by mrbrownstone Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:08 am
On DCE vs Cleary, it's the uncertain timeline that hurts. If Cleary's back next week it's probably fine, but 6 weeks of DCE vs 4 of Cleary becomes more interesting.
If DCE averages 70 over the last 6, Cleary has to average 105 over 4 to match that (for the sake of this I'll assume whichever one I have I'm captaining). If Cleary is back next week he has to average 84 to match that, which is managable. If DCE could push that to 75, Cleary would need 112.5 over 4 weeks or 90 over 5 to match it. Obviously, you wouldn't put either past him.
The other thing is that it impacts my second trade. Turbo over Ponga is at least a 10 point upgrade at this rate.
If Turbo and DCE maintain current averages for 6 weeks, that's 847.2 points + captaincy on one of them.
5 weeks of Cleary + 6 of Ponga (assuming his injury adjusted 57.9 average) = 831.9. Of course, also have to factor in points for Fog (Cleary replacement) this week, which would push that option ahead, but it's any threat of setback that worries me.
Obviously, this is the kind of math that immediately backfires when Cleary breaks his own record two weeks in a row.