NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

The Bludger#2 wrote:My current iteration of the Bludgers includes 5 players who have centre as DPP, not including Jax Paulo who we are all assuming will be granted the valuable DPP WFB/Centre from round 1. 
When I think about the poop-shooting hole of a position centre has been over the past few years, I am seriously considering burning said team set-up to the ground and starting afresh.
There couldn't possibly be that much value in the centres this year, could there?

There might be, but given I haven't really had a serious crack at putting a team together I remain sceptical (maybe without justification).

From what's on here I'm thinking it's Burton, Bird, Aitken and a bunch of dudes who haven't cemented a first grade spot yet.

I suspect that Aitken is in danger of shifting around a bit, Burton should work out fine (maybe even at half), Bird starting at 2nd row is good for centre (but they do have a few forwards kicking around the club including a bunch of guys who got significant game time last year) and it's wait and see on the rest of those munters.

If they all get a run then load up on the guys with DPP.

Chewie wrote:

#IStandWithCookie #equalityforall

muppet
/ˈmʌpɪt/

noun INFORMAL• BRITISH
an incompetent or foolish person.

Muppets do not have inalienable human rights! While I agree this is an injustice that should be addressed; clearly, intelligent, sentient, dolphins should get them well before other incompetent and foolish non-humans https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/feb/21/whales-dolphins-legal-rights

my tv broke wrote:

almost certain i would not have said this as

1 - dont pick warriors players  
2 - i dont think he is very good at football  
3 - below average looks  

Lol apologies, I think I thought you were someone else also.

On Aitken, is moving around a disaster? If he moves to centre he still has a career avg of 42 in 70+ min games (currently priced at 43). The way I see it best case you're paying for an underpriced EDG who can slot in at CTR, worst case you get an appropriately priced gun CTR (annoying but not urgent sell territory).

Really really worst case he avgs 33 at centre again like last year and is a sell, but forget that.

if Aitken was going to get a month+ at EDG, he'd probably be good still.

His edge average is massively over inflated by tries, but his workload is good enough he should still be value. He is not an exciting NRL player, but all he needs to do is tackle and run a bit in order to be a good fantasy buy.

Its the return of Tohu and what that means to his role in the team that is the concern. Its a bit of a risk to assume that he'll continue to be the high workload forward he was at the end of last year

On Aitken, if he ends up moving around, I would rather pick an inappropriately priced CTR or an underpriced 2RF who is going to be able to slot in at MID but don't get me wrong I am prepared to be a massive hypocrite on anything and everything I opine on here

I'm waiting for a bit more intel from trials and more importantly TLT before pinning my hopes on any hypothetical scenario although it's nice to dream.

I have updated my team tracker* if anyone wants to take a look

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:
clearly, intelligent, sentient, dolphins should get them well before other incompetent and foolish non-humans

Thanks for all the Fish, Bro

Broncos posted their teamlist but tbh it would be foolish to try and read anything into.. any of it

The Bludger#2 wrote:My current iteration of the Bludgers includes 5 players who have centre as DPP, not including Jax Paulo who we are all assuming will be granted the valuable DPP WFB/Centre from round 1. 
When I think about the poop-shooting hole of a position centre has been over the past few years, I am seriously considering burning said team set-up to the ground and starting afresh.
There couldn't possibly be that much value in the centres this year, could there?

I have the same number, including Kei / Tupou if one of them gets the role in emergencies.

Some analysis of value available at CTR and EDG.

Potential value in CTR:

CTR Keeper - Burton (HLF)

<$370k
Kei / Tupou - ideal for EMG at $220k
Penisini
Paulo (WFB) - if he starts round 1 at CTR
May
Crichton (WFB)
Suaalii (WFB)
Berry (WFB)
Cotric (WFB)

Potential value Dual CTR/EDG:
CTR Keeper - Bird (EDG)
Aitken (EDG) (Maybe a Keeper, only if all season at EDG)

<$370k
Tago (EDG)

Potential value EDG
EDG Keeper potential - TPJ (MID)

$370k - $550k potential value EDG - Means paying a lot that you cant use elsewhere and arent getting a Keeper at this price point
Capewell
Martin
Graham - significant risk if he has another HIA
Fermor
Gilbert (MID)
Luki - If he gets starting EDG
*RFM - sounds like he misses a couple of rounds and may be eased back in. Chance that he doesnt recover from injury
Lawton (HOK) - if he gets starting EDG

<$370k EDG value
Bullemor (MID) - If he gets starting EDG
Nanai - If he gets starting EDG
Davey - If he gets starting EDG or benched in EMG

There is a lot of uncertainty around cheaper EDG players. You are generally having to go to within $80k of Bird and Aitken to get a non-dual who should keep his spot, but won't be a Keeper (and likely minimal upside for Capewell, Martin, Fermor). Gilbert stands out, as a dual MID with significant upside, as would Bullemor if starting EDG, but I would be playing both at MID in probably the hardest position to fill with playable value.

