Homerhinoceroo wrote:
Load up on SJ!
*(I'm joking, but now I'm actually thinking about it, gah)
Shaun Johnson is going to be one of those picks that seem obvious in hindsight that no-one makes
NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets
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- Post n°261
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets
by The Dolphin Conspiracies Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:20 pm
Shaun Johnson is going to be one of those picks that seem obvious in hindsight that no-one makes
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- Post n°262
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets
by L-Jimmy Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:25 pm
multiple.scoregasms wrote:
I think on squad balance I'm going to only have one of Aitken and Burton for round 1. Leaning towards Burton because I think he has more chance to burn me if I'm wrong
I see Burton with a floor of 40 average and a ceiling of 65 average while Aitken is probably closer to 35 floor 55 ceiling. Due to 4 tries in 5 games it's hard to project Aitken's score moving forward. I'm kind of projecting his ceiling based on a similar player in Frizell. Both are good hole runners, solid defenders, not huge metre eaters and play for fringe top 8 teams. Of course if Aitken continues to score 4 tries every 5 games that projection will look pretty silly, but I don't think he will massively out perform his price
I agree with the logic - had arrived at the same place myself, but perhaps with a stronger no-Aitken.
I suspect the trick will be if RFM isn't named at TLT - as per the NRLPhysio rumour matt posted earlier.
In that case we'll be looking to pick up another cheap, playing, EDG. Cowboys probably. Wade perhaps if named and DPP. Maybe Katoa. Likely Beau.
But a few may be a bit tempted by an early look at Aitken (weirdly for his EDG dual!)
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- Post n°263
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets
by The Dolphin Conspiracies Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:30 pm
multiple.scoregasms wrote:
I think on squad balance I'm going to only have one of Aitken and Burton for round 1. Leaning towards Burton because I think he has more chance to burn me if I'm wrong
I see Burton with a floor of 40 average and a ceiling of 65 average while Aitken is probably closer to 35 floor 55 ceiling. Due to 4 tries in 5 games it's hard to project Aitken's score moving forward. I'm kind of projecting his ceiling based on a similar player in Frizell. Both are good hole runners, solid defenders, not huge metre eaters and play for fringe top 8 teams. Of course if Aitken continues to score 4 tries every 5 games that projection will look pretty silly, but I don't think he will massively out perform his price
I don't know what you are seeing but when I look at Aitken stats in the second row I see a regular base of 50 points in base stats (tackles, run metres, and 2 point tackle-breaks. The exception is the outlier of 5 missed tackles against the Raiders. For someone who is priced at 43 that is gold, especially when he also gets regular attacking stats. With the tries, over the 5 game stint, he averages 66.2. Just for argument's sake we take 10 points off per try over those 5 games he is still 13 points undervalued. He is a no-brainer
Last edited by The Dolphin Conspiracies on Mon Jan 31, 2022 2:00 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets
by mattnz Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:33 pm
The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:
Shaun Johnson is going to be one of those picks that seem obvious in hindsight that no-one makes
I was thinking he must be way down on running meters this year, but didn't realise he is priced based on just 68 running meters, 1 tackle bust per game and 1 try for the season. High risk of re-injury obviously though.
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- Post n°265
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets
by The Dolphin Conspiracies Mon Jan 31, 2022 1:50 pm
It is interesting to note that while playing at 5/8 last year (in a 5 game sample) Burton actually averaged 69.8. In the R16 game against the Eels, where he scored 19, he actually played at CTR with May in the halves. Even if Burton regresses 10 points at the Bulldogs he is at least 10 points undervalued. I am not sure where the doubts are creeping in.
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The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:In the R16 game against the Eels, where he scored 19, he actually played at CTR with May in the halves.
Cheers for the reminder. I noted that at the time being a Burton owner but had forgotten since.
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets
by Milchcow Mon Jan 31, 2022 2:34 pm
The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:
Shaun Johnson is going to be one of those picks that seem obvious in hindsight that no-one makes
80 points rd1
12 points and injury rd2
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets
by The Dolphin Conspiracies Mon Jan 31, 2022 3:04 pm
Milchcow wrote:
80 points rd1
12 points and injury rd2
They call him the
- Milchcow:
At the start of the pre-season, I could not think of a worse pick than Xavier Coates. But now I am scraping the bottom of the barrel for bench cover at WFB, he keeps poking his head up. Moving to the Storm was worth about a 10 point average jump for Gennings. Can we expect the same for Coates MC Bubble Burster?
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- Post n°269
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets
by FalconSloth Mon Jan 31, 2022 3:37 pm
I reckon he is atleast 10 points underpriced if he stays fitThe Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:
Shaun Johnson is going to be one of those picks that seem obvious in hindsight that no-one makes
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- Post n°270
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets
by L-Jimmy Mon Jan 31, 2022 3:55 pm
Huh. Looking at border restrictions, the NRL decision not to expand to Perth seems like a pretty good call. Super Rugby is having a major re-jig of schedules - more stress on top of vaxx hesitancy in Pasifika communities.
