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    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 19 - I told you so

    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:49 pm

    Chewie wrote:

    To put things in perspective, the guy in 1st place has Deitz, Ogden, Averillo, Milford... not the best cows in the shed.
    He also has J Paulo who has scored a try in both games.

    One thing about the current top of the rankings is that after just 2 rounds, it can be easily skewed by 1 or 2 outlier performances.

    Similar to Paulo as mentioned by Chewie, anyone with Brett Morris in their team has a higher chance of being near the top because he's averaged 84 over the first 2 weeks.
    That doesn't mean people that have him are necessarily setup for long term success (and i think most people on this forum would be of the opinion that they aren't going to be at the top long term)

    A more difficult question is work out whether Reed Mahoney is a great fantasy buy that will sustain people at the top of the rankings, or whether he is a flash in the pan who is about to revert to his normal scoring.
    Aardvark
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    Post by Aardvark Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:49 pm

    multiple.scoregasms wrote:

    Sure but the only thing that has changed slightly since preseason is his run metres. We knew he was starting second row, we knew he had a soft start playing Manly and Tigers, we knew he scores tries pretty regularly as a starter. I see it ending poorly for everyone who wouldn't consider him in preseason, but now willing to pay an extra 80k because he scored a few tries. Screams of chasing scores

    Was going to say...yeah but he cost $80k less if you started with him....but you beat me too it.

    I agree that a couple of sterner tests will sort out where he is but the signs are that he has a slight uptick in most stats on admittedly a very small sample size against ordinary opposition.

    This was a gut pick more than anything else about a guy with a more stable position & more responsibility in the team (a very good team) entering his peak career years.


    Last edited by Aardvark on Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:50 pm; edited 1 time in total
    Donkeyyyyyy
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    Post by Donkeyyyyyy Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:50 pm

    Rabbits21 wrote:So how long is CHT out?

    Also not seeing many options to replace Davey with 33k spare only seeing Alvaro as an option currently!
    Hasn't been confirmed just an "extended period" which doesn't sound promising
    Oz Sport Mad
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    Post by Oz Sport Mad Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:50 pm

    my tv broke wrote:

    You'd be sitili to think he could score a try every week

    Yeah but is scoring two, par?
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:51 pm

    mattnz wrote:
    I heard he had a Goose Step to die for.

    I mean, that's pretty funny. Badum1
    WT Winfield
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    Post by WT Winfield Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:52 pm

    NRL.com bringing up the dog act from Arrow on Teddy from last year's origin to hype this week's clash Laughing

    Sucked me in anyway. Eyes will be on JWH for me. Couple of meatheads going at it would be entertaining, but Bennett will probably wait until JWH is subbed before bringing Arrow into the game.
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    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:53 pm

    Mulvy wrote:

    I mean, that's pretty funny. Badum1
    We do love our puns here
    Tookey
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    Post by Tookey Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:53 pm

    Rabbits21 wrote:So how long is CHT out?

    Also not seeing many options to replace Davey with 33k spare only seeing Alvaro as an option currently!

    Nothing confirmed but NRL physio saying atleast 4-6 weeks for an injury like his.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:53 pm

    multiple.scoregasms wrote:

    Sure but the only thing that has changed slightly since preseason is his run metres. We knew he was starting second row, we knew he had a soft start playing Manly and Tigers, we knew he scores tries pretty regularly as a starter. I see it ending poorly for everyone who wouldn't consider him in preseason, but now willing to pay an extra 80k because he scored a few tries. Screams of chasing scores

    One of the issues in looking at him pre-season was trying to work out which of his low scores last year were due to low base, and which were due to him moving centre mid game. It all became a bit hard so I end ed up elsewhere (Jacob Host - what a smart move that was!)