Lots of good value options at CTR < $370k, including a number that can be played at EDG and WFB. When most are short on cash after paying for Cleary, reduced cap and trying to have some kind of depth it is much easier to move one of Tago / Aitken / Bird into slots 14-17 and potentially another one in starting EDG, to get a keeper and still pick up of lots of the value offered at CTR, especially when so many of them are also Duals, which will be really important for depth cover this year.

I think one of the up and coming < $370k CTRs will prove to be the next Best / Ramien / Manu / Staggs / Lomax that can hit a 45+ average this season, you won't want to miss them, but I can't tell you yet who it will be. If I had to rank them by most likely, I would say:
1. Tago - could end up starting EDG if Martin or Kikau get suspended or injured
2. Paulo - Left center for Souths, sky is the limit. Gagai averaged 49 there last year.
3. Suaalii - Morris was averaging 62 on that wing last season
4. Penisini - In limited games appears to have a decent floor without a try.

my tv broke wrote:Broncos posted their teamlist but tbh it would be foolish to try and read anything into.. any of it

At least they named a team and didn't just use the cop out of "alphabetical order"

Savage named to start with cnk on bench in trial.

Not that it means anything.

mattnz wrote:
3. Suaalii - Morris was averaging 62 on that wing last season

Morris scored 11 tries in 7 games to get that average. He averaged ~40 the year before.

40 would still be a great average for Suaalii and you'd take it in a heartbeat if you thought it was likely. But if you'll pick up Suaalii because Morris scored well in that position, then you'll be getting Xavier Coates as well.

Fortitude wrote:Savage named to start with cnk on bench in trial.

Not that it means anything.

It's going to end with CNK having lust in his eyes when he looks at the FB position.

@ mattnz excellent post very helpful thanks bro.

The only worry I have re Suaalii in 2021 was he seemed timid & did not get involved by doing the hard yards out of his half so he's a wait & see for me. Also they hit Tupou's edge predominantly in attack esp. with Keary back & Tedesco sweeping.

Matt's Analysis:

Thanks for that, great post, as I said I am prepared to be a massive hypocrite on any previously held opinions  

Haven't seen how it shakes out with choosing Cleary but ideally leaves a little wriggle room to balance the portfolio

Warriors squad looks full strength, with few exceptions
- SJ coming back from serious injury - Kodi vs Ash battle for 6
- Curran (HIA)
- Pompey missing and DWZ at CTR is interesting, with Arthars on the wing. Might be how they line up round 2
- Otukolo could be one to watch, Egan not listed in the team and not on the injured list.
- Afoa starting over Sironen at lock is a surprise


Warriors squad: 1. Reece Walsh. 2. Jesse Arthars. 3. Rocco Berry. 4. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak. 5. Marcelo Montoya. 6. Kodi Nikorima. 7. Ash Taylor. 8. Addin Fonua-Blake. 9. Taniela Otukolo. 10. Matt Lodge. 11. Euan Aitken. 12. Eliesa Katoa. 13. Bunty Afoa. Interchange: 14. Jazz Tevaga. 15. Otukinekina-He-Tofonga Kepu. 16. Peesi Kepu. 17. Chanel Harris-Tavita. 18. Bayley Sironen. 20. Pride Patterson-Robati. 21. Garrett Smith. 22. Adam Cook. 23. Jayden Corrigan. 24. Viliami Vailea. 25. Edward Kosi.

StuDogg101 wrote:



Haha thanks! She is, indeed, destined for greatness. I had to veto Murphy Su'a II as the name for obvious reasons

Congratulations StuDogg. 

Is there anything SI doesn't know?

mattnz wrote:Warriors squad looks full strength, with few exceptions
- SJ coming back from serious injury - Kodi vs Ash battle for 6
- Curran (HIA)
- Pompey missing and DWZ at CTR is interesting, with Arthars on the wing. Might be how they line up round 2
- Otukolo could be one to watch, Egan not listed in the team and not on the injured list.
- Afoa starting over Sironen at lock is a surprise


Warriors squad: 1. Reece Walsh. 2. Jesse Arthars. 3. Rocco Berry. 4. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak. 5. Marcelo Montoya. 6. Kodi Nikorima. 7. Ash Taylor. 8. Addin Fonua-Blake. 9. Taniela Otukolo. 10. Matt Lodge. 11. Euan Aitken. 12. Eliesa Katoa. 13. Bunty Afoa. Interchange: 14. Jazz Tevaga. 15. Otukinekina-He-Tofonga Kepu. 16. Peesi Kepu. 17. Chanel Harris-Tavita. 18. Bayley Sironen. 20. Pride Patterson-Robati. 21. Garrett Smith. 22. Adam Cook. 23. Jayden Corrigan. 24. Viliami Vailea. 25. Edward Kosi.

Walsh is suspended for 2 weeks, so someone else will be fullback to start (NZ Herald suggested Nikorima)

Moanaman wrote:

Thanks for all the Fish, Bro

and, So long...

Goodbye: