NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 53 - The round's over. The magic lives on.

Is Leniu to Hynes worth it to clear out a red dot?

I'd like to save a trade, but the way injuries and suspensions are going, I worry that intentionally carrying Roberts, Leniu, Stefano, and Pap after trading Simpkin to Starling is asking for trouble.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:After some deliberation I think I’ve decided on Olam as my CTR trade in, and hoping he can continue to produce the goods. Few more tries would be nice. Means I can hold Pappy

Kelly and Bird were close second and third. Kelly could still sneak in if I want to save a bit of cash

Trades are Hampton/Roberts to Teddy/Olam or Kelly

Honestly, you should buy Manu, then thank me later.

Seriously;
- He's under-valued.
- He doesn't need tries to average 40.
- Can't play Origin and seldom misses a game.
- Potential for a Fullback boost when Teddy is on Origin duty or being rested.
- Floor looks like it's gradually improved over the years, and capable of having a huge game.

At the risk of angering the Fantasy Gods, it also locks up a CTR spot so you don't need to think about it again.

Mulvy wrote:
I have the same keepers except Pangai for Ipap. I have the same targets.  And the same potential keepers if I bring in Starling which I'm still considering. 

Question: Do you intend to keep all five origin players over Origin? I think MS has said he'll likely sell Crichton and Turbo.  I've been playing around with both options.

What to do with origin players is going to be really interesting this year imo. With a rank of 13k, I'm going to go all in on trading guys out to maximise points over rounds 13 to 18.

With the way the game has become this season, with players not playing the week after most HIAs and more ball in play time, do we think coaches are less likely to play their stars 2 or 3 days after an origin?

mrbrownstone wrote:Is Leniu to Hynes worth it to clear out a red dot?

I'd like to save a trade, but the way injuries and suspensions are going, I worry that intentionally carrying Roberts, Leniu, Stefano, and Pap after trading Simpkin to Starling is asking for trouble.

Is there anyone in Souths, Eels or Manly you could look at instead of Hynes?
Leniu sitting at #18 could (unlikely but possible) sneak into the 17 on game day - how would you feel if you made the trade and this happened?
Worth thinking about at least.

Very left-field one, but any interest in BMM now that he's starting? Last 3 scores 51, 51, 54 - all with tries, LBs, and huge TBs.

Wouldn't go there personally, but it's a potential big high-risk high-reward play with Tigers, Cows, Knights 3 of the next 4 there's potential for those attacking stats to continue.

mrbrownstone wrote:Very left-field one, but any interest in BMM now that he's starting? Last 3 scores 51, 51, 54 - all with tries, LBs, and huge TBs.

Wouldn't go there personally, but it's a potential big high-risk high-reward play with Tigers, Cows, Knights 3 of the next 4 there's potential for those attacking stats to continue.

Easy miss for me. Doesn't have a base so needs bulk attacking stats to hit 50s. Not a keeper, not a cow

easytiger wrote:

Honestly, you should buy Manu, then thank me later.

Seriously;
- He's under-valued.
- He doesn't need tries to average 40.
- Can't play Origin and seldom misses a game.
- Potential for a Fullback boost when Teddy is on Origin duty or being rested.
- Floor looks like it's gradually improved over the years, and capable of having a huge game.

At the risk of angering the Fantasy Gods, it also locks up a CTR spot so you don't need to think about it again.

Cheers mate. Definitely an option still.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

Easy miss for me. Doesn't have a base so needs bulk attacking stats to hit 50s. Not a keeper, not a cow

Hard to disagree. If he stays cheapish might come into consideration as a high ceiling 18th/19th man loop option with his DPP if you're running out of money.

Reimis Smith is a great example of patience needed in those 20,21 spots

Historical 20-25 guy joining one of the better attacking teams in the comp

Started at 300k and scored 8 points in round 1 which caused most to jump ship

Since then he has averaged 40 points and made over 200k with only 1 score under 20. "Only" 6 tries in that time as well

Hoping for 1 more decent score before round 13 so he can hold current price

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

I'm willing to sell anyone except for the uber guns that have you hiding behind the couch. Cleary, Teddy and Haas the only must holds for mine

EDIT: This is because I believe their are valid alternatives for the run home. You can get away with a back 3 from Teddy, Papy, Ponga, Latrell, RTS, Turbo + possibly To'o. For Edge you have Tohu, Crichton, Fifita, Matterson, Papali'i, Frizell, TPJ

We agree on Cleary, Haas, Teddy. All three are scary to watch as non-owners, Cleary is the standout captain choice whenever he is playing and no way I'm selling Teddy at bottom dollar.

I think it is less clear cut with Angus and Turbo. I had drafted plans to sell them both but was inspired by Soylent to work out a plan that involves keeping them.

