NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 67 - Stop the rank crying and get on with it!

robelgordo wrote:

Strong team if you can loop Watto/Fog, I don’t think you need to do more

There’s still 6 trades before R17 and some players will get injured or whatever to force some moves and make the decisions for you.

8 left you can then sideways back to some non-R17 players after and still have some spare trades.

I’m envious

Have spots I could definitely upgrade but still got some blokes making cash and some scoring well enough.

It's not that great haha

Brailey
iPap Angus Harris
CHN Matterson
Cleary Moses
Bird Crichton
Teddy Turbo Hynes

AMC9 Jones Walsh Schuster
Watson Fogarty Verrills Ramsey

Trades in hand and a big bank mean over the next couple rounds I can be aggressive. I don't really make plans, I just take it week by week. I have never finished in the top 500 so probably means I am doing it wrong

ynot wrote:More analytics:

This looks at the differences in fantasy points by position in wins vs losses. I was interested in what positions are effected the most by team success.

The red line shows the density (% of total) of a given score for a loss, blue is in a win.

Few takeaways, most obvious:
- Backs are most effected by the match result, particularly Fullbacks, Wingers and Centres, probably in that order.
- Forwards it doesn't matter too much, particularly Locks, but Props/Edges do have more of a chance of going big in a win.
- Hookers score more consistently in losses, I'm guessing due to tackles

Thanks ynot.

Some care needed with causation vs correlation.

Eg, the results could just reflect that teams with better players win more and the better players also score more fantasy stats?

Probably the takeaway is get backs in the winningest teams. (Eg picking Reimus vs picking Roberts)

What's the love for SJ?

His last two games seem like outliers.

His 57 included 6 goals (12 points) in a massive Sharks win against the Titans where every Sharks player were playing out of their skin.

Then last weeks 71 included a try, a field goal and 600+ kick metres (which he has only done 2 other times in his career).

Sharks last two games they have romped the Titans and just beat a very depleted Panthers team. They don't really ooze finals footy when I watch them. Just see SJ being more a 45-50 point score moving forward rather than a 55+ like I think most are expecting. Happy to be proven wrong though

Rabbits21 wrote:I have 12 trades left 10k spare and I think I’ll look at 3 trades this week possibly 4 not sure yet.

Team before trades is:

Brailey
Haas TPJ Watson
Angus CHN
Cleary Moses
Bird Manu
Teddy Walsh Tommy T

Macca Hynes Peachey Schuster
S. Crichton Laurie A.Kelly Suaali


I think I’ll get Verrills and Tohu in for starters. Anyone got any advice for my team please?

filthridden wrote:

Hi Rabs,
This is not the first time I've seen you increase the font size in one of your posts.
I'm not sure why you do this but it gives the impression that you think your posts are more important than others.

If you've done it by accident, I'm happy to change the font back to normal size for you.

Gees you're not wrong mate, bloody ridiculous!

StormTrooper96 wrote:What's the love for SJ?

His last two games seem like outliers.

His 57 included 6 goals (12 points) in a massive Sharks win against the Titans where every Sharks player were playing out of their skin.

Then last weeks 71 included a try, a field goal and 600+ kick metres (which he has only done 2 other times in his career).

Sharks last two games they have romped the Titans and just beat a very depleted Panthers team. They don't really ooze finals footy when I watch them. Just see SJ being more a 45-50 point score moving forward rather than a 55+ like I think most are expecting. Happy to be proven wrong though

Their draw is really good from now to the end, they only have two more hard matchups left (Raiders in round 18, Manly in round 20), and the rest is piss-easy. They do have the Storm in round 25 but odds are it'll be against our B-team so they could very well win that one too

StormTrooper96 wrote:What's the love for SJ?

His last two games seem like outliers.

His 57 included 6 goals (12 points) in a massive Sharks win against the Titans where every Sharks player were playing out of their skin.

Then last weeks 71 included a try, a field goal and 600+ kick metres (which he has only done 2 other times in his career).

Sharks last two games they have romped the Titans and just beat a very depleted Panthers team. They don't really ooze finals footy when I watch them. Just see SJ being more a 45-50 point score moving forward rather than a 55+ like I think most are expecting. Happy to be proven wrong though

He's now getting 400+ kms and goal kicking and primary playmaker now that Townsend's on the outer and playing next to Moylan and plays rd17. Basically the same reason you might bring in Averillo (and same reason I brought in Moses and Fogarty for the previous bye) I'm considering both.

