This is my 2nd year of NRLFF and I'm happy to be in 52nd going into the final round - even if I slip backwards due to only rolling out 15 men.
I've really appreciated the ideas (and the banter) on the forum. My big idea is a slight tweak to the concept of guns and cash cows. I think that guns can usefully be divided into
- machine guns, who are reliable guns that play almost every match and seldom produce a dud score
- loose cannons, who are capable of being guns but are at higher risk of not playing (due to suspension, injury, being rested) or of a dud score (role sharing, not having their head in the game).
And I think that cash cows are short-hand for ladders, and the other key goal is to avoid snakes.
Therefore my goal is to take the longest ladders, avoid the longest snakes, fill my available budget with machine guns, take some calculated risks on loose cannons, and always have a couple of captaincy options.
A simple definition of guns is the max value they achieved over the season, which differs by position, but gives a pretty recognisable list as shown below. My split between machine guns and loose cannons is more judgmental, and I'm sure plenty will disagree, but again I've tried to base it on stats for this season - number of games played, and probability of a dud score.
Machine gun threshold (max price achieved during season)
CTR 580000 Burton, Rapana, Manu, Peachey, Gagai, Aitken, Bird, Graham
WFB 700000 Douehi, To'o, Gutherson, Garrick
EDG 730000 Tohu, iPap, Pangai, Jackson, Murray, Dfifi, Frizell
MID 740000 Tohu, iPap, Pangai, BSmith, Haas, Klemmer, Yeo, Jtrbo
HLF 740000 DCE, Hughes, Moses, Douehi
HOK 780000 Cook, Mahoney, JBrailey
Total 30
Loose cannon threshold (max price achieved during season)
CTR 580000 Ramien, Averillo, Best, Lomax
WFB 700000 Turbo, Papenhuyzen, Tedesco, Ponga, Hynes, Mitchell, BMoz
EDG 730000 ACrichton, Matterson
MID 740000 ACrichton, Taumalolo, Carrigan
HLF 740000 BHunt, Cleary, Munster, Hynes
HOK 780000 BHunt, Grant, Koro
Total 20
Ladders (descending order to 250k)
CTR Averillo
WFB Turbo, Hynes, Garrick, Walsh, Laurie, Johnston, Tedesco
EDG Curran, CHN, Schuster, iPap, Haumole, Riki, Koloa
MID Curran, Utoi, iPap, Watson, Haumole, Lodge, Koloa
HLF Hynes, Averillo, Trindall, Schuster, SWalker, LCroker, Sexton, O'Sullivan
HOK JBrailey, Watson, Liddle, LCroker, Verrills, JLussick
Total 27
Snakes (descending order to 250k)
CTR
WFB Papenhuyzen, Tedesco, Ponga
EDG Lawton, Cartwright
MID Haas, MEisenhuth
HLF Nikorima, Luai, Lam, Flanagan, Mann
HOK Starling, Lawton
Total 14
Potential captaincy options:
Cleary, DCE, iPap, Turbo, Tohu, Haas, Dfifi, Hughes
I realise that it's easier to identify machine guns, loose cannons, snakes and ladders in retrospect, but there seems a fair likelihood that most of this year's guns will continue to be so, and that those who finished this year near their peak value are more likely to be next year's snakes rather than ladders, but those who finished 250k below their peak have a chance of being a ladder, so I've listed them below in decreasing order. It obviously depends on their role / injury situation / proximity to retirement etc as well as whether their starting price next year is adjusted (as I expect it will be for Pap).
Papenhuyzen, Nikorima, Lawton, Matt Eisenhuth, Luai, Cartwright, Lam, Flanagan, Mann
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