NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 92 - Fanatics Anonymous Off Season

Snatchpato wrote:Current first lineup, please let me know your thoughts.

Grant (will not play R1)
Uto Peach (given the lock role) James
Aitken Blore
Cleary Ilias
Tago Lomax
Papy CNK Coates

Taffe Suaalli Randall (R1 hok) SCrichton
KHetherington King Davey Howarth

- I'm thinking Davey and Howarth might get decent roles throughout the season, which will save me a trade and generate some coin.
- I really want Lomax in my team. I see him as 5-10 points under priced, think this one will be controversial
- I have 177k ITB, so can probably get Hastings who I know I'm missing. Anyone else obvious I've overlooked? I don't really understand the love for TPJ if anyone can clarify that for me.

Taaffe is a trap, he'll play FB round 1 and 2, then he'll either play a small role off the bench or go out of the side altogether. Not really a bit fantasy scorer either

Snatchpato wrote:Current first lineup, please let me know your thoughts.

Grant (will not play R1)
Uto Peach (given the lock role) James
Aitken Blore
Cleary Ilias
Tago Lomax
Papy CNK Coates

Taffe Suaalli Randall (R1 hok) SCrichton
KHetherington King Davey Howarth

- I'm thinking Davey and Howarth might get decent roles throughout the season, which will save me a trade and generate some coin.
- I really want Lomax in my team. I see him as 5-10 points under priced, think this one will be controversial
- I have 177k ITB, so can probably get Hastings who I know I'm missing. Anyone else obvious I've overlooked? I don't really understand the love for TPJ if anyone can clarify that for me.

Ryan James: Haas will be #1 middle (say 65mins) leaving James to fight for remaking 175 minutes with Flegler, Carrigan, Hetherington. If these 3 play 50mins each, only leaves 25 for James. Looks like he’ll need absolute minimum 40mins to have enough value. Any broncos fans want to hazard a guess how the minutes might be spread?

Lomax: I’ve been eyeing him, and also had him a bit underpriced - but had max of 5.

Jumping Marlin wrote:

Ryan James:  Haas will be #1 middle (say 65mins) leaving James to fight for remaking 175 minutes with Flegler, Carrigan, Hetherington.  If these 3 play 50mins each, only leaves 25 for James.  Looks like he’ll need absolute minimum 40mins to have enough value.  Any broncos fans want to hazard a guess how the minutes might be spread?

If James starts over Flegler and Hetherington, he will not be getting half the game time they do.

If James doesn't start most people will jump off him.

I don't really see the value in James, he likely starts in RND 1 (Flegler suspended) but seems like a 40 min per game guy at best. Priced at 34 there isn't a huge amount of upside there.

Haas and Carrigan are going to be the big min mids.

Jumping Marlin wrote:

Ryan James:  Haas will be #1 middle (say 65mins) leaving James to fight for remaking 175 minutes with Flegler, Carrigan, Hetherington.  If these 3 play 50mins each, only leaves 25 for James.  Looks like he’ll need absolute minimum 40mins to have enough value.  Any broncos fans want to hazard a guess how the minutes might be spread?

Lomax:  I’ve been eyeing him, and also had him a bit underpriced - but had max of 5.

First 3 games Flegler plays 0 minutes. Carrigan is back, so Hetherington should be back to a bench spot, maybe 30 minutes. Probably gets some time from Turpin as well, who finished up the season just playing a 40-50 minute hooker role. Once Flegler is back, he may not spend much time as a middle forward at all and could mostly be bench hooker. Flegler averages 35 minutes off the interchange and has never stepped up when given the chance to start. James should remain as starting prop for the season. A proven big minute performer.

Carrigan likely 50-60 minutes, coming back from injury. No need for him to play 80 minutes this season with James available to pick up 50ish minutes. Would leave about 15 minutes for another bench forward to get some time on the field those first few games.

my tv broke wrote:I don't really see the value in James, he likely starts in RND 1 but seems like a 40 min per game guy at best. Priced at 34 there isn't a huge amount of upside there.