    After 2 weeks I am pretty sure he is good value based on his starting price. In games without tries he will still score fairly well.
    Whether that translates to being value at his current price (and using a trade to get him) is another question

    I think at this point I'd rather spring the extra cash for Josh Jackson.
    mrbrownstone
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    Post by mrbrownstone Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:55 pm

    Sims is an interesting option. His lowest career avg in the second row was 38 last year, every other year 40+, will bottom out below 400k, and plays the first bye. Definitely one for the watchlist.
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:57 pm

    Milchcow wrote:

    One thing about the current top of the rankings is that after just 2 rounds, it can be easily skewed by 1 or 2 outlier performances.

    Similar to Paulo as mentioned by Chewie, anyone with Brett Morris in their team has a higher chance of being near the top because he's averaged 84 over the first 2 weeks.
    That doesn't mean people that have him are necessarily setup for long term success (and i think most people on this forum would be of the opinion that they aren't going to be at the top long term)

    A more difficult question is work out whether Reed Mahoney is a great fantasy buy that will sustain people at the top of the rankings, or whether he is a flash in the pan who is about to revert to his normal scoring.

    flash in the pan:
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    Chris nz

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    Post by Chris nz Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:57 pm

    Should I give brimson the flick ? Very torn believe his scoring will come right but it's just when and how low will the ship sink first
    mrbrownstone
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    Post by mrbrownstone Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:58 pm

    Quietly happy with Stefano. First forward on, played nearly half the game at 1PPM, looks good.

    Wishing I'd just kept Lodge and played him last week in retrospect.
    Aardvark
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    Post by Aardvark Mon Mar 22, 2021 4:59 pm

    Milchcow wrote:

    One of the issues in looking at him pre-season was trying  to work out which of his low scores last year were due to low base, and which were due to him moving centre mid game. It all became a bit hard so I end ed up elsewhere (Jacob Host - what a smart move that was!)

    After 2 weeks I am pretty sure he is good value based on his starting price. In games without tries he will still score fairly well.
    Whether that translates to being value at his current price (and using a trade to get him) is another question

    I think at this point I'd rather spring the extra cash for Josh Jackson.

    Yeah, i'm not sure I would have started with him if he was $560k rather than $480k and I am not sure of the value in trading him in now (unless you think he is going to be there for the long haul). The next few weeks will see where he is at.
    Donkeyyyyyy
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    Post by Donkeyyyyyy Mon Mar 22, 2021 5:00 pm

    Chris nz wrote:Should I give brimson the flick ? Very torn believe his scoring will come right but it's just when and how low will the ship sink first
    if you don't have Ted and Laurie then yes, if you do then you might be able to hold
    Aardvark Ratnick
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    Post by Aardvark Ratnick Mon Mar 22, 2021 5:00 pm

    mattnz wrote:
    We do love our puns here
    Himmler was similar but Goering was boring and had no step at all.
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Mon Mar 22, 2021 5:01 pm

    my tv broke wrote:

    #bringbackVK

    where the fuck is he?

    He's in my league, so he is playing...
    his team is similar to most here (not as POD rich at Mattnz)


    also... where is Zora???


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    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Mon Mar 22, 2021 5:03 pm

    Donkeyyyyyy wrote:
    if you don't have Ted and Laurie then yes, if you do then you might be able to hold
    If Laurie is outside your 17 by starting with 3 gun WFBs, flick him and play Laurie.
    Rapture_NRL
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    Post by Rapture_NRL Mon Mar 22, 2021 5:04 pm

    Milchcow wrote:

    One of the issues in looking at him pre-season was trying  to work out which of his low scores last year were due to low base, and which were due to him moving centre mid game. It all became a bit hard so I end ed up elsewhere (Jacob Host - what a smart move that was!)

    After 2 weeks I am pretty sure he is good value based on his starting price. In games without tries he will still score fairly well.
    Whether that translates to being value at his current price (and using a trade to get him) is another question

    I think at this point I'd rather spring the extra cash for Josh Jackson.

    What about when Bulldogs are back at full strength?
    Revraiser
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    Post by Revraiser Mon Mar 22, 2021 5:08 pm

    mattnz wrote:
    I heard he had a Goose Step to die for.

    I didn't know u had it in u, that's glorious

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