NRL Draftstars 2021

BCT05 wrote:

Sucks when the updates do that mate! Nice result though

That's awesome on the partnering with DS, looking forward to seeing it

Cheers mate, if all goes well should hopefully be able to work with them on rugby league and cricket dfs promotion with our data tools & a weekly article.
Keen to see some more of your golf futures bets haha

Dttragic2016 wrote:

Ah damn, that was a killer. Went to bed last night with a team in 3rd and winning the 5x rapidfire (20x your money if you get all 5 picks right)
Woke up, team dropped to 4th (was a $200 drop in prize money from memory) and Opacic lost out to Waqa by 0.4 so went from a $400 win to 0. Great start to a Friday haha.
We're actually partnering up with draftstars on a new data product to make making nrl dfs teams easier, will share it on here next Wednesday when it goes live!

Really, that's intruiging mate, well done with the tie in with DF.

Nothing worse than the updates on Rapid Fire after the fact. U just know its going to switch back against you sometimes.

Dttragic2016 wrote:

Ah damn, that was a killer. Went to bed last night with a team in 3rd and winning the 5x rapidfire (20x your money if you get all 5 picks right)
Woke up, team dropped to 4th (was a $200 drop in prize money from memory) and Opacic lost out to Waqa by 0.4 so went from a $400 win to 0. Great start to a Friday haha.
We're actually partnering up with draftstars on a new data product to make making nrl dfs teams easier, will share it on here next Wednesday when it goes live!

Brutal, especially the rapid-fire one.

Congrats and looking forward to dfs announcement!

Should be a really exciting, high scoring night of action tonight. As always, our edge portal has the odds for each player across 6 sites compared to our model and historical odds to help you find the best value plays - all on https://edge.sporttechdaily.com/nrl

FTS Team - Joe Ofahengaue @ $67. Can get him for FTS @ $101, either way it's a great value play against a weakened Warriors pack. Way higher odds than other sites & and what our model odds have him priced at!

ATS - Tommy Talau on SB- repeat the reasoning for the weak Warriors team + our model loves the $2.75 for him ATS
FTS - Tom Dearden at $41 on Pointsbet. Way higher odds than other sites, model loves him at this price and with no Holmes and Hammer he needs to put his stamp on this team. Although the Broncos have Haas and Staggs the Cowboys can score points, so think it's a great value bet for him to sneak over early on.

Goes without saying that I had Laurie in match one. Seriously not kidding, if the aim of this thing was to pick injured players, in every single match, I'd have made millions this year.

Updated tryscorer + draftstars info on https://edge.sporttechdaily.com/nrl

Personal thoughts on value tryscorers for today:

First Tryscorer
Guler @ 67 on SB. Great up and coming player in a strong Raiders pack in good form. Great value according to model odds and can be found on $71-76 on SB as they change their odds.
Frizzell @ 41 on Pointsbet. Way better odds than other sites, great value bet according to model odds & hopefully Ponga can dish up a nice pass for him to get over early!
Arrow @ $81 on TAB. Almost double the odds as on other sites & our model odds + Rabbits strong favourites up against a weakened Dragons team. Best value play of the week according to our model.

Anytime Tryscorer
Keaon Koloa @ $3.75 on SB + Playup- similar logic to Arrow re weakened Dragons team. Plays left edge and then middle, been in great form too.
Tariq Sims @ $16 on TAB. Usually don't like middle forwards for strong outsider teams for ATS, however he's priced at 16 here where most sites have him less than 7 and our model has him at 14. Most importantly, there's a chance he plays part of the game on the edge, late mail on DT says they expect him to play on the edge. Would be the value play ATS bet of the weekend if he does.
Jahrome Hughes @2.83 on Topsport - one of our model's favourites most weeks, up against a weakened Panthers team.

Papalii benched, $51 on TAB first half 2nd tryscorer a great value bet also.

Will post up the Draftstars stuff tomorrow, tryscorer data updated for the round:

**Value Tryscorer Plays Round 21**

The better odds on value tryscorers disappear over a few hours on a Tuesday night so wanted to make sure I got this post up ASAP. As always, to look at every player and get the odds comparison + our model's projected odds and their career strike rate converted into odds so you can find the value bets yourself check out the Edge portal on the sporttechdaily site - https://edge.sporttechdaily.com/nrl

FTS
Enari Tuala - 11 Topsport. Left edge winger for the Knights, Ponga's favoured side. Staggs out and Pearce in describes my personal feelings about this game in 5 words. Coming off a hattrick against a better team last round too. Great value according to the model + better odds than other sites.

