NRL Fantasy 2021 - Part 9 - ‘Twas the weekend before TLT

Hola's had a mortgage on the #19 jersey in my team all pre season and I'm only just finding out now he didn't even start in the cows trial, what's the go there? Dunn and Hess likely for TLT?

B/L wrote:

55-65

Didn't play less than 57 minutes last season as starting hooker (excluding injury game), all but that 57 minute game were between 60 and 80 minutes, which is likely his minute range this year.
Going to be different this season with Haas and Carrigan not playing 80 each week.

Draft 31:

J. Brailey
Hetherington Welch Watson
Fifita Riki
Cleary Brooks
Hopoate Roberts
Teddy Pap Laurie

Angus Lam Liddle Davey/Waddell
Averillo Croker/Faamusili Utoikamanu Niu

mattnz wrote:
I think 65 minutes is optimistic. Arrow had more than 65 minutes only once last season (it was before Peachey took on the bench lock role) and averaged 56 minutes. Mofo likely to get his 60ish minute role again this season to be the biggest minute middle.

I'm not saying he'll get 65 minutes. I said I'd be very happy if he did. 55-60 minutes is a reasonable estimate I think. You keep banging on about Peachey, but the truth is, that it's a whole new forward pack and we don't have any particularly solid idea of how the rotations will go. Points usually trumps minutes, but for round one with Tino, because his role is unclear I'll be more concerned about his minutes. 40-45 min just won't be enough unless he scores a try every week and it will require a prompt trade. 55-60 minutes and I'll be holding on to him no matter what he scores.

castlecrag sweethearts wrote:Team list Sunday...

Cleary has finally made it into my team as a captain. He is hard to ignore and means I have got lean with my supercows.

I like it! The only consideration would be Alvaro or Farmoresilly, instead of Croker or Averillo. Averillo is the one I am less confident with but the potential is there as is the DPP.

Turpin
Welch, Asofa-Solomona, Paulo
Fifita, Capewell
(C)leary, Brooks
Peachey, Bird
Laurie, Papenhuyzen, Isaako

Watson Lam Liddle Riki

Croker Averillo, Utoikamanu, Niu

Nice looking team but no Angus or Tedesco could hurt.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

Same as any gun really. You pick a guy like Cook, Crichton, Cleary you have to be willing to ride out some lower scores, although their floor is higher than most. Someone like DCE, Taumalolo, Harris, Matterson, Carrigan could pull out an 80 in round 1 and you have to hold your nerve

Mulvy wrote:

Agreed. I'll be looking at his role. 45 points in 65 minutes, I'll be very happy, the points will come. 50 points including a try in two 20 minute stints would have me very concerned.

My point exactly. Can’t throw the baby out with the bath water and go for the shiny new toy who scored or had injuries to their way that week as we know tino will only reach his average boost from try scoring weeks

White Lightning wrote:

Nice looking team but no Angus or Tedesco could hurt.

My 1-17 mids all have the potential to match it with Angus at a sizeable discount of up to 300k. That is my rationale. I think the double points for Captain requires a big outlay on one player as (C). I see Cleary as the most reliable of these options. Anything after that, there is a much lower rate of return. It is better then, to have supercows who will score well and rise in value. I think Crichton and Tedesco and priced at what they will score (or perhaps even slightly more). It is a risk but this is how I am playing it this year.

Is it a wise thing to go against the herd and choose NAS over Tino? Seems like NAS should do okay without Finucane.

The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:Is it a wise thing to go against the herd and choose NAS over Tino? Seems like NAS should do okay without Finucane.

Looking at stats, it would certainly appear so!

Any combo of Opacic, Roberts, Averillo (Bird slightly more) in your Centres nets 50-60 points for a ~$650k. All you need. I wouldn't be spending more time or funds in Centres that aren't playing 2RF

Rabbits21 wrote:Draft 31:

J. Brailey
Hetherington Welch Watson
Fifita Riki
Cleary Brooks
Hopoate Roberts
Teddy Pap Laurie

Angus Lam Liddle Davey/Waddell
Averillo Croker/Faamusili Utoikamanu Niu

Very similar to mine. Hetherington is my only concern, but he’s safe for a month at least.

castlecrag sweethearts wrote:

Looking at stats, it would certainly appear so!

Damn! Thanks.

I don't think you can look at previous rotations to get an estimate on Tino. He is quite frankly a much better player than Peachey, isn't carrying lingering injuries like Arrow and might be a marginally better player.

Titans have gone from having guys like Whitbread, Lisone, Fermor, Stone, Hipgrave and Jolliffe playing important parts of the rotation, to bringing in Fifita, Tino, Ese'ese while only losing Arrow as a genuine rep quality forward. We are also yet to see how McIntyre will be used and where he fits in the top 30 squad.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if we see a much more even split in the middle with Mofo, JWal, Tino, Ese'ese and Peachey all doing a fantastic job with no fantasy relevance

The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:Is it a wise thing to go against the herd and choose NAS over Tino? Seems like NAS should do okay without Finucane.

Not saying it is wise, but it is the choice I have made.
2020 NAS > 40 minutes 58
2020 Tino > 50 minutes 52

Tino would need to significantly outperform last season to be close to a keeper. NAS just needs 40+ minutes.

The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:Just out of curiosity, in Supercoach Cody Walker and Munster are supreme at 5/8, but they don’t seem all that important in Fantasy. Do people expect Cody (playing both sides) or Munster (no Cam Smith) to dramatically increase their average?

My gut says Munster is a great buy, but I only have room for one gun half and I can't rationalize Munster over Cleary... at this stage

If you follow the most popular, you'd end up with something like this

Brailey (21%)
Tino (36%) Watson (34%) Angus (27%)
Riki (33%)  Fifita (29%)
Cleary (34%) Munster (25%)
Bird (20%) Roberts (23%)
Papy (33%) Laurie (26%) Teddy (26%)

Liddle (29%) Moylan(19%) BMM (18%) Fusitu'a (17%)

Averillo (28%) S Walker (20%) B Trbo (17%) Niu (30%)

$190k to upgrade Walker & Turbo.

Had to leave out Latrell (24%), Lolo (19%), Cook (18%), B Smith (17%) to make cap compliant

Anybody on JT?

Seems everyone is hot on Crichton but factoring in origin they will be similar over the season

Both seem fairly well priced to me

Ponga Yeo the Mann wrote:Anybody on JT?

Seems everyone is hot on Crichton but factoring in origin they will be similar over the season

Both seem fairly well priced to me

Apparently Payton has said he plans to stop flogging Lolo ie less minutes, to preserve his career.

Adesanya lost, hard to go up a weight class

Jumping Marlin wrote:

Apparently Payton has said he plans to stop flogging Lolo ie less minutes, to preserve his career.

I know but I think 2 30 minutes stints is better for him. Last year in his 70 minute games he racked up the tackles but lost impact in his running

That and he has a few low minute games to bring his average down. I see both at mid 60s again