2016 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 5

Aubusson averaged 47 in 10 2015 games at 2RF. If he does that for five games at the start of the season what does his price go to?

Need someone to talk me out of this.

rhinoceroo wrote:Aubusson averaged 47 in 10 2015 games at 2RF. If he does that for five games at the start of the season what does his price go to?

Need someone to talk me out of this.

They have an injury in the centres and he's shifted there and gets you a solid 14 points.

Then he's named in the second row the next week but last name the centre pulls out and he's shifted there again. This week getting you 22.

He's now dropped money and you only have yourself to blame.

rhinoceroo wrote:Aubusson averaged 47 in 10 2015 games at 2RF. If he does that for five games at the start of the season what does his price go to?

Need someone to talk me out of this.

I'm trying to work him into my centres. Not having much joy though cause I have to downgrade my forwards who I like. But I will persevere. I think he's a great option if he's named in the 2nd row & he'll average 45-50 no worries & play 80.

Honeysett wrote:

They have an injury in the centres and he's shifted there and gets you a solid 14 points.

Then he's named in the second row the next week but last name the centre pulls out and he's shifted there again. This week getting you 22.

He's now dropped money and you only have yourself to blame.

Boo

Honeysett wrote:

They have an injury in the centres and he's shifted there and gets you a solid 14 points.

Then he's named in the second row the next week but last name the centre pulls out and he's shifted there again. This week getting you 22.

He's now dropped money and you only have yourself to blame.

Yeah but since Brendan Elliot did a decent job in first grade at the back end of last year he'll be the first person to fill in at centre if the Roosters need it and with no Cordner for a few months, I can hazard a guess they'll want to keep someone as experienced as Aubo in the back-row. I'm going to stick with him for now, a little risk makes things interesting anyway.

Johnny B Goode wrote:
 

Yeah but since Brendan Elliot did a decent job in first grade at the back end of last year he'll be the first person to fill in at centre if the Roosters need it and with no Cordner for a few months, I can hazard a guess they'll want to keep someone as experienced as Aubo in the back-row. I'm going to stick with him for now, a little risk makes things interesting anyway.

Tbh, I'm guessing a lot of people are a bit like myself. After being burnt by Aubo too many times, we have to discredit him as an option every chance we get, otherwise we might become tempted again... . If you aren't in this boat then MAYBE you actually have a clearer, less biased opinion. As you said, Gotta risk it for the biscuit. If this makes sense to you or your gut is telling you something, might as well go with it.

Archer wrote:

Tbh, I'm guessing a lot of people are a bit like myself. After being burnt by Aubo too many times, we have to discredit him as an option every chance we get, otherwise we might become tempted again... . If you aren't in this boat then MAYBE you actually have a clearer, less biased opinion. As you said, Gotta risk it for the biscuit. If this makes sense to you or your gut is telling you something, might as well go with it.

main issue with Aubbo is people get him trying to save $$. What he can score playing second row is the same as some high end second rowers like Friz/W. Graham/Cooper etc but he is normally $100k less in price but when he strings those 2 50's together then gets moved for 30's the rest of the way he leaves you feeling you should of just taken the safer option of the guys named above

Welshy wrote:
main issue with Aubbo is people get him trying to save $$. What he can score playing second row is the same as some high end second rowers like Friz/W. Graham/Cooper etc but he is normally $100k less in price but when he strings those 2 50's together then gets moved for 30's the rest of the way he leaves you feeling you should of just taken the safer option of the guys named above

That's what makes it a risk though. One you or I wont take because our gut/experience tells us those 20's and 30's are just around the corner but someone else from a fresh perspective might see why this year will be different.
Not all that different to me currently considering having Hurrell and Leilua as my centre pairing .

Mitchell AUbusson as a starting 2nd rower

2013 - avg 41 from 15 games
2014 - avg 53 from 4 games (included 2 tries)
2015 - avg 47 from 8 games

Priced at an average of 38

If he starts in the 2nd row, its not scores that are in question, its job security.

if Cordner is out long term, and there is noone on the bench or waiting in the wings that might grab it from him (Taukeiaho I am loooking at you) then he looks very tempting.

Ideally Tauk gets Cordner's spot and we can be safer picking him

As an aside Welshy, your reasoning in a recent post has made me finally punt Wade Graham and see what my team looks like with Ah Mau and SST. I keep bouncing between being really happy about it to doubting myself again >.< oh dear. Could you try to be a little less convincing with your reasoning in future mate, I'm a fragile beast at this stage!

Archer wrote:

That's what makes it a risk though. One you or I wont take because our gut/experience tells us those 20's and 30's are just around the corner but someone else from a fresh perspective might see why this year will be different.
Not all that different to me currently considering having Hurrell and Leilua as my centre pairing .

I think BJ might be worth the risk mate Raiders should be dangerous in attack so should get plenty of opportunities, i have him under consideration and might switch Gutherson to WFB and bring BJ in for Nightingale

There is no fresh perspective on Aubbs, he does exactly what people say he does, i tried pushing him last year after being burned in the past and it happened again lol

Probably answering my own question here but is it wrong to not worry about Rd 12 byes? Last year I planned hard to get good bye cover to probably the detriment of my team. Most of players I'm keen on don't play 12 so should I write it off slightly?

Archer wrote:As an aside Welshy, your reasoning in a recent post has made me finally punt Wade Graham and see what my team looks like with Ah Mau and SST. I keep bouncing between being really happy about it to doubting myself again >.< oh dear. Could you try to be a little less convincing with your reasoning in future mate, I'm a fragile beast at this stage!