Angus - You say there are valid alternatives for the run home. Indeed there is, Angus covers both mid and edge and I already have Matterson and TPJ, Frizell likely origin so it's sideways, Fifita I'll get after origin. Tohu I'll get by other means in rd14 probably for Watson. The thing is, for Mid and edge you need at least 6-7 of them. Now Angus is averaging 61. If his replacement plays an extra game he needs to average 56 just to make the trade sideways, would need to average 60+ and play an extra game to make it worthwhile. There's not many options that meet that criteria. Harris who I can get in rd 14 without selling Angus (maybe Lolo too) or Ipap who I'm convinced will eventually settle down to a mid 50's avg.

Turbo - Averaging 68. I'm prepared to say this will probably regress to say, 58 moving forward. Pappy I'll get hopefully when he bottoms out after origin. Ponga and Latrell both likely origin really makes a Turbo trade rather sideways. RTS looks a no go at the moment. If Turbo's replacement plays an extra game they would need to avg 53 to make the trade sideways, high 50's and no origin to make it worthwhile.

If the goal is maximum total points I'm not sure trading out Angus and Turbo to guys that play an extra game actually achieves that goal. Unless you trade out an origin gun to a rd13 gun and then trade them to a rd17 gun, two trades might net you 120 points. Most won't be in a position to do that too many times. The only way it really adds up for me is if the origin guns get rested over the origin period. Possible for Angus. I think unlikely for Turbo because playing centre isn't as taxing and his team needs him too much.

Not sure if any of this make sense, I'm home sick, head all congested

Mulvy wrote:

We agree on Cleary, Haas, Teddy. All three are scary to watch as non-owners, Cleary is the standout captain choice whenever he is playing and no way I'm selling Teddy at bottom dollar.

I think it is less clear cut with Angus and Turbo. I had drafted plans to sell them both but was inspired by Soylent to work out a plan that involves keeping them.

Angus - You say there are valid alternatives for the run home. Indeed there is, Angus covers both mid and edge and I already have Matterson and TPJ, Frizell likely origin so it's sideways, Fifita I'll get after origin. Tohu I'll get by other means in rd14 probably for Watson. The thing is, for Mid and edge you need at least 6-7 of them. Now Angus is averaging 61. If his replacement plays an extra game he needs to average 56 just to make the trade sideways, would need to average 60+ and play an extra game to make it worthwhile. There's not many options that meet that criteria. Harris who I can get in rd 14 without selling Angus (maybe Lolo too) or Ipap who I'm convinced will eventually settle down to a mid 50's avg.

Turbo - Averaging 68. I'm prepared to say this will probably regress to say, 58 moving forward. Pappy I'll get hopefully when he bottoms out after origin. Ponga and Latrell both likely origin really makes a Turbo trade rather sideways. RTS looks a no go at the moment. If Turbo's replacement plays an extra game they would need to avg 53 to make the trade sideways, high 50's and no origin to make it worthwhile.

If the goal is maximum total points I'm not sure trading out Angus and Turbo to guys that play an extra game actually achieves that goal. Unless you trade out an origin gun to a rd13 gun and then trade them to a rd17 gun, two trades might net you 120 points. Most won't be in a position to do that too many times. The only way it really adds up for me is if the origin guns get rested over the origin period. Possible for Angus. I think unlikely for Turbo because playing centre isn't as taxing and his team needs him too much.

Not sure if any of this make sense, I'm home sick, head all congested

Crichton is the only one im considering selling. He has shown he has a few lower scores in him and when Cordner comes back it might be a chance for the roosters to give him a rest.
Im holding Fifita because he only needs a couple of big plays to get a big score

Mulvy wrote:

We agree on Cleary, Haas, Teddy. All three are scary to watch as non-owners, Cleary is the standout captain choice whenever he is playing and no way I'm selling Teddy at bottom dollar.

I think it is less clear cut with Angus and Turbo. I had drafted plans to sell them both but was inspired by Soylent to work out a plan that involves keeping them.

Angus - You say there are valid alternatives for the run home. Indeed there is, Angus covers both mid and edge and I already have Matterson and TPJ, Frizell likely origin so it's sideways, Fifita I'll get after origin. Tohu I'll get by other means in rd14 probably for Watson. The thing is, for Mid and edge you need at least 6-7 of them. Now Angus is averaging 61. If his replacement plays an extra game he needs to average 56 just to make the trade sideways, would need to average 60+ and play an extra game to make it worthwhile. There's not many options that meet that criteria. Harris who I can get in rd 14 without selling Angus (maybe Lolo too) or Ipap who I'm convinced will eventually settle down to a mid 50's avg.

Turbo - Averaging 68. I'm prepared to say this will probably regress to say, 58 moving forward. Pappy I'll get hopefully when he bottoms out after origin. Ponga and Latrell both likely origin really makes a Turbo trade rather sideways. RTS looks a no go at the moment. If Turbo's replacement plays an extra game they would need to avg 53 to make the trade sideways, high 50's and no origin to make it worthwhile.

If the goal is maximum total points I'm not sure trading out Angus and Turbo to guys that play an extra game actually achieves that goal. Unless you trade out an origin gun to a rd13 gun and then trade them to a rd17 gun, two trades might net you 120 points. Most won't be in a position to do that too many times. The only way it really adds up for me is if the origin guns get rested over the origin period. Possible for Angus. I think unlikely for Turbo because playing centre isn't as taxing and his team needs him too much.

