NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 1 - fire up the spreadsheets

White Lightning wrote:fun fact mark nicholls at souths is the only player in the nrl who's first name is mark.

Proof that the NRL's longstanding policy of rubbing the dirty marks out of the game is working

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

Mann for sure. Much harder to predict Cotter's minutes. They may be minimal

Yeah Mann probably 50-60 and Cotter 45-55

I have a pool

that was excellent

Has anyone noticed that Silvia Havili is only 283k? What are the chances of him playing a role in the prop rotation rather than taking minutes of Cook/Murray? Would he get DPP straight away if that is the case or in R6? In any case, maybe interesting to see what the trials reveal. He has the potential to score more consistently as a MID with an increase in minutes, then will take Cooks spot over origin?

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:Has anyone noticed that Silvia Havili is only 283k? What are the chances of him playing a role in the prop rotation rather than taking minutes of Cook? Would he get DPP straight away if that is the case or in R6? In any case, maybe interesting to see what the trials reveal. He has the potential to score more consistently as a MID with an increase in minutes, then will take Cooks spot over origin?

I like the idea. With Arrow playing edge there could be some minutes up for grabs.

Would need to be getting about 40 minutes a game to make him good value, but if we get a disappointing TLT with few in the $220-240k range you could consider him.

He wouldn't get DPP until round 6 (if then)

Thinking the forwards would look something like:
Starting mids - Burgess (48), Tatola (40), Murray (62). Leaves 90 minutes for bench mids.
Starting edges - Arrow, Kaeon
Bench - Nicholls (35), Knight (30), Host (51), Havili

Not sure there are many minutes left for Havili, especially if Arrow plays time in the middle as well.

I'm actually shocked Havili doesn't have DPP or MID exclusively to be honest. Worth remembering though come TLT that Souths bench may change when Latrell comes back, with Havili likely battling it out with Taaffe for the 14 jersey depending on the team make up and tactics. I'd expect Host, Burgess (Tatola/Nicholls starting) and Sele or Knight to make up the other 3.

If I was gonna punt on him I'd probably wait til round 3 when you'll have a bit more clarify regarding his role

Have had COVID so not looked at anything fantasy related for a week or so. Why is Jack Howarth suddenly up to 26% ownership?

it is quite possible to fit a lot of high potential DPPs into a well-rounded, under-valued team. Could come in quite handy if there are COVID disruptions to teams.

Grant
Utoikamanu Papalii (MID/EDG) (could put McInnes here instead) Gilbert (MID/EDG)
Bird (EDG/CTR) Aitken (EDG/CTR)
Hynes (HLF/WFB) Mann
Burton (HLF/CTR) Penisini
Tabuai-Fidow (CTR/WFB) Papenhuyzen Crichton (CTR/WFB)

Walker (MID/HLF) Randall Tago (EDG/CTR) Ilias

Cook Walters Howarth Kei

mrbrownstone wrote:Have had COVID so not looked at anything fantasy related for a week or so. Why is Jack Howarth suddenly up to 26% ownership?

Both our back rowers are confirmed leaving to the Dolphins in 2023, and Howarth has re-signed for a 5-year $500k a year deal.

TLDR: the kid's a fucking gun and I think it's highly likely he's got one of the starting spots by the end of this year, all it will take is an injury or suspension and he'll do well enough to keep the spot.

Interesting discussion of Croker and Teddy's knee stem cell surgery.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nrl-premiership/had-1012-weeks-relatively-off-his-feet-tedescos-shock-offseason-surgery-revealed/news-story/0b0fe6ef98cea0741d0198060b685c95

“Tedesco’s knee pain wasn’t as debilitating, with it just causing him some discomfort toward the back end of last season.

“He might be in a similar situation to Croker in a couple of years time but for now there’s no concerns for his availability to start 2022.”

Teddy may not be a top 3 WFB at some point in the next couple of years.

Also worth noting that in 2018 when he had the same surgery over the off-season, he started the year pretty slow with 2 scores under 30 in the first 3 rounds.

I have been thinking about the likely impact of the rule changes and think they will likely lead to more tries this season than last year.

Penalties within the 40 meter zone will get teams into attacking positions in the opposition half. Once they are there, they are still going to be getting 6 again calls, that will keep them in the attacking zone and getting multiple attacking sets.

