NRL Fantasy 2021 - In my opinion, this is part 8

my tv broke wrote:

uh oh

Ruhhh Rohhh.

On the Storm they have a tough opening with Rabbitohs, Eels, Panthers in opening 3 and Roosters in round 6.
Making me think I can wait on Papy to hopefully drop some cash. Eyeing a Hoy to papy play round 4/5 hopefully for circa $150k

Finucane diagnosis changed to high grade ankle tear (not calf). Similar timeframe (6 weeks, R4-5 return). source: NRL physio who sourced from Storm Twitter.

Welshy wrote:
Waddell still high up the list, regardless of how bad he was in trial his 80 average is still over 40. I really want BMM but can’t see a clear bigger minutes role I want from him to absorb his non attack attacking games

He had a bad game in the trial but that isn't terribly fantasy relevant imo. Its not too much different to picking guys in your team because they scored a try in a trial.

If he gets 80 mins he should be a decent enough pick. He's shown in the past he has a decent work rate. Just not sure if he is locked in or if Elliot takes his spot when RFM is good to go, assuming RFM is still an edge forward? think he is. He's probably a miss for me.

Welshy wrote:
Waddell still high up the list, regardless of how bad he was in trial his 80 average is still over 40. I really want BMM but can’t see a clear bigger minutes role I want from him to absorb his non attack attacking games

I'm starting to feel like Curran at $246K might be the play. $400-$450k players are going to be slower burns re Waddell/Kolomatangi. If Davey starts he will play very close to 80 and score just as well, I can rely on him to be in 17.

Coach said Curran had won a start in the trial on pre season form and that he was unsure how he was going to use BMM.
Katoa obviously starts left edge if fit with Murchie/BMM capable of playing middle roles. So many unknowns with Warriors forwards I would only go for a base price guy.

Iron Mike wrote:On the Storm they have a tough opening with Rabbitohs, Eels, Panthers in opening 3 and Roosters in round 6.
Making me think I can wait on Papy to hopefully drop some cash. Eyeing a Hoy to papy play round 4/5 hopefully for circa $150k

Last year Pappy scored 35 and 75 against the Rabbits, 54 and 66 against the Eels, 31 and 38 against the Panthers and 31 x 2 against the Roosters with only 4 tries in those 8 games... That is an average of 45.13 against those sides last year. Add in goal kicking (+4) and that bumps up to 49.13 which is his current BE. Can't see him losing cash. Also those 30's could easily become 40's with 1 more TB, 10 more running metres, a LB....

You should never base your pick of matchups as it is often the close games yield higher scores.

my tv broke wrote:

He had a bad game in the trial but that isn't terribly fantasy relevant imo. Its not too much different to picking guys in your team because they scored a try in a trial.

If he gets 80 mins he should be a decent enough pick. He's shown in the past he has a decent work rate. Just not sure if he is locked in or if Elliot takes his spot when RFM is good to go, assuming RFM is still an edge forward? think he is. He's probably a miss for me.

Most the toss ups are all down to role mate so agree, some will pop up TLT as well and same discussion about longevity in that role will happen again haha

Jumping Marlin wrote:Having second thoughts about Bird.

Just reviewed his career stats and they’re not as good as I’d recalled.  Mid 30s average at centre, so not huge upside from price of 28.   Been out of footy for a while.  Injury prone.

There is that risk he could be a flop and not be the junk point tackle breaker he was in 2019 but personally the potential of racking up those junk points makes him a more appealing option to me than other CTR's around that price range like Momo or Hopoate.

Welshy wrote:
Capewell has enough sample size for me where I can’t see the uptick past 5-7 points increase so just makes him too middie for me. Reckon I can get that from Riki for cheaper

He reminds me of Hess last year.  Decent mid price and had a few decent games but in the end, didn't net any worthwhile cash and didn't get the points needed.  He just plugged a hole until he was traded out.  Capewell gives me the same vibes.  Quality player but won't get the surge of points needed to justify the price tag.  So many other cheap options worth punting on first.

Iron Mike wrote:

I'm starting to feel like Curran at $246K might be the play. $400-$450k players are going to be slower burns re Waddell/Kolomatangi. If Davey starts he will play very close to 80 and score just as well, I can rely on him to be in 17.

Coach said Curran had won a start in the trial on pre season form and that he was unsure how he was going to use BMM.
Katoa obviously starts left edge if fit with Murchie/BMM capable of playing middle roles. So many unknowns with Warriors forwards I would only go for a base price guy.

Curran was really bad defensively. The Tino try was Curran getting burned for pace, didn't get near him..