Playing 30+ minutes last year he averaged 44. Is he a worse bet than some PPM guy who'll get you less points, but faster.

Biggest issue is he loses TB points but doesn't gain offloads.

He has made literally just 1 offload in the last 3 years. Admittedly he missed a lot of games due to injury, but he has made 1 offload in his last 13 hours of football

Not long to go before the first party of the year, then we can start the 2022 threads in earnest.

Milchcow wrote:

Playing 30+ minutes last year he averaged 44. Is he a worse bet than some PPM guy who'll get you less points, but faster.

seems maintainable

mattnz wrote:

First 3 games Flegler plays 0 minutes. Carrigan is back, so Hetherington should be back to a bench spot, maybe 30 minutes. Probably gets some time from Turpin as well, who finished up the season just playing a 40-50 minute hooker role. Once Flegler is back, he may not spend much time as a middle forward at all and could mostly be bench hooker. Flegler averages 35 minutes off the interchange and has never stepped up when given the chance to start. James should remain as starting prop for the season. A proven big minute performer.

Carrigan likely 50-60 minutes, coming back from injury. No need for him to play 80 minutes this season with James available to pick up 50ish minutes. Would leave about 15 minutes for another bench forward to get some time on the field those first few games.

I love it when Matt gets his doomed player crushes. Everything had seemed so sensible so far this year, a new leaf, but no.

my tv broke wrote:

seems maintainable

Its his lowest average for 30+ minute games since 2015 (when he averaged 40)

If you bump it up to 40+ minutes he averaged 49, which is a small sample size but an average he has hit for years.

If you assume a worst case of James only playing 30-40 minutes and rarely getting more, then he is probably slightly underpriced. Not enough value to pick him, but doubt you'd lose money.
Upside is pretty big though. Guess it depends how crocked he is and if he'll just end up with a Fifita like fall from grace.

Not sure there are many around that price I'd have more faith in. Maybe Gilbert if he does lock down an edge spot.

Milchcow wrote:Not sure there are many around that price I'd have more faith in. Maybe Gilbert if he does lock down an edge spot.

i'm not entirely against picking him. i haven't looked at anything yet. he's a reasonably safe bet to fill a spot at his price but i wouldnt be expecting to make money is all.

Jumping Marlin wrote:

Ryan James:  Haas will be #1 middle (say 65mins) leaving James to fight for remaking 175 minutes with Flegler, Carrigan, Hetherington.  If these 3 play 50mins each, only leaves 25 for James.  Looks like he’ll need absolute minimum 40mins to have enough value.  Any broncos fans want to hazard a guess how the minutes might be spread?

Lomax:  I’ve been eyeing him, and also had him a bit underpriced - but had max of 5.

I'd expect Haas to continue his 62 minutes average that he had in '21 with arguably a weaker forward pack (at that time).

Carrigan averaged 59 minutes, I'd think he'd be a similar amount of minutes, but wouldn't surprise me if it's closer to 55.

Hetherington average 45 minutes WHEN starting as Lock. I'd be a bit surprised if he retains that role, so I suspect he's more like the 35-45 range.

Flegler was 36 mins off the bench, 48 starting. I'd guess maybe low 40's for him.

Mid minutes = 240
Haas 62
Carrigan 56
Flegler 42 (midpoint)
Hetherington 40 (midpoint)

That would leave 40 minutes for someone (maybe James) - or multiple someone's depending on bench make-up
If they use Paix to spell Turpin, and one of the young edges largely as cover, then 40 minutes is plausible for someone like James.

It really depends on how Walters see's him. The guys only 30, so not exactly one foot in retirement, and showed with the Raiders that he can still be handy with a 40 minute spell. In fantasy terms, averaged 44 from 41 minutes in games over 30 minutes last year.