Oh god, don't blame me when it doesn't hit lol? What advice was that mate because i really like Wade Graham and don't think i have gave a reason to dump him?

Every year..

Every year Aubusson looks like a good pick, every year we say "Well what if?". Every god damn year we believe..



It has to stop, there must come a time when we say "No! No more Aubusson!" Now if you ask any person who has played NRL Fantasy if they have been burnt by Aubusson, they would say yes. Because any real player of Fantasy has always thought the reward is greater than the risk. Well when it comes to Aubusson, the risk is too great. Because you will always say. "Just one more game, he can't do that badly again right?" WRONG! He is a trap, the kind that you see at the bar and think. "Yeah I know it is a trap, but I am drunk I could do with a BJ I guess. I mean at least it isn't a dog." and then you get back to their apartment and they fuck you over. Then you cry to yourself and wonder where it all went wrong. Well you only have yourself to blame.

Fuck Aubusson.

Random wrote:Every year..

Every year Aubusson looks like a good pick, every year we say "Well what if?". Every god damn year we believe..



It has to stop, there must come a time when we say "No! No more Aubusson!" Now if you ask any person who has played NRL Fantasy if they have been burnt by Aubusson, they would say yes. Because any real player of Fantasy has always thought the reward is greater than the risk. Well when it comes to Aubusson, the risk is too great. Because you will always say. "Just one more game, he can't do that badly again right?" WRONG! He is a trap, the kind that you see at the bar and think. "Yeah I know it is a trap, but I am drunk I could do with a BJ I guess. I mean at least it isn't a dog." and then you get back to their apartment and they fuck you over. Then you cry to yourself and wonder where it all went wrong. Well you only have yourself to blame.

Fuck Aubusson.

HAH! This got me some funny looks in the office, well played!

Welshy wrote:

Oh god, don't blame me when it doesn't hit lol? What advice was that mate because i really like Wade Graham and don't think i have gave a reason to dump him?

Haha nah wasn't anything you said about Wade, more what you said about the other two. I already had Parker and my 2nd row felt really shallow so I was trying to figure out where to get some cash from when I read you thoughts on SST and LAM. I may still bring Wade back in, we shall see. If Barba gets named at FB I'll be all over that, purely because I want to free up some cash and put it back in my forwards!

Milchcow wrote:
Mitchell AUbusson as a starting 2nd rower

2013 - avg 41 from 15 games
2014 - avg 53 from 4 games (included 2 tries)
2015 - avg 47 from 8 games

Priced at an average of 38

If he starts in the 2nd row, its not scores that are in question, its job security.

if Cordner is out long term, and there is noone on the bench or waiting in the wings that might grab it from him (Taukeiaho I am loooking at you) then he looks very tempting.

Ideally Tauk gets Cordner's spot and we can be safer picking him

There in lies the trap an average of 47 from 8 games, looks fantastic! but I will almost put my house on it that it was't 8 consecutive games in the second row (where he scores all his points) would bet it likely wasn't any more than 3 in a row...it will be two games here...50 points twice! 6 games in the CTR 28 points, another game in the second row 45 points, back to the interchange 35 points, 30 points another 2 game stint in the row 45,45 just too much risk for me

Random wrote:Every year..

Every year Aubusson looks like a good pick, every year we say "Well what if?". Every god damn year we believe..



It has to stop, there must come a time when we say "No! No more Aubusson!" Now if you ask any person who has played NRL Fantasy if they have been burnt by Aubusson, they would say yes. Because any real player of Fantasy has always thought the reward is greater than the risk. Well when it comes to Aubusson, the risk is too great. Because you will always say. "Just one more game, he can't do that badly again right?" WRONG! He is a trap, the kind that you see at the bar and think. "Yeah I know it is a trap, but I am drunk I could do with a BJ I guess. I mean at least it isn't a dog." and then you get back to their apartment and they fuck you over. Then you cry to yourself and wonder where it all went wrong. Well you only have yourself to blame.

Fuck Aubusson.

Never have truer words been spoken! Last year the same shit was being spouted about how Aubusson was going to have a good year and finally live up to "scoring potential". Nek minnit...SST has a cracker year and old Mitch is as bad as always. He could start the season with 3 consecutive 70s and I would still steer clear

Welshy wrote:

There in lies the trap an average of 47 from 8 games, looks fantastic! but I will almost put my house on it that it was't 8 consecutive games in the second row (where he scores all his points) would bet it likely wasn't any more than 3 in a row...it will be two games here...50 points twice! 6 games in the CTR 28 points, another game in the second row 45 points, back to the interchange 35 points, 30 points another 2 game stint in the row 45,45 just too much risk for me

Actually last year he played 9 games at 2nd row (average 46, not 47) I missed one in my initial analysis

But there was 2 in a row rounds 6 and 7.
Then next played rounds 14-21 inclusive (minus the round 17 bye) and averaged 43 in that run.

That sort of run is what you are hooping for if he is replacing Cordner and Cordner is out long term.

Milchcow wrote:

Actually last year he played 9 games at 2nd row (average 46, not 47) I missed one in my initial analysis

But there was 2 in a row rounds 6 and 7.
Then next played rounds 14-21 inclusive (minus the round 17 bye) and averaged 43 in that run.

That sort of run is what you are hooping for if he is replacing Cordner and Cordner is out long term.

Trousers! Lucky i didn't bet my house on that then

guess the question is, is that 43 avg, over 7 consecutive games, (6 points over where he is priced) worth the Aubbs risk?