This could easily lead to Turbo getting to repeat a similar season to last year.

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:it is quite possible to fit a lot of high potential DPPs into a well-rounded, under-valued team. Could come in quite handy if there are COVID disruptions to teams.

Grant
Utoikamanu Papalii (MID/EDG) (could put McInnes here instead) Gilbert (MID/EDG)
Bird (EDG/CTR) Aitken (EDG/CTR)
Hynes (HLF/WFB) Mann
Burton (HLF/CTR) Penisini
Tabuai-Fidow (CTR/WFB) Papenhuyzen Crichton (CTR/WFB)

Walker (MID/HLF) Randall Tago (EDG/CTR) Ilias

Cook Walters Howarth Kei

Team entirely made from those who are or will be DPP

BSmith
TPJ Arrow Angus
Aitken Gilbert
Burton Mann
Crichton Bird
HTF Hynes Suallii

KHeth, JHeth, Cotter, Peachey
Tago, Berry, Cotric, Moylan


Haven't checked cap, feels like it's over, but it won't win you the comp anyway.

mattnz wrote:I have been thinking about the likely impact of the rule changes and think they will likely lead to more tries this season than last year.

Penalties within the 40 meter zone will get teams into attacking positions in the opposition half. Once they are there, they are still going to be getting 6 again calls, that will keep them in the attacking zone and getting multiple attacking sets.

This could easily lead to Turbo getting to repeat a similar season to last year.

The most obvious effect of the rule changes is it'll reduce kick metres a little

It might also mean a slight uptick in middles run metres and corresponding down in WFB/CTR run metres as props are taking first hit-ups from penalties rather than backs carting it out from their own end.

rhinoceroo wrote:

The most obvious effect of the rule changes is it'll reduce kick metres a little

It might also mean a slight uptick in middles run metres and corresponding down in WFB/CTR run metres as props are taking first hit-ups from penalties rather than backs carting it out from their own end.

I am not really expecting a large increase in penalties, to be honest. Players will just modify their game to avoid the penalty

Havili isn’t the second choice hooker at Souths for when Cook plays origin, Mamozelos is our 2nd choice hooker.

Bethany_B wrote:

Both our back rowers are confirmed leaving to the Dolphins in 2023, and Howarth has re-signed for a 5-year $500k a year deal.

TLDR: the kid's a fucking gun and I think it's highly likely he's got one of the starting spots by the end of this year, all it will take is an injury or suspension and he'll do well enough to keep the spot.

Bellamy is trying to win a comp. He isn't dropping proven rep players like Kaufusi and KBrom for an untested 19 year old

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:The discussion about HOK was yesterday with interesting. Currently, I have Grant and Randall, and I have gone cold on Cotter. It is just too hard to know whether we will play enough minutes to be worthwhile.

Another player that falls a little bit into that category but perhaps with a bigger upside is Brandon Smith. Assuming he gets the same or even a little more than the 65 minutes Finucane took at LOCK last year, he could average around 60?? or is that too optimistic?

DPP MID/HOK and priced at 678k for a potential season keeper. Do both Grant and Smith improve this year with ore positional certainty?

I think Smith scores better at hooker. I watched him closely all last season as he was in my team the whole year. Every play he either looks tired or hurt! Im just glad he scored all those tries last year.
I dont think he is fantasy relevant this year, put him in your black book for next year

Bethany_B wrote:

Both our back rowers are confirmed leaving to the Dolphins in 2023, and Howarth has re-signed for a 5-year $500k a year deal.

TLDR: the kid's a fucking gun and I think it's highly likely he's got one of the starting spots by the end of this year, all it will take is an injury or suspension and he'll do well enough to keep the spot.

I liked this - TLDR summary was longer than than the TLDR part.

I had Wade Graham last season and was mocked for it. But there was clear value due to price discount from concussions and playing around Origin byes. He then got a bunch of further concussions so it didn’t end well.

I might get Wade Graham again this season - same reasons, more obvious risk

At this point I’m wondering whether myself or Wade has the bigger career threatening brain injury. I have had at least three concussions tbf, and far more interesting ones than “head in wrong position in tackle”.