There's potential for 10+ points upside there, but certainly not without risk - I can see it going either way really, but my gut feel is that James will be utilised. It's a pity he's not keen on an offload.

TLDR: what everyone else said while I was eating lunch

rhinoceroo wrote:

I love it when Matt gets his doomed player crushes. Everything had seemed so sensible so far this year, a new leaf, but no.

One day Matt will magically will things into existence and we'll all sit in awe.
Someone will say "the force is strong in that one", and the Eels, Warriors, Titans, Bulldogs, Dragons, Cowboys, Knights, Rabbitohs, Broncos, Tigers will win the premiership

mattnz wrote:Who are the lesser owned players that you think we will all look back on in a few weeks and think, it was so obvious that we should have started with them this season?

I'd say McInnes. Question marks over role and new club and minutes. But he's less affected by the new rules, should probably play 80 mostly at lock but maybe some hooker. In that role he's likely to score 70. Priced at 62.6. I think a lot will avoid due to the salary cap and question marks over new role. I think there's even an argument to not start with Cleary. If Cleary continues to score 82 and McInnes indeed scores 70 and he's the alternative captain you need to find another 24 points. The $270k saved buys 21.7 points, but surely you can find more value than that. Cleary should maintain his high average but is he likely to add another 20 points like last season? I think that's unlikely. If all my assumptions are true I think it's doable. Probably too risky though with McInnes new club, role and form coming off an ACL.

Mulvy wrote:

I'd say McInnes. Question marks over role and new club and minutes. But he's less affected by the new rules, should probably play 80 mostly at lock but maybe some hooker. In that role he's likely to score 70. Priced at 62.6. I think a lot will avoid due to the salary cap and question marks over new role. I think there's even an argument to not start with Cleary. If Cleary continues to score 82 and McInnes indeed scores 70 and he's the alternative captain you need to find another 24 points. The $270k saved buys 21.7 points, but surely you can find more value than that. Cleary should maintain his high average but is he likely to add another 20 points like last season? I think that's unlikely. If all my assumptions are true I think it's doable. Probably too risky though with McInnes new club, role and form coming off an ACL.

If you could guarantee me McInnes plays 80 minutes I'd find a way to sneak him into my team. Problem is how the minutes play out for the Sharks. Tolman still hanging around, Rudolf might be the best 1%er guy in the NRL, Hamlin-Uele/Hunt/Pele/Talakai on the up swing and Williams played a decent role Only big minute middle lost was Woods but gained Finucane+McInnes to offset that. Coming back from injury too many question marks for me

Mulvy wrote:

I'd say McInnes. Question marks over role and new club and minutes. But he's less affected by the new rules, should probably play 80 mostly at lock but maybe some hooker. In that role he's likely to score 70. Priced at 62.6. I think a lot will avoid due to the salary cap and question marks over new role. I think there's even an argument to not start with Cleary. If Cleary continues to score 82 and McInnes indeed scores 70 and he's the alternative captain you need to find another 24 points. The $270k saved buys 21.7 points, but surely you can find more value than that. Cleary should maintain his high average but is he likely to add another 20 points like last season? I think that's unlikely. If all my assumptions are true I think it's doable. Probably too risky though with McInnes new club, role and form coming off an ACL.

I wouldn't start McInnis > Cleary on the basis of how he was in a different role a yearlong injury ago. For one thing, very unlikely to get 80 minutes straight back from ACL, for another pretty unlikely to get it at all in a stacked pack. He's a worker, but at the Dragons he had to do it all himself while the Sharks have a decent pack with Rudolf, Finucane etc. He's never been much of an attacking scorer, so that's how he'll have to get his points.

On Cleary... fwiw I think last year was the Panthers' peak (pretty good peak). Losing Burton, Capewell and Momo might not seem huge, but the depth guys from last year are now the starters, so where's the depth? They're still a top 4 side, but wouldn't pick them to do as well as in 2021, so fewer tries/assist and goals for Cleary to score from. Priced at 84 with 81 average under new scoring, I'd back him to regress a little to around 75-80. Still comfortably the top scorer in fantasy, so still a sensible Round 1 pick even if he's not value, but it's not the slam-dunk it was last year.

