NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets

mrbrownstone wrote:Have had COVID so not looked at anything fantasy related for a week or so. Why is Jack Howarth suddenly up to 26% ownership?

The Autofill algorithm really loves $220k players so a whole bunch of them get artificially large selection numbers at the start of the season.

Some might be legitimate selections, but nobody really expects Jayden Berell or Jenson Taumoepeau to get much of a run this year

robelgordo wrote:I had Wade Graham last season and was mocked for it. But there was clear value due to price discount from concussions and playing around Origin byes. He then got a bunch of further concussions so it didn’t end well.

I might get Wade Graham again this season - same reasons, more obvious risk

At this point I’m wondering whether myself or Wade has the bigger career threatening brain injury. I have had at least three concussions tbf, and far more interesting ones than “head in wrong position in tackle”.

Depends whose tackle, I suppose.

Milchcow wrote:

The Autofill algorithm really loves $220k players so a whole bunch of them get artificially large selection numbers at the start of the season.

Some might be legitimate selections, but nobody really expects Jayden Berell or Jenson Taumoepeau to get much of a run this year

People who actually believe Howarth is on 500k this year might have picked him up for 220k.

I’m looking forward to Howarth being named in jersey 16 R1, everyone getting on him. Then he plays 12 minutes and is dropped when Cheese and Lewis return. His next appearance is during Origin.

robelgordo wrote:I’m looking forward to Howarth being named in jersey 16 R1, everyone getting on him. Then he plays 12 minutes and is dropped when Cheese and Lewis return. His next appearance is during Origin.

Surprises me that people expect anything different to this tbh

Honestly who cares about ownership percentage at the moment.

In 90% cases by the time round 1 starts we'll know if they are an actually useful selection or not. And everyone will have traded them in/out accordingly.

Milchcow wrote:
Honestly who cares about ownership percentage at the moment.

In 90% cases by the time round 1 starts we'll know if they are an actually useful selection or not. And everyone will have traded them in/out accordingly.

Yeah. This is basically the reason I don't bother making a team yet, your entire team can change once the team lists come out.

rhinoceroo wrote:

People who actually believe Howarth is on 500k this year might have picked him up for 220k.

Guaranteed $280k price rise.
That is how it works right?

Some interesting reading from Penrith's physiotherapist Pete Green on Nathan Cleary;

“We banked on him returning by Round 3, just to give him that extra time because he’s young and still has his whole career ahead of him. But he’s done so well the last month, he’s put himself right in the frame for that first game,"

“Nathan does all his team skills and opposed sessions in a red bib. He’s getting a few bumps and hit from front on. He’s also been falling a lot and getting knocked over, which we did a ton of before his surgery, just to get him to react and land on his shoulder in different ways.

“He’s had a lot of heavy-duty falls the past fortnight and he’s done well. He’ll run plays and then get caught up with a few bodies. Nathan then has to work out whether to land on his left or right shoulder, to put the arm out or tuck it under and roll.”

“The next three to four weeks will be a combination of getting confidence in the shoulder by returning to all of his contact and wrestle training. He will take it from being in a controlled environment to going full pelt."

“He’s certainly a chance to be ready for Round 1"

robelgordo wrote:I had Wade Graham last season and was mocked for it. But there was clear value due to price discount from concussions and playing around Origin byes. He then got a bunch of further concussions so it didn’t end well.

I might get Wade Graham again this season - same reasons, more obvious risk

At this point I’m wondering whether myself or Wade has the bigger career threatening brain injury. I have had at least three concussions tbf, and far more interesting ones than “head in wrong position in tackle”.

If he starts the year fit he is great value. I think he is probably 1 head knock away from Cordner/Friend situation so might have to move him on quickly

Do we think there is enough value in Kurt Mann if he starts? Priced at 38 would get Mid/half dpp and should get around 50mins.

With Blore out, what does this open up for the Tigers edge forwards? Garner and Leilua starting, then Tuki Simpkins first up if there's an injury / suspension? Where is Tuilagi in the pecking order?

Rabbits21 wrote:Do we think there is enough value in Kurt Mann if he starts? Priced at 38 would get Mid/half dpp and should get around 50mins.

I think he's a pretty safe option. He should at least match his break-even.
If he gets HLF/MID DPP after rd1 TLT he'll provide great bench cover for that tricky MID position and will most likely make it onto my interchange.
If he doesn't get the DPP it will be a different story

easytiger wrote:Some interesting reading from Penrith's physiotherapist Pete Green on Nathan Cleary;

“We banked on him returning by Round 3, just to give him that extra time because he’s young and still has his whole career ahead of him. But he’s done so well the last month, he’s put himself right in the frame for that first game,"

“Nathan does all his team skills and opposed sessions in a red bib. He’s getting a few bumps and hit from front on. He’s also been falling a lot and getting knocked over, which we did a ton of before his surgery, just to get him to react and land on his shoulder in different ways.

