NRL Draftstars 2021

I didn't know that either lol.

Teeth Eater wrote:

FFFFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCCCCCCCCCCCCCCKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK!!!!!

lol, thanks mate. As soon as I saw you post I immediately opened the Draftstars page and I was all like, wtf is this guy talking abou-KAZAAM!! A massive SWAP tab staring me right in the face. In fact, it's all I could see on the page. Fucking hell.

Anyway, thanks heaps for letting me know for future me. Man I'm a dickhead.

Ah man wish I'd seen and replied earlier! Tbh you would have probably swapped to hunt and he didn't do too well either!

Dttragic2016 wrote:

Ah man wish I'd seen and replied earlier! Tbh you would have probably swapped to hunt and he didn't do too well either!

Yep, I swapped him out to Hunt in the single Manly vs Dragons match, so yeah, would have done the same in the joint one and like you say, wouldn't really have mattered in the end anyway.

By far the bet of the day: Host @ 7.50 on Neds ATS.
Souths obviously huge favourites against the Dogs, odds are way better than what they should be & what they are on other sites. They've priced him as a bench mid rather than a bench edge player who should play half the game off the edge.

For this week's NRL preview article we look at how the Eels will go without Moses, Taumalolo's drop off in numbers this year as well as how teams have gone against top 6 opposition and against the spread in 2021: https://sporttechdaily.com/our-insights/your-edge-how-teams-fare-against-the-top-6-missing-moses-is-it-taumalolos-time/

Data for first & anytime tryscorer + draftstars updated here: https://edge.sporttechdaily.com/nrl

My best plays for the first game are Jacob Saifiti 81 fts 365 and Nat Butcher fts 2nd half 81 on TAB.
Data updated for t:ryscorers and draftstars: https://edge.sporttechdaily.com/nrl

Had J. Papalii in my team last night, Billy Smith and Ikavalu in tonight's team. I think I said it earlier in the year, but if the point of Draftstars was to pick players that get HIAs or injuries, I'd have made thousands this year!

Teeth Eater wrote:Had J. Papalii in my team last night, Billy Smith and Ikavalu in tonight's team. I think I said it earlier in the year, but if the point of Draftstars was to pick players that get HIAs or injuries, I'd have made thousands this year!

Haha nice! Did you get on my Jsaifiti pick?? 81s fts!

Dttragic2016 wrote:

Haha nice! Did you get on my Jsaifiti pick?? 81s fts!

Yeah mate, was all over him. Sadly, one injury undoes everything else... two leaves you in the bottom few spaces of the entire comp.

Want to clarify that we use the odds comparison (6 betting sites) and model odds to identify the best value plays and this is all for free so we aren't a tipping/subscription service. Data updates for draftstars & tryscorers today: https://edge.sporttechdaily.com/nrl

Reasoning for some of my favourite value picks below:

FTS
Hetherington 91 SB - way higher odder on SB than other sites, aggressive ball runner and best value fts play for our model by far for the Broncos game.

FTS2H
Arrow 81 TAB - 81 for a player on a team paying 1.12 is crazy, obviously way higher than on other sites and will come on to play either side of HT so will be fresh and raring to go.
Ethan Bullemor 101 TAB - has shown to be really good at running into open spaces, should get a decent crack in a weaker Broncos pack.

ATS
Cody Walker 2.40 TAB - Understrength Warriors team, noted tryscorer + noticeably better odds than other sites.
Haumalo Olakau'atu 3.1 SB - Can almost use the same logic as Walker above + with Turbo back, Manly should lap the Tigers!

**Value NRL Try Scorer Plays ** https://edge.sporttechdaily.com/nrl

FTS & FTS 2nd Half

FTS - Andrew McCullough 76 SB
FTS - Mo Fotuaika 81 TAB
FTS - Josh Kerr 81 TAB
FTS 2H - Braden Uele 61 SB

ATS

Andrew McCullough 10 SB
Braden Uele 8.5 SB

Reasoning: Uele especially is amazing odds given his career strike rate. The others are more for value compared to other sites' odds for them + our model thinks they're great value and they are crazy good odds compared to their historical strike rate for those markets too. Good luck lads!