ATS
Euan Aitken - 4.33 SB - chance he shifts into centre and Katoa starts so could end up being even better value. Currently great value according to model odds & other sites.
Joseph Manu - 3.40 SB - 2nd best value pick of the week, has been on the ball a lot more recently and if Cleary ends up not playing this weekend (in #21 atm) this would be really good value for a Roosters team coming off a great win and a Panthers team that's not looking the same without Cleary!

Value NRL Tryscorer Play - Kevin Proctor First Tryscorer @ $34 on Bet365. Our model has him priced at 20, his career strike rate would have him priced at 23 so the $34 against an understrength Cowboys team is a great value bet!

Tryscorer & Draftstars projections all updated on Edge. Tonight's game is one of the biggest Thursday night games of the year.
https://edge.sporttechdaily.com/nrl


Article this week looks at Wighton & Taumalolo's dip in form and the battle for the top 4 & 8:
https://sporttechdaily.com/our-insights/your-edge-a-closer-look-at-wighton-and-taumalolo-blockbuster-clashes-in-round-21/

Have the Rapidfire 5 as of full time in Broncos vs Knights but Frizell is winning by 0.1 and Best by 2.9

Feels inevitable that updates swing one

Go to bed mate haha, make it a surprise in the morning.

Revraiser wrote:Go to bed mate haha,  make it a surprise in the morning.

I did just that haha and of course Barnett updated to take it over Friz

BCT05 wrote:

I did just that haha and of course Barnett updated to take it over Friz

Ah damn! I've been so close to winning a couple of them but same as you, updates have been cruel haha.

I was discussing this with a couple of friends, isn't the 5x rapidfire a crap deal?
2 to the power of 5 being 32 and we're getting 20x if we nail all 5 picks?

BCT05 wrote:

I did just that haha and of course Barnett updated to take it over Friz

Dttragic2016 wrote:

Ah damn! I've been so close to winning a couple of them but same as you, updates have been cruel haha.

I was discussing this with a couple of friends, isn't the 5x rapidfire a crap deal?
2 to the power of 5 being 32 and we're getting 20x if we nail all 5 picks?

Yeah Milchy pointed that out a while ago to MattNZ one time, when MattNZ nailed it thinking this was a piece of cake lol

But where else can u choose the same type of betting option ? It's great fun.

Mine updated also last night, got 4 of 5 and just missed out on the Farnsworth/Niu one.

Revraiser wrote:



Yeah Milchy pointed that out a while ago to MattNZ one time, when MattNZ nailed it thinking this was a piece of cake lol

But where else can u choose the same type of betting option ? It's great fun.

Mine updated also last night, got 4 of 5 and just missed out on the Farnsworth/Niu one.

Haha yep true. It is awesome fun but if no one else can think of a reason why it isn't shit value getting 20x for something that should be around a 1/32 chance then I might stop doing it. Max entered last night in the main game and high roller yesterday. It sounds scary but in most cases you end up around even (was about $100 up).
Isolation sucks but it's been great in terms of being home an hour before every game to nail tryscorer bets/dfs & social media for our site!

Revraiser wrote:



Yeah Milchy pointed that out a while ago to MattNZ one time, when MattNZ nailed it thinking this was a piece of cake lol

But where else can u choose the same type of betting option ? It's great fun.

Mine updated also last night, got 4 of 5 and just missed out on the Farnsworth/Niu one.

Yeah no doubt its not the best odds but like you say it's good fun, nothing quite like it. I only ever put a 5er on the Rapidfire 5 and sometimes the matchups are total coin flips so I won't enter, but sometimes some seem pretty clear

BCT05 wrote:

Yeah no doubt its not the best odds but like you say it's good fun, nothing quite like it. I only ever put a 5er on the Rapidfire 5 and sometimes the matchups are total coin flips so I won't enter, but sometimes some seem pretty clear

yep that sounds fair enough mate. love the ones where one seems like a clear win because of a shift to the bench or something

Dttragic2016 wrote:

Haha yep true. It is awesome fun but if no one else can think of a reason why it isn't shit value getting 20x for something that should be around a 1/32 chance then I might stop doing it. Max entered last night in the main game and high roller yesterday. It sounds scary but in most cases you end up around even (was about $100 up).
Isolation sucks but it's been great in terms of being home an hour before every game to nail tryscorer bets/dfs & social media for our site!

Crikey, what the max for the high roller ? 7 ? When u say in most cases, but what if u completely stiff team selection, u can still bomb right out yeah ?

BCT05 wrote:

Yeah no doubt its not the best odds but like you say it's good fun, nothing quite like it. I only ever put a 5er on the Rapidfire 5 and sometimes the matchups are total coin flips so I won't enter, but sometimes some seem pretty clear

If I catch them I have a crack. They are often up late. Will try tonight, as DT said the lockdown and work at home makes something easier to get to.

What happened with ur Draftstars thing DT ?