Better question than who is going to surprise everyone by scoring better than expected is who is going to surprise everyone and score worse.

I reckon Aitken has huge potential to let everyone down who picks him. Definitely unproven in his position and at his current price could cost a fair bit of initial salary for a decent loss in coin.

If he starts poorly there he could easily be bumped out for someone else and then you have a high priced CTR/EDG scoring as well/worse than the cheaper CTRs and a lot lower than the other EDG options at his price.

Mulvy wrote:

I'd say McInnes. Question marks over role and new club and minutes. But he's less affected by the new rules, should probably play 80 mostly at lock but maybe some hooker. In that role he's likely to score 70. Priced at 62.6. I think a lot will avoid due to the salary cap and question marks over new role. I think there's even an argument to not start with Cleary. If Cleary continues to score 82 and McInnes indeed scores 70 and he's the alternative captain you need to find another 24 points. The $270k saved buys 21.7 points, but surely you can find more value than that. Cleary should maintain his high average but is he likely to add another 20 points like last season? I think that's unlikely. If all my assumptions are true I think it's doable. Probably too risky though with McInnes new club, role and form coming off an ACL.

I really agree with this.
The main problem is that if it doesn't come off, it's really not worth risking your season over.

That being said, in the imaginary world of willing something to happen, I recall Fitzgibbon as being the kind've guy that plays 80 minutes at Lock and doesn't drop much in quality or believe that a rest is needed.

In McInnes, he sees a kindred spirit, albiet a much shorter one, but a guy on the same wavelength that is desperate to win and a desire to play 80 minutes each week.
To hold Cam2.0 back would be like Fitzy holding himself back, so McInnes ends up averaging 75+ minutes a week at pretty much 1PPM.
At least that's how the story plays out in the unreality...

or maybe in reality:

rhinoceroo wrote:

I wouldn't start McInnis > Cleary on the basis of how he was in a different role a yearlong injury ago. For one thing, very unlikely to get 80 minutes straight back from ACL, for another pretty unlikely to get it at all in a stacked pack. He's a worker, but at the Dragons he had to do it all himself while the Sharks have a decent pack with Rudolf, Finucane etc. He's never been much of an attacking scorer, so that's how he'll have to get his points.

The thing is, he's not coming straight back from an ACL injury/surgery.
When Tohu Harris & Doueihi return they will be coming straight back from ACL - no pre-season bootcamps, sand-dunes, general physical hell... and the players around them will have weeks/months of match fitness.

McInnes completed 9 months of recovery in November - he will have had a full pre-season. Unless there's some residual issues (which by all accounts there isn't), then he's as likely to play 80 minutes as any other player in his position.
They won't need to ease him in, he will have had nearly 4 months to do that.

The stacked pack is obviously true though

easytiger wrote:

I really agree with this.
The main problem is that if it doesn't come off, it's really not worth risking your season over.

That being said, in the imaginary world of willing something to happen, I recall Fitzgibbon as being the kind've guy that plays 80 minutes at Lock and doesn't drop much in quality or believe that a rest is needed.

In McInnes, he sees a kindred spirit, albiet a much shorter one, but a guy on the same wavelength that is desperate to win and a desire to play 80 minutes each week.
To hold Cam2.0 back would be like Fitzy holding himself back, so McInnes ends up averaging 75+ minutes a week at pretty much 1PPM.
At least that's how the story plays out in the unreality...

or maybe in reality:

Fitzy was a much better player that Mcinnis. Bit of fantasy goggles on, plus a bit of the fact that he was the only one who put in any work at the Dragons, but it was still a very bad team.

I mean, if you're going to pick someone who can score large instead of Cleary if they get an 80-minute role then I'd look at Difita long before CM9/13.