NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 3 - Max or Josh?

Holy Moly wrote:

Why don't you like Ilias? And why more confidence in Amone and Clune?

Amone in a limited sample size of 3 games has averaged 47 at 6.
His lowest score was 5 points more than he is currently priced at.
He has a 71 without a try or try assist. Indicates that on his day, he can go huge. You don't want to miss a $350k guy that can score 90+.

Clune at halfback last season averaged 40, with less than 200km. He will split the kicking game with Clifford and lots of ball went his way on attack in the trials.

Ilias is going to be the junior half. I see him being similar to picking Lam last season, where Walker is going to have all the good ball. The last half of last season Walker was switching sides, attacking both left and right, why he got so many try assists the 2nd half of the season, (I watched all the highlights from last year to confirm that he was playing a different role when killing it the 2nd half of the season).

In his only game in first grade Ilias scored 31 points including a try, with 5 missed tackles.

Has averaged 22 fantasy points in NSW cup, including 2 goal kicks per game, taking his actual average down to 18.

Illias could easily be a dud, having never stepped up at either NSW Cup or NRL level, while both Clune and Amone have shown they should be at least 10 points undervalued in the NRL.

mattnz wrote:
Amone in a limited sample size of 3 games has averaged 47 at 6.
His lowest score was 5 points more than he is currently priced at.
He has a 71 without a try or try assist. Indicates that on his day, he can go huge. You don't want to miss a $350k guy that can score 90+.

Clune at halfback last season averaged 40, with less than 200km. He will split the kicking game with Clifford and lots of ball went his way on attack in the trials.

Ilias is going to be the junior half. I see him being similar to picking Lam last season, where Walker is going to have all the good ball. The last half of last season Walker was switching sides, attacking both left and right, why he got so many try assists the 2nd half of the season, (I watched all the highlights from last year to confirm that he was playing a different role when killing it the 2nd half of the season).

In his only game in first grade Ilias scored 31 points including a try, with 5 missed tackles.

Has averaged 22 fantasy points in NSW cup, including 2 goal kicks per game, taking his actual average down to 18.

Illias could easily be a dud, having never stepped up at either NSW Cup or NRL level, while both Clune and Amone have shown they should be at least 10 points undervalued in the NRL.

Makes a lot of sense. Thanks.

Milchcow wrote:

That is 47 under old scoring. Drops to about 40 under the new system

Which is one 60+ monster and a couple of low 30s.

Still above what he is priced at, and he is cheap, so definitely worthy of consideration. but value will come down to how often he can repeat the monster scores.

Related note: the more I look at things, the more I hate 4 point turnover tackles. They are so random that you can't easily use them to determine team selection, yet getting more than 1 in a game can quickly get your fantasy score tickign over.
Amone's score of 71 had 2 of them. Hynes in the All-star game had 3 or 4. Pretty much anytime a guy who doesn't normally go massive has a big fantasy score, its because they've got a couple of turnover tackles.
It needed nerfing before tackle breaks did.

Under new scoring and without the try, Ilias would have scored 20 in his only NRL game, to go with the 18 average in NSW Cup (17 under the new kicking meter nerfs), priced at 24.

mattnz wrote:

Has averaged 22 fantasy points in NSW cup, including 2 goal kicks per game, taking his actual average down to 18.

Sample size of 2 with a 75km average is the important disclaimer here, he was 2nd fiddle to Hawkins who did all the kicking

Unless you think Cody Walker is taking all the kick metres as well (which would make him an auto pick) which we should find out the answer to tonight, I would expect Ilias to largely improve on that

Lchy wrote:

Sample size of 2 with a 75km average is the important disclaimer here, he was 2nd fiddle to Hawkins who did all the kicking

Unless you think Cody Walker is taking all the kick metres as well (which would make him an auto pick) which we should find out the answer to tonight, I would expect Ilias to largely improve on that

Cody has a good kicking game. He should see a significant increase on his kicking meters from last year. He is in my team already.

mattnz wrote:
Cody has a good kicking game. He should see a significant increase on his kicking meters from last year. He is in my team already.

I’m talking bulk kick metres though, from what I’ve seen souths seem to prefer Ilias as 7 because he’s a traditional halfback type. If they wanted a 2nd fiddle guy they would’ve picked Taaffe no?

Lchy wrote:

I’m talking bulk kick metres though, from what I’ve seen souths seem to prefer Ilias as 7 because he’s a traditional halfback type. If they wanted a 2nd fiddle guy they would’ve picked Taaffe no?