Not sure I can complement PVL or whomever on this basis, but it was still a good call.
Not sure I can complement PVL or whomever on this basis, but it was still a good call.
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- Post n°271
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets
by Chewie Mon Jan 31, 2022 4:02 pm
The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:
They call him the
- Milchcow:
At the start of the pre-season, I could not think of a worse pick than Xavier Coates. But now I am scraping the bottom of the barrel for bench cover at WFB, he keeps poking his head up. Moving to the Storm was worth about a 10 point average jump for Gennings. Can we expect the same for Coates MC Bubble Burster?
Hmmm
JAC had 23 tries last season at the Storm.
Coates had 11 tries at the Broncos.
You would expect Coates to score a few more this season, which could result in a 5-10 point average jump.
2021 avg per game
JAC: 1.1 Try, 1.3 LB, 3.5 TB, 127.3 RM
Coates: 0.6 Try, 0.5 LB, 1.4 TB, 100,8 RM
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- Post n°272
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets
by multiple.scoregasms Mon Jan 31, 2022 4:10 pm
The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:
Shaun Johnson is going to be one of those picks that seem obvious in hindsight that no-one makes
Before kick metres got nerfed he was a lock for my team
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets
by mattnz Mon Jan 31, 2022 4:20 pm
multiple.scoregasms wrote:
Before kick metres got nerfed he was a lock for my team
His price was reduced accordingly. Unless you expect a significant increase in kick meters from last season, it shouldn't make a difference
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- Post n°274
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets
by Regulator Mon Jan 31, 2022 4:25 pm
Rabbits21 wrote:I’m warming to starting with Christian Welch after studying his stats. I might be aboard the Welch train Beth. I think I trust his role and mins more than Uto. Storm have lost Finucane, NAS and Tui as well in the poo I really think Welch could get 55mins and look at his offload ability.
His miss tackles just get frustrating AF as an owner.
They aren't even bad miss tackles, you'll see him make two tackles in a row and be like good man Welch, then he'll throw an arm out trying to make three in a row that he's never going to reach and undoes the points.
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- Post n°275
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets
by Regulator Mon Jan 31, 2022 4:28 pm
If Chanel wins the other half spot for the Warriors, I'll likely get SJ.
If Taylor gets it, then I probably won't.
CHT has no kicking game, and little game with the ball in hand period, SJ would be doing a lot.
If Taylor gets it, then I probably won't.
CHT has no kicking game, and little game with the ball in hand period, SJ would be doing a lot.
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- Post n°276
Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets
by No Worries Mon Jan 31, 2022 4:29 pm
Milchcow wrote:
80 points rd1
12 points and injury rd2
Then I sell him and he goes back to scoring 80's
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets
by mattnz Mon Jan 31, 2022 4:29 pm
Regulator wrote:
His miss tackles just get frustrating AF as an owner.
They aren't even bad miss tackles, you'll see him make two tackles in a row and be like good man Welch, then he'll throw an arm out trying to make three in a row that he's never going to reach and undoes the points.
Most useful post this week. That alone would be enough to stop me getting him.
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multiple.scoregasms wrote:
Before kick metres got nerfed he was a lock for my team
mattnz wrote:
His price was reduced accordingly. Unless you expect a significant increase in kick meters from last season, it shouldn't make a difference
Think I'm with MS on this one. Yes his price has been reduced accordingly and yes he is undervalued, but if a gun is undervalued by a few points that's a good pick. But the nerf means he might not even break 50 which begs the question, is he still a gun? Big difference between someone priced at 51 who you expect to hit 55 vs someone priced at 44 who you expect to score 48. If they're not a gun and not making much money it's a poor pick. There's probably some merit in picking him depending on how undervalued you think he is, but not an insta pick.
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets
by mattnz Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:03 pm
Mulvy wrote:
Think I'm with MS on this one. Yes his price has been reduced accordingly and yes he is undervalued, but if a gun is undervalued by a few points that's a good pick. But the nerf means he might not even break 50 which begs the question, is he still a gun? Big difference between someone priced at 51 who you expect to hit 55 vs someone priced at 44 who you expect to score 48. If they're not a gun and not making much money it's a poor pick. There's probably some merit in picking him depending on how undervalued you think he is, but not an insta pick.
All gun halves have lost 1/3rd of their kicking meter points. It is a pretty level playing field.
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets
by The Dolphin Conspiracies Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:19 pm
Mulvy wrote:
Think I'm with MS on this one. Yes his price has been reduced accordingly and yes he is undervalued, but if a gun is undervalued by a few points that's a good pick. But the nerf means he might not even break 50 which begs the question, is he still a gun? Big difference between someone priced at 51 who you expect to hit 55 vs someone priced at 44 who you expect to score 48. If they're not a gun and not making much money it's a poor pick. There's probably some merit in picking him depending on how undervalued you think he is, but not an insta pick.
I just had a bit of a look. Shaun Johnson really loves a missed tackle doesn't he? That is what stops him from being a gun. I think he is a pass
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