NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average

Fortitude wrote:

Fixed

Matt, it's your fault.

sajjos wrote:

I almost fell for the "big minutes" Paulo talk last year. This year he is the captain so might finally get consistent 50+ minutes so may be 5-6 points undervalued.

dual Captain with Gutherson - unlikely to affect minutes too much

sajjos wrote:

Matt, it's your fault.  

I would say that the fault is your own expectations of them being 5-0.

mrbrownstone wrote:Is Berry even guaranteed a spot? He'll probably be there round 1, but when Walsh is back I wouldn't be shocked to see:

1. Walsh
2. DWZ
3. Arthars
4. Pompey
5. Montoya

Also the risk of Aitken moving back to CTR and pushing Berry out when Tohu returns.

Berry is the future at centre for the Warriors, and had some good games last year. He's also better than Pompey.

Arthas is on loan for a year.

sajjos wrote:

I almost fell for the "big minutes" Paulo talk last year. This year he is the captain so might finally get consistent 50+ minutes so may be 5-6 points undervalued.

Ha ha I did fall for the big minute talk last year. Thankfully he score a try in his first two games to save his scores. I pretty quickly upgraded him to Tohu.

When on the field he seemed to pace himself to play big minutes rather than getting stuck in

Regulator wrote:

Berry is the future at centre for the Warriors, and had some good games last year. He's also better than Pompey.

Arthas is on loan for a year.

I think he probably starts the year at centre, but I wouldn't be at all shocked if there's reshuffles if/when we lose a few early. Arthars in, Aitken back to CTR, or even Montoya to CTR and Kosi/Ratuva on the wing are all possible threats.

Just doesn't tick many boxes for me. Maybe 2 points of value based on last year's avg in 80 min games (before accounting for TB reduction), in a bottom 8 team, and with average job security at best. Paulo, Tago look far more appealing for dual in that range imo.

Can see why you'd go there too - dual, potential improvement in his second year, and a good early Warriors draw, but not for me.

Talking league podcast with hook just dropped and he mentions bird starting in the forwards looking to give him the opportunity to play long minutes in the middle

mintotheimmortal wrote:Talking league podcast with hook just dropped and he mentions bird starting in the forwards looking to give him the opportunity to play long minutes in the middle

Love that he is getting head coaches on the show.

If Peachey starts at lock is he a better option than Utoi...he is cheaper & has upside dpp

White Lightning wrote:If Peachey starts at lock is he a better option than Utoi...he is cheaper & has upside dpp

Hasn't Madge come out and talked about Peacheys utility value.
At least with Uto you know what his role will be each week

mrbrownstone wrote:

I think he probably starts the year at centre, but I wouldn't be at all shocked if there's reshuffles if/when we lose a few early. Arthars in, Aitken back to CTR, or even Montoya to CTR and Kosi/Ratuva on the wing are all possible threats.

Just doesn't tick many boxes for me. Maybe 2 points of value based on last year's avg in 80 min games (before accounting for TB reduction), in a bottom 8 team, and with average job security at best. Paulo, Tago look far more appealing for dual in that range imo.

Can see why you'd go there too - dual, potential improvement in his second year, and a good early Warriors draw, but not for me.

I've got pretty much no interest from a fantasy perspective, seems weird to me that I've seen him in so many teams. I just wouldn't be worried about his place in the team.

Do hope Ratuva gets a run sooner rather than later.

White Lightning wrote:If Peachey starts at lock is he a better option than Utoi...he is cheaper & has upside dpp

Would rather Mann if he starts with same DPP as Peachey

Regulator wrote:

I've got pretty much no interest from a fantasy perspective, seems weird to me that I've seen him in so many teams. I just wouldn't be worried about his place in the team.

Do hope Ratuva gets a run sooner rather than later.

Yeah fair enough. I think Berry looks a decent player and hope he gets a consistent run, just wouldn't be shocked if a 20-year-old with 8 first grade games to his name gets shuffled around a bit when we start losing.

White Lightning wrote:If Peachey starts at lock is he a better option than Utoi...he is cheaper & has upside dpp

You reckon Peachey averages 50s? Even with a more consistent role but in a worse team I can't really see where he gets 10 points from. Slightly undervalued sure but I'd definitely still lean Uto at this point

mintotheimmortal wrote:Talking league podcast with hook just dropped and he mentions bird starting in the forwards looking to give him the opportunity to play long minutes in the middle

Nice pick-up. Bird has not left my drafts yet and if this hold true will not for R1

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

Nice pick-up. Bird has not left my drafts yet and if this hold true will not for R1

He was in my original draft but eventually leant towards aitken and burton. Now shuffling things around to have all 3 of them

Problem with Bird is dragons also have De Belin and McGuire who are also capable of playing big minutes at lock.

Will Bird definitely have a secure starting spot long term?

Milchcow wrote:
Problem with Bird is dragons also have De Belin and McGuire who are also capable of playing big minutes at lock.

Will Bird definitely have a secure starting spot long term?

Obviously no guarantee but the wording from hook seems to indicate that big minutes for bird are in their plans at the moment

my tv broke wrote:

Paulo seems the obvious choice of the lot to me. Almost too obvious.

His stats look muck so I dismissed. Guess we could hope for some improvement @ CTR.

mattnz wrote:

Just 3 important things you have missed about Berry:
1. Playing right center outside SJ
2. Easiest draw for the first 5 rounds in the comp
3. In QLD Cup last year he averaged 57 points, with 4 tries and 2 assists in 3 games. I hate it when my centers are that bad on attack.

I ain't picking a dude off 3 QLD cup games and ignoring everything else.