NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 7 - Trial edition

MS 2nd of Feb wrote:

Bit of a deep dive into Cleary to see how repeatable his scores are

Firstly breaking them down year by year into attacking and base



As we can see most of his upside this season came from a huge increase in base points, with his attacking points staying relatively in line with career averages

Further breaking down his base we can see why



Put simply, for the first time in his career Cleary was playing next to a half that doesn't kick the ball. KM as a stat is heavily dependent on gameflow(kicking out of your own half regularly, not camped on the opposition 20 through dropped ball or forward pack dominating metres)

So how does this compare to other dominant kickers?

Moses 453.6
DCE 417.4
Lewis 422.4
Pearce 372.8
Reynolds 393.3

While Cleary is at the top per game, his stats aren't outside the realm of realistic. If we assume Luai will take on a bit more as well as game flow going a little again Cleary by "normalising" to 400 km per game instead of 500, his average would still be a lofty 67.


tl;dr - Unless you think Luai takes another step or Panthers become much better, Cleary's scores are largely repeatable

RandomSil wrote:@Moanaman

I dont think there is much to say about Koroisau as his situation doesnt really change at all. No significant changes to the Panthers team. I mean the biggest change is them losing Mansour so they lose some of those hard yards he makes down his own end a little with hitups and returning the ball. Which is such a minute change that it doesn't have much of an effect.

The only other factor is the ball in play time, with the new rule changes and again this is a minor roll on effect. From the Panthers vs Eels trial one half added 5 minutes more than the average NRL half last year of ball in play time. While this is a lot for argument sake, lets say the new rule change adds only an extra 5 minutes of ball in play time throughout 80 minutes. (Half what added in the trial)

That means the old average of 54 minutes of ball in play last year bumps up to the new average would be 59 minutes. Giving Koroisau a player who gets the bulk of his points through consistent means in tackling an extra 5 minutes of tackling.

Koroisau averaged 50 tackles a game which is almost a tackle a minute, in the extra five minutes Koroisau should see a slight bump in his tackle count to 54 tackle average.

Koroisau also made the third most runs from dummy half last year with 103, and will now be up against even more tired defenders. With only minimal attacking stats last year 4 Tries, 4 TAs, 5 LB, 4 LBA, and an average of 2 TBs per game. There is every reason he can increase his attacking productivity through the middle with more tired defenders.

So in summary, there isnt any reason Koroisau should regress, but there is a slight uptick in base stats that could see him get 4 or 5 points extra a game. While there is the potential for his attacking stats to grow. (Lets just hope he stays an 80 minute player.)

easytiger wrote:
[/spoiler]

The rhetoric around Brooks stepping up is as much of a preseason routine as trial matches are.

FWIW My gut feeling is that Brooks does step up to a ~50 average this year.

The empirical evidence presented by his annual averages suggest otherwise;
2014 - 25.0 (yes, this is from a 79.7minute average across 21 games) - Dally M Rookie award
2015 - 33.3
2016 - 31.0
2017 - 36.1
2018 - 40.5 - Dally M Best Halfback
2019 - 52.5
2020 - 40.6

So, ah, which year is the outlier?

PS> Can't believe I saw someone ask "Brooks OR Cleary?" (a sentence never uttered in the history of Fantasy until the other day)

mattnz wrote:For those saying that Suaali isn't close to first grade debut, have a look at their backs depth, covering Center, Wing and Fullback. After the starters, they have a wing in Ikavalu, Smith is injured until mid-season. Suaalii is their only other option covering 5 positions. An injury in centers or fullback should see Suaalii starting.

robelgordo wrote:

If they buy him a fake ID?

mattnz wrote:
No, when he has the already promised exemption

L-Jimmy wrote:Fox sports has a few interesting starters listed that would mess with my team. Just goes to show how fragile everything is on TLT.

Alvaro, LAM, Leinu, Dunn, Turpin, Goosie...... all could rock into the team.

Suspect this means i’m not cow/gun enough

mattnz wrote:For those saying that Suaali isn't close to first grade debut, have a look at their backs depth, covering Center, Wing and Fullback. After the starters, they have a wing in Ikavalu, Smith is injured until mid-season. Suaalii is their only other option covering 5 positions. An injury in centers or fullback should see Suaalii starting.

robelgordo wrote:

Source?

L-Jimmy wrote:Fox sports has a few interesting starters listed that would mess with my team. Just goes to show how fragile everything is on TLT.

Alvaro, LAM, Leinu, Dunn, Turpin, Goosie...... all could rock into the team.

Suspect this means i’m not cow/gun enough

rhinoceroo wrote:

Some.of those teams are comical.

mattnz wrote:

V'landys said the Commission would look to change the game's rules in both Suaalii's case and others further down the line.

“This young gentlemen is a real exception. But any club is able to make an application on this or any matter.”

zim wrote:Tino has moved to top of the ownership percentages after the trials. Top 10 is

Tino 35%
Watson 33
Cleary 33
Riki 32
Pap 30
Niu 30
Liddle 29
Fifita 29
Averillo 27
Teddy and Munster 25

robelgordo wrote:

That doesn’t seem a promise.

FWIW I suspect they will make an exception for him, because V’Landys is a maverick like that and also because Roosters.

easytiger wrote:

Looks to me like there are two spots left to fill in the Roosters 30. So a good chance they sign a couple of international/origin quality backs...

easytiger wrote:
[/spoiler]

The rhetoric around Brooks stepping up is as much of a preseason routine as trial matches are.

FWIW My gut feeling is that Brooks does step up to a ~50 average this year.

The empirical evidence presented by his annual averages suggest otherwise;
2014 - 25.0 (yes, this is from a 79.7minute average across 21 games) - Dally M Rookie award
2015 - 33.3
2016 - 31.0
2017 - 36.1
2018 - 40.5 - Dally M Best Halfback
2019 - 52.5
2020 - 40.6

So, ah, which year is the outlier?

PS> Can't believe I saw someone ask "Brooks OR Cleary?" (a sentence never uttered in the history of Fantasy until the other day)

Welshy wrote:

Getting confused with Eels middle rotation now with the talk of Paulo 80 and Lane moving to middle