Team is on the up, will be putting Fifita into holes.

To me that's a cherry picked form purple patch run, will need to up his KM to match Moses long term or increase his attacking output again. Plus hasn't there been reports of Fog with Proctor and Taylor with DFifi

Munster has some serious value with a return to previous fantasy form adding +5 to his average and potential for me with no Smith and additional responsibility in attacking zone

Mearcats wrote:

Whether he played it or not, I stand by my point. Both plodders by definition. If the sharks give em those sorta minutes then they've got problems.

Always liked Tolman for his effort at least, Woods been shit for years

If no McInnes and no Lolo or Haas apart from the guns I already have (Cleary, Munster, Fifita, Tedesco) none seem too apealing

Welshy wrote:

To me that's a cherry picked form purple patch run, will need to up his KM to match Moses long term or increase his attacking output again. Plus hasn't there been reports of Fog with Proctor and Taylor with DFifi

Munster has some serious value with a return to previous fantasy form adding +5 to his average and potential for me with no Smith and additional responsibility in attacking zone

Its not unusual for a rookie to improve over their first season as they find their feet and are given the reigns of the team, as he was by the coach. It also coincided with Titans finding form and having Brimson available. This season they will be at least as good as the end of season titans, not resembling their start of season form. No reason that he can't repeat that again this season.

And it isn't really cherry picking if it is half of the season

Got my first Draft comp tomorrow night, I have pick number 2.
I’m expecting Cleary will be snapped up.
I’m still looking at going with McInnes.
I don’t trust rumours from a fans forum.
Regardless of whether he’s at the Dragons or the Sharks he’s going to play big minutes and be a top 10 scorer at the end of the season.
He has DPP and is not currently an Origin player, although I don’t discount that as a possibility.
Anyone want to talk me out of it?

mattnz wrote:
Its not unusual for a rookie to improve over their first season as they find their feet and are given the reigns of the team, as he was by the coach. It also coincided with Titans finding form and having Brimson available. This season they will be at least as good as the end of season titans, not resembling their start of season form. No reason that he can't repeat that again this season.

Absolutely not and he was a great story last year, my point was there isn't any real evidence that his score will improve on last season (low minutes starting, injuries games etc)

even his KM from R11 are only up 71km a game on his average.

Chucky wrote:Got my first Draft comp tomorrow night, I have pick number 2.
I’m expecting Cleary will be snapped up.
I’m still looking at going with McInnes.
I don’t trust rumours from a fans forum.
Regardless of whether he’s at the Dragons or the Sharks he’s going to play big minutes and be a top 10 scorer at the end of the season.
He has DPP and is not currently an Origin player, although I don’t discount that as a possibility.
Anyone want to talk me out of it?

Tedesco

FalconSloth wrote:And it isn't really cherry picking if it is half of the season

No but you can't just discount the previous 11 rounds either lol I'm not saying he's a bad pick but I don't think he's a huge amount of value there, especially expecting a 57 average with his KM totals no where near the elite (Cleary, Moses, DCE)

Chucky wrote:Got my first Draft comp tomorrow night, I have pick number 2.
I’m expecting Cleary will be snapped up.
I’m still looking at going with McInnes.
I don’t trust rumours from a fans forum.
Regardless of whether he’s at the Dragons or the Sharks he’s going to play big minutes and be a top 10 scorer at the end of the season.
He has DPP and is not currently an Origin player, although I don’t discount that as a possibility.
Anyone want to talk me out of it?

Still a decent pick In a draft comp, just not for the extra dollars in the main game.

Having said that, if I had the number two pick in draft I'd be going for whichever of Cleary or DCE hasn't gone first, or maybe Ted as someone way ahead in his position.

Welshy wrote:

No but you can't just discount the previous 11 rounds either lol I'm not saying he's a bad pick but I don't think he's a huge amount of value there, especially expecting a 57 average with his KM totals no where near the elite (Cleary, Moses, DCE)

But you can argue that his first few games were him finding his feet.

How fucked is this shit house website. After all these years it's still amateur hour.

I'm trying to get my mates draft league going. The draft time keeps changing. The league settings keep defaulting back to not allowing a final series and not playing through the bye rounds.

What's the best way to contact these Muppets or does anyone have a solution ?

Holy Moly wrote:

But you can argue that his first few games were him finding his feet.

You certainly can mate I just don't think his km totals are high enough to consistently put him at the elite fantasy level. Maintaining a high attacking output without the higher base. Only seen Munster do it

FalconSloth wrote:And it isn't really cherry picking if it is half of the season

In that case, Moses 2nd half of the year was 10 points better than Fogarty's whole season

Welshy wrote:

You certainly can mate I just don't think his km totals are high enough to consistently put him at the elite fantasy level. Maintaining a high attacking output without the higher base. Only seen Munster do it

Pretty much this. The top tier halves kick the shit out of the ball every week and usually kick goals too.

Fogs biggest fan here but he will be hard pressed to elevate to elite level half. 55avg is probably his ceiling imo (forum bet anyone?)

Everyone expects titans to do well but that still remains to be seen. They arent the storm or the roosters, it wont surprise me if they take a month or two to get going, they arent just gonna turn up and blow teams off the park from round 1

Welshy wrote:

You certainly can mate I just don't think his km totals are high enough to consistently put him at the elite fantasy level. Maintaining a high attacking output without the higher base. Only seen Munster do it

I agree with that. He has been in my team a couple of times as the cheapest player who I'd feel comfortable with running alongside cleary and who has a slight upside due to a hopefully improving Titans and decent fantasy scoring at the back end of 2020. And, I've never watched him play - league is mostly just fantasy for me.

Welshy wrote:

You certainly can mate I just don't think his km totals are high enough to consistently put him at the elite fantasy level. Maintaining a high attacking output without the higher base. Only seen Munster do it

Across the season, Fogarty averaged 283 km, Flanagan just 257 with a 54 average.

In the period we are discussing when Fogarty averaged 57, he averaged 331 km, an extra 3 points per game on Flanagan. Would put him right on the 57 we are looking for.

Dylan Brown is another example, just 109 km on average, but scored 55 average. Missing another 11 points per game on Fogarty in km. Would put his ceiling in the 66 points per game range.

Wow, get busy for a full day and you miss 10 pages!

Still haven't made a draft but the way things are shaping up, starting with Cook, Cleary and even Matterson will firmly be the base of my first draft.

Depending on Cleary I still really like Cook as a keeper captain for that price.

This is the busiest day I've seen for a while. The fantasy fever is heating up.

mattnz wrote:

Across the season, Fogarty averaged 283 km, Flanagan just 257 with a 54 average.

In the period we are discussing when Fogarty averaged 57, he averaged 331 km, an extra 3 points per game on Flanagan. Would put him right on the 57 we are looking for.

Dylan Brown is another example, just 109 km on average, but scored 55 average. Missing another 11 points per game on Fogarty in km.  Would put his ceiling in the 66 points per game range.

Fuck me dead. 66 point ceiling average, each to their own mate.

Flanno was also kicking goals. +8 points. For top 2 side in comp. Can't cherry pick