StormTrooper96 wrote:

Last year Pappy scored 35 and 75 against the Rabbits, 54 and 66 against the Eels, 31 and 38 against the Panthers and 31 x 2 against the Roosters with only 4 tries in those 8 games... That is an average of 45.13 against those sides last year. Add in goal kicking (+4) and that bumps up to 49.13 which is his current BE. Can't see him losing cash. Also those 30's could easily become 40's with 1 more TB, 10 more running metres, a LB....

You should never base your pick of matchups as it is often the close games yield higher scores.

Regardless, those averages against those teams mean fuck all anyway. Every game against teams good or bad creates different opportunities which sometimes get taken and sometimes don’t.

Everyone mentioned Teddy always going shit against the Storm the he busted a huge game against them with an 82.

wolfking wrote:

Niu WFB only.

If Niu gets named to start at CTR R1 he gets DPP. (if)

Milchcow wrote:

Nah, he's just a slow starter, let him drop price in the early rounds and pick him up when he's cheaper.

Not that I use ownership when selecting players, but Luai is owned by like 9% of players, so seems some people genuinely like easytiger's logic.

Not sure if that makes POD lovers more or less optimistic about his scoring.

At the time I was being somewhat satirical in attempting to highlight that there is an inherent risk to pick a late run of form and expect it just to continue into an entirely new season.

A little on the basis that probably no-one would pick Luai to be in their fantasy team to start the season (the 9% ownership tells me my opinion on this is wrong).

Nevertheless, an injury free season is 23 (SOO) or 24 games if you play them all.
There are very few halves that have managed to achieve a gun level average across a whole season (Cleary, DCE, almost Moses) and those that do:

Welshy wrote:kick the absolute piss out of the ball in general play which highers their floor

Maybe Fogarty will become that, he may well do, but it's pretty hard to say he's locked-in for being an elite Gun half based on one season of Football and an unusual run of hot form by his team.
GK is definitely a plus.

easytiger wrote:

At the time I was being somewhat satirical in attempting to highlight that there is an inherent risk to pick a late run of form and expect it just to continue into an entirely new season.

A little on the basis that probably no-one would pick Luai to be in their fantasy team to start the season (the 9% ownership tells me my opinion on this is wrong).

Nevertheless, an injury free season is 23 (SOO) or 24 games if you play them all.
There are very few halves that have managed to achieve a gun level average across a whole season (Cleary, DCE, almost Moses) and those that do:



Maybe Fogarty will become that, he may well do, but it's pretty hard to say he's locked-in for being an elite Gun half based on one season of Football and an unusual run of hot form by his team.
GK is definitely a plus.

I’m 100% behind this reasoning mate! It’s stupid tough to maintain that level of fantasy scoring week in week out. And a reason why only a few have stayed consistently at that level.

By the way Fog, finished the season scoring 22. Already hit and fallen off his fantasy peak  

StormTrooper96 wrote:

Last year Pappy scored 35 and 75 against the Rabbits, 54 and 66 against the Eels, 31 and 38 against the Panthers and 31 x 2 against the Roosters with only 4 tries in those 8 games... That is an average of 45.13 against those sides last year. Add in goal kicking (+4) and that bumps up to 49.13 which is his current BE. Can't see him losing cash. Also those 30's could easily become 40's with 1 more TB, 10 more running metres, a LB....

You should never base your pick of matchups as it is often the close games yield higher scores.

I'm not saying he can't average 50 straight off the bat but with that draw I'm more inclined to think that I can wait on him. Rounds 4, 6 and 8 last year vs Rabbitohs, Panthers and Roosters he averaged 32. He could pump out a 60 average or it could be more like 40, I tend to think he may start slower as the Storm could be a little clunky with some personnel changes.

Welshy wrote:By the way Fog, finished the season scoring 22. Already hit and fallen off his fantasy peak  

you can't count that though because it doesnt count.

my tv broke wrote:

you can't count that though because it doesnt count.

Yeah I know because it doesn’t match his average. I’m not dumb mate

Welshy wrote:
Yeah I know because it doesn’t match his average. I’m not dumb mate

Its an outlier. The titans had their biggest win of the season. Unlikely for that to continue in 2021

my tv broke wrote:

Its an outlier. The titans had their biggest win of the season. Unlikely for that to continue in 2021

Why you talk about your team like dis?

wolfking wrote:

He reminds me of Hess last year.  Decent mid price and had a few decent games but in the end, didn't net any worthwhile cash and didn't get the points needed.  He just plugged a hole until he was traded out.  Capewell gives me the same vibes.  Quality player but won't get the surge of points needed to justify the price tag.  So many other cheap options worth punting on first.

Surely Martin and Kikau are the starters unless Matin has fallen off a cliff. He played well starting in the second row last year.