StormTrooper96 wrote:What's the love for SJ?

His last two games seem like outliers.

His 57 included 6 goals (12 points) in a massive Sharks win against the Titans where every Sharks player were playing out of their skin.

Then last weeks 71 included a try, a field goal and 600+ kick metres (which he has only done 2 other times in his career).

Sharks last two games they have romped the Titans and just beat a very depleted Panthers team. They don't really ooze finals footy when I watch them. Just see SJ being more a 45-50 point score moving forward rather than a 55+ like I think most are expecting. Happy to be proven wrong though

The same reason I got Townsend at the start of the season, Moylan literally never kicks the ball

Shady2K wrote:What are people expecting out of Simonsson? Now that he’s fullback just a safe 30-40 scorer backup that plays R17?

Laurie to Simmo and pocketing 160k seems sound? With only 9 trades though idk if it’s worth it for me personally

This is a trade I’m considering. Thinking out loud:
> prior to last week I’d decided that perhaps Laurie may stay all year as EMG. He’s averaging 43, so a nice back up, and I save a trade.
> then he gets an injury affected score and I’m suddenly thinking of selling him. WTF!
> Laurie is priced at about 42 (using MN of 12.3)
> Simmo is priced at about 29.
> If he averages 35 going forward I lose out by around 8ppm on Laurie for any week I’d have to use him, and I burn a trade.
> But I get 35 in Rd 17 which covers 4 rounds of playing him other weeks (god forbid)
> I already have Hoppa as my EMG back up for WFB/Centre. So actually don’t really need another.
> But boy that $160k will come in handy. I can reinvest it in my starting 17 and reap benefits immediately. $160k should buy me about 13ppg.
> how pissed off would I be if Simmo does an Avo or ipap?
> my team value is crap and I need some more cash generation.

Hmm, I think I’ve talked myself into selling Laurie. Just have to see if Simmo the best pick.

Rabbits21 wrote:
What don’t you like about Olak’auatu?

I’d you look past last week his scores are dog shite. Unless we’re just trading in players who scored 2 tries last week then have at it.

Oh and Siro and Schuster are better

Rabbits21 wrote:
What don’t you like about Olak’auatu?

Don’t even understand why he is on your radar. 400k so not a cash out for a warm body and Schu and Siro due back very soon

All this Johnson talk has me thinking he may be a better pick-up than Koro.
I have the funds to choose Macca / Koro / Johnson.
Already have Cleary & Moses (plus Beanz & Schuster as back-up halves)
Only back-up hooker is Watson.
TU - stick with a Hooker
TD - Jump the Shark

Have I been talked into SJ??

20K for Watson > SJ and I don't have any R17 halves

EDIT: I REALLY want to see Watson's role with Pearce and Ponga there. I can wait a week - even with a Watson 30 and a SJ 60, the gap goes from 20K to 70K which I can live with.

Only way I can get tohu is via hunt.. no brainer right?

WT2K wrote:Only way I can get tohu is via hunt.. no brainer right?

Pretty much.  Increased 7-8 ppg and an extra game.

Not seeing Hunt go back to his 55's ?

Revraiser wrote:Not seeing Hunt go back to his 55's ?

Maybe,  but Tohu 62-63.

Mr peanutbutter wrote:Bit of a different direction to the pack. I'm thinking of bringing in Cook this week. Keeper for the rest of the season. Hopefully playing origin is the inspiration he needs to get firing.

Also getting Cleary back in now. I think it was worth the wasted trades to take him out and bring him back. Went from barely top 3000 to top 300 in the last few weeks

Ive been considering bringing Cook in this week. Its either Cook this week or wait for Mahoney in rd 18. Im actually leaning towards Mahoney over Cook. Not sure why.

As mentioned by others the Broncos can make the most average player look like a champion. Simo still a risk.

Honey Badger wrote:

Ive been considering bringing Cook in this week. Its either Cook this week or wait for Mahoney in rd 18. Im actually leaning towards Mahoney over Cook. Not sure why.

I've got itchy trigger fingers hanging over Matterson->Cook....