Not sure if any of this make sense, I'm home sick, head all congested

I think the main point you have touched on is the ability to go from origin gun>round 13 gun>round 17. If you have a few trades in the bank to do that, it's much easier to get rid of Crichton/Turbo. If you are short on trades and can pick either round 13 or 17 gun the numbers lean towards holding

Mulvy wrote:

We agree on Cleary, Haas, Teddy. All three are scary to watch as non-owners, Cleary is the standout captain choice whenever he is playing and no way I'm selling Teddy at bottom dollar.

I think it is less clear cut with Angus and Turbo. I had drafted plans to sell them both but was inspired by Soylent to work out a plan that involves keeping them.

Angus - You say there are valid alternatives for the run home. Indeed there is, Angus covers both mid and edge and I already have Matterson and TPJ, Frizell likely origin so it's sideways, Fifita I'll get after origin. Tohu I'll get by other means in rd14 probably for Watson. The thing is, for Mid and edge you need at least 6-7 of them. Now Angus is averaging 61. If his replacement plays an extra game he needs to average 56 just to make the trade sideways, would need to average 60+ and play an extra game to make it worthwhile. There's not many options that meet that criteria. Harris who I can get in rd 14 without selling Angus (maybe Lolo too) or Ipap who I'm convinced will eventually settle down to a mid 50's avg.

Turbo - Averaging 68. I'm prepared to say this will probably regress to say, 58 moving forward. Pappy I'll get hopefully when he bottoms out after origin. Ponga and Latrell both likely origin really makes a Turbo trade rather sideways. RTS looks a no go at the moment. If Turbo's replacement plays an extra game they would need to avg 53 to make the trade sideways, high 50's and no origin to make it worthwhile.

If the goal is maximum total points I'm not sure trading out Angus and Turbo to guys that play an extra game actually achieves that goal. Unless you trade out an origin gun to a rd13 gun and then trade them to a rd17 gun, two trades might net you 120 points. Most won't be in a position to do that too many times. The only way it really adds up for me is if the origin guns get rested over the origin period. Possible for Angus. I think unlikely for Turbo because playing centre isn't as taxing and his team needs him too much.

Not sure if any of this make sense, I'm home sick, head all congested

God your posts are quality. You've made some great points here.

toast wrote:

Ah true, you've caught me. I don't even have eyes!

Mr Toast was one of my kids' favourite toys growing up:

Spoiler:

Mulvy wrote:
I have the same keepers except Pangai for Ipap. I have the same targets.  And the same potential keepers if I bring in Starling which I'm still considering. 

Question: Do you intend to keep all five origin players over Origin? I think MS has said he'll likely sell Crichton and Turbo.  I've been playing around with both options.

Yeah - I'm hoping to keep all 5 origin players. As it stands on current prices I need to find ~$400k to be able to bring in my targeted players. That my reduce if Pappy and/or Fifita drop in value before I bring them in, or if Schuster/Laurie/Riki collectively gain value. After 2 trades this week I have 20 remaining - so I'm looking at a number of short-term trades for the buy rounds where (hopefully) I can pick up a decent score from a player with an increased role, and a bit of a cash bump. Ideally I'd be looking to max trade round 17 where 3 are cheap cash-outs named to play and 1 is Tohu.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

I think the main point you have touched on is the ability to go from origin gun>round 13 gun>round 17. If you have a few trades in the bank to do that, it's much easier to get rid of Crichton/Turbo. If you are short on trades and can pick either round 13 or 17 gun the numbers lean towards holding

Yeah I mean I probably have just enough trades to it, but if I was going origin gun > rd13 gun > rd17 gun, why wouldn't I do peaked cash cow > rd13 gun > rd 17 gun. In other words instead of selling Angus and Turbo, sell Walker and Schuster? I guess it's two less games all up but as I suggested earlier, the higher scoring rate of Angus and Turbo likely makes up for that.

Honey Badger wrote:

Crichton is the only one im considering selling. He has shown he has a few lower scores in him and when Cordner comes back it might be a chance for the roosters to give him a rest.
Im holding Fifita because he only needs a couple of big plays to get a big score

Good point re: Cordner, I hadn't really considered that. Fair enough on Fifita but I've already sold him.

ytsb wrote:

God your posts are quality. You've made some great points here.

Learnt from all the smart people on here, in particular the guy I'm currently debating.

SoylentGreen wrote:

Mr Toast was one of my kids' favourite toys growing up:

Spoiler:

Ooh, potential for a new avatar pic

Honey Badger wrote:

Crichton is the only one im considering selling. He has shown he has a few lower scores in him and when Cordner comes back it might be a chance for the roosters to give him a rest.
Im holding Fifita because he only needs a couple of big plays to get a big score

Can't see Cordner coming back TBH. Will likely hold the grand angus - as Mulvy said there just aren't that many high scoring edges/mids around to make the trades worthwhile.