Last season with Reynolds playing Walker averaged 115 km, in the last 4 games next to Reynolds he averaged 238 km. I am expecting him to be up around the 250-300 range this season next to the junior half instead of Reynolds.

Picking non-dominant halves in shit teams off sample sizes that are basically irrelevant is sure to go well

Weather to start the season will probably be unfavourable

Obviously haven’t seen Clifford and Clune together, but from what I’ve seen of them apart (including a fair bit of Clune in NSW Cup), I don’t think it’s going to be a close to even kicking share. I reckon 40 avg is a ceiling for Clune.

I liked Ilias due to job security but will have to see what he does tonight. But pretty rare for a number 7 to not outscore 24. Even Lam last year had a low score of 28 at 5/8 with Keary doing everything.

Amone is pretty raw. Big score had 2 FTOs. Lots of errors in other two games. I’d actually expect Hunt to be a winner from it, he’s going to be carrying this team and kicking a long and often. Id back him to be a top 3 fantasy half this year

my tv broke wrote:

Weather to start the season will probably be unfavourable

Interesting point. I would be avoiding Teddy and Edwards to start the season. Neither seem to handle the wet particularly well.

mattnz wrote:
Last season with Reynolds playing Walker averaged 115 km, in the last 4 games next to Reynolds he averaged 238 km..

* including the roosters game where Reynolds went off after 30 minutes, finals reverted back to normal (with the exception of the prelim where Reynolds had the groin injury)

Cody definitely gets more involvement but there probably isn’t a world where he takes majority of the kicking, when they picked his halves partner for his kicking game

Milchcow wrote:

Have you ever heard of Kane Elgey.

Multiple single digit scores in 80 minutes.

Ilias could well match that. You don't get magic points just for being a halfback. You still need to make tackles, kick the ball and get some attacking stats .

I'd be confident Ilias won't miss 5 tackles every week, but he still needs to get some more points from somewhere

Pointing out one half that scored really poorly seems to support my point that it’s pretty rare to do so?

On balance makes the gamble on a cheap half worth it. Especially as nearly all cheap players come with risks. And if (like I also wrote) his selection is based on further assessing his performance in a fairly competitive trial tonight.

But it good to be reminded that you get fantasy points for doing stuff rather than, uh, magic

mattnz wrote:
Last season with Reynolds playing Walker averaged 115 km, in the last 4 games next to Reynolds he averaged 238 km. I am expecting him to be up around the 250-300 range this season next to the junior half instead of Reynolds.

Reynolds came in as a rookie and kicked the piss out of the ball every week. Just because Ilias is the rookie doesn’t automatically mean he won’t be the bulk general field kicker.

Milchcow wrote:

Have you ever heard of Kane Elgey.

Multiple single digit scores in 80 minutes.

Ilias could well match that. You don't get magic points just for being a halfback. You still need to make tackles, kick the ball and get some attacking stats .

I'd be confident Ilias won't miss 5 tackles every week, but he still needs to get some more points from somewhere

Halves have the easiest access to points out of any position in the game

Yes you have the odd few who are outliers, but at near base they are usually always gold

Milchcow wrote:

Have you ever heard of Kane Elgey.

Multiple single digit scores in 80 minutes.

Ilias could well match that. You don't get magic points just for being a halfback. You still need to make tackles, kick the ball and get some attacking stats .

I'd be confident Ilias won't miss 5 tackles every week, but he still needs to get some more points from somewhere

But on the other hand, look at Trindall last year after SJ went down.

Welshy wrote:
Reynolds came in as a rookie and kicked the piss out of the ball every week. Just because Ilias is the rookie doesn’t automatically mean he won’t be the bulk general field kicker.

This. My gut feel is that ilias will do most of the general field kicking. Doesnt mean his scores will be great, but i just dont think cody is suddenlt going to be a controlling half. We will see how tonight plays out i guess

Milchcow wrote:

Have you ever heard of Kane Elgey.

Multiple single digit scores in 80 minutes.

Ilias could well match that. You don't get magic points just for being a halfback. You still need to make tackles, kick the ball and get some attacking stats .

I'd be confident Ilias won't miss 5 tackles every week, but he still needs to get some more points from somewhere

Reynolds averaged 0.3 Try Assists last season, compared with Walker's 1.6. I wouldn't expect the points to be coming from there for Ilias.

Cody won't be dramatically expected to change his game up and add general play kicking, that's counter productive. They are bringing someone in to compliment Cody and he'll definitely do most of the general kicking in play. The kid needs to find his place and shifting all the responsibility on Cody would just be silly and detrimental to both of them. Cody still needs to focus on his strengths as a ball player, making him kick most of the time won't help his natural game and will only hurt it.