Broke even across Saturday and Sunday and have decided to strike the combined contests off my to-do list - eg. the two games combined on Friday and Sunday and three on Saturday. Man I suck at these ones. Just going to stick to individual games from now on.

Our weekly article looks at how the Panthers will cope with To'o, Tedesco's evolution as a FB in a very different Roosters team & the battle for the Top 8: https://sporttechdaily.com/our-insights/your-edge-timeless-teddy-tackle-breaking-titans-battle-for-the-top-8/

Data tools updated for draftstars projections & tryscorer odds comparison for Round 20: https://edge.sporttechdaily.com/nrl

Teeth Eater wrote:Broke even across Saturday and Sunday and have decided to strike the combined contests off my to-do list - eg. the two games combined on Friday and Sunday and three on Saturday. Man I suck at these ones. Just going to stick to individual games from now on.

Yeah the multi game slates can be a weird one. You'd think they'd be easier to identify value players but from an entertainment POV as well it may be better to stick to the final game of the night if you're watching it too (as it also has bigger prizes) and focus on that? Slates have way smaller prizes too so if you're not doing well probably not worth it!

Dttragic2016 wrote:

Yeah the multi game slates can be a weird one. You'd think they'd be easier to identify value players but from an entertainment POV as well it may be better to stick to the final game of the night if you're watching it too (as it also has bigger prizes) and focus on that? Slates have way smaller prizes too so if you're not doing well probably not worth it!

Yeah, I'll test out some resistance this weekend and see how it goes.

Going to back our model in with a couple of ATS picks but definitely some juicy FTS odds for tonight's big Roosters Eels clash! As always you can check out the odds across 6 sites & our model odds as well as career strike rates for every player in every game on our Edge portal - https://edge.sporttechdaily.com/nrl

ATS
Drew Hutchison - 6.50 on SB
James Tedesco - 2.71 on Topsport
Both good odds compared to both our model's odds & historical career strike rate. Personally, I think the Roosters will do well tonight and Hutchison's strength is his running game and Teddy has a point to prove this season trying to carry the Roosters on his back!

FTS
Victor Radley 67 TAB
Nathan Brown 81 TAB
Radley is around fair price according to our model but almost twice the odds he should be compared to his career FTS strike rate! Brown is really good value on both counts and expecting a grinding game so middle forwards at good value to hard to miss here!

Did I have RCG in my team tonight? Of course.

Wasn't one of my main picks but was a few dollars short for JWH and thought he'd put up solid enough numbers.

Teeth Eater wrote:Did I have RCG in my team tonight? Of course.

Wasn't one of my main picks but was a few dollars short for JWH and thought he'd put up solid enough numbers.

Ah damn, that was a killer. Went to bed last night with a team in 3rd and winning the 5x rapidfire (20x your money if you get all 5 picks right)
Woke up, team dropped to 4th (was a $200 drop in prize money from memory) and Opacic lost out to Waqa by 0.4 so went from a $400 win to 0. Great start to a Friday haha.
We're actually partnering up with draftstars on a new data product to make making nrl dfs teams easier, will share it on here next Wednesday when it goes live!

Teeth Eater wrote:Did I have RCG in my team tonight? Of course.

Wasn't one of my main picks but was a few dollars short for JWH and thought he'd put up solid enough numbers.

Haha yeah I had both RCG and Blake so I was cooked early

Dttragic2016 wrote:

Ah damn, that was a killer. Went to bed last night with a team in 3rd and winning the 5x rapidfire (20x your money if you get all 5 picks right)
Woke up, team dropped to 4th (was a $200 drop in prize money from memory) and Opacic lost out to Waqa by 0.4 so went from a $400 win to 0. Great start to a Friday haha.
We're actually partnering up with draftstars on a new data product to make making nrl dfs teams easier, will share it on here next Wednesday when it goes live!

Sucks when the updates do that mate! Nice result though

That's awesome on the partnering with DS, looking forward to seeing it