“He’s had a lot of heavy-duty falls the past fortnight and he’s done well. He’ll run plays and then get caught up with a few bodies. Nathan then has to work out whether to land on his left or right shoulder, to put the arm out or tuck it under and roll.”

“The next three to four weeks will be a combination of getting confidence in the shoulder by returning to all of his contact and wrestle training. He will take it from being in a controlled environment to going full pelt."

“He’s certainly a chance to be ready for Round 1"

Vey good chance it doesn't but my first reaction to this is will this take away from his confidence in contact and could this heavily depreciate his attacking stats?

FalconSloth wrote:
Vey good chance it doesn't but my first reaction to this is will this take away from his confidence in contact and could this heavily depreciate his attacking stats?

I wouldn't think so.
Last year he was one over extension away from missing a finals campaign/ grand final - and he didn't shy away from anything.
If he's playing he's fine

The Bludger#2 wrote:With Blore out, what does this open up for the Tigers edge forwards? Garner and Leilua starting, then Tuki Simpkins first up if there's an injury / suspension? Where is Tuilagi in the pecking order?

.Tuilagi was more of a chance before it came out that he's heading to Manly next year.

Not much point taking a risk on blooding a player into a starting role to gain experience for someone else. That being said, I think he's a good signing for the Sea Eagles and may get some bench minutes this year

easytiger wrote:

.Tuilagi was more of a chance before it came out that he's heading to Manly next year.

Not much point taking a risk on blooding a player into a starting role to gain experience for someone else. That being said, I think he's a good signing for the Sea Eagles and may get some bench minutes this year

Does this mean Tigers fans are leaning towards Simpkins as first reserve for starting edge if there's an injury / suspension?
I know he had a driving incident last year, but it seemed pretty harmless (legally).

The Bludger#2 wrote:With Blore out, what does this open up for the Tigers edge forwards? Garner and Leilua starting, then Tuki Simpkins first up if there's an injury / suspension? Where is Tuilagi in the pecking order?

Tuki was a naughty boy in the offseason. Hit and run without a license, (implies it isn't his first time in trouble for driving offences). Should start the season suspended for a few weeks.

Wouldn't surprise me to see Peach get an edge if one of them is out.

mattnz wrote:

Tuki was a naughty boy in the offseason. Hit and run without a license, (implies it isn't his first time in trouble for driving offences). Should start the season suspended for a few weeks.

Wouldn't surprise me to see Peach get an edge if one of them is out.

Hold up, hold up

it was a hit and run, but he just went up the kerb into a fence then fled the scene. You make it sound like he’s mowed someone down

Fled due to the unlicensed bit. Obviously an idiot for driving and then running, but he’s likely a P-plater where one speeding ticket can see you have or suspended. And he wasn’t drunk. So not necessarily a serial offender just a kid that panicked.

The worst part for me is he was driving his teammates to Maccas - I think that’s where a smart club with a good culture of success just wouldn’t let that situation arise. Like I reckon Bennett or Bellamy knows who can and can’t drive at their club  and there’s enough experienced players to make sure that doesn’t happen.

I feel like a lot of teams will draft useless 240k players in an effort to free more cash for the 17 and end up shooting themselves in the foot. Don't forget that the extra value of a slightly pricier cash cow is already locked in when you go to sell.

Scene 1:
[enter stage left]: Gerald Binlicker is a cheapskate and a drunkard who never had time for his kids, so he drafts Will Smith when he sees him on the Titans bench come TLT, mostly because he costs $240k and this provides him the wiggleroom to get the 1-17 he wants. But his cash gen gets flipped-turned upside down as Smith proceeds to play for 18 minutes off the bench each week and is still about $240k when Davvy Moale: First cash cow of 2022 pops up in team lists and Gerald Binlicker, famed for cowardice and body odour, is forced to make a straight trade.

Scene 2:
[dim spotlight focuses on]: Zack Freebird is a wildman with a heart of gold. Women want him, and men want to be women who want him- so naturally he paid the little extra to draft Haze Dunster for 298k. Dunster scores a tradesman's 32 average, and makes a tidy $180k profit when Zack Freebird eventually sells him to Davvy Moale: First cash cow of 2022, a trade made from an iPhone 14 from the back of a motorcycle doing a 332km wheelie as a fundraiser for kids cancer.

~curtain~