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    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 5 - RIP Shane Warne

    ShadowSabre
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    Post by ShadowSabre Mon Mar 07, 2022 10:21 am

    On the Burton front - with near on 30% ownership, if he does start strong and kill it, it could be really hard to recover from that. Lot's will avoid picking him on principle and that could be season ending.
    On the other hand if you avoid the majority and he stinks it up, then you have a massive leg up.

    Damn, writing this up and I am still no closer to whether I pick him or not...
    Liverpool_Bulldog
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Mon Mar 07, 2022 10:24 am

    Honey Badger wrote:

    There is potential these three players struggle to score 50 points all together in a week if the dont get any attacking stats.

    They'll also take too long to make enough money to upgrade to anyone useful so you'll end up downgrading one of your forwards to strengthen your wfb.

    Im hoping the teams that they play for help to elevate them to a decent enough level.

    It’s kind of why I didn’t go for a combo like Young, To’a, Taulagi.
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Mon Mar 07, 2022 10:32 am

    ShadowSabre wrote:On the Burton front - with near on 30% ownership, if he does start strong and kill it, it could be really hard to recover from that. Lot's will avoid picking him on principle and that could be season ending.
    On the other hand if you avoid the majority and he stinks it up, then you have a massive leg up.

    Damn, writing this up and I am still no closer to whether I pick him or not...

    Look at his schedule and judge him after his first two months not his first two games. He's not going to be the reincarnation of Cleary - he's playing for the Dogs in a team of strangers. Imo he might well score high in round one and two and still be below starting price after round 8.

    But if you don't start with him, stay strong if he kills it in the first two games. Buy the dip. (Talking to myself, here.)


    Last edited by rhinoceroo on Mon Mar 07, 2022 10:37 am; edited 1 time in total
    Revraiser
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    Post by Revraiser Mon Mar 07, 2022 10:32 am

    Rabbits21 wrote:
    I don’t see Lolo avg 65. I think he gets around 58-59mins.

    This is ridiculous, it will clearly be more like 60.30
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Mon Mar 07, 2022 10:33 am

    ShadowSabre wrote:On the Burton front - with near on 30% ownership, if he does start strong and kill it, it could be really hard to recover from that. Lot's will avoid picking him on principle and that could be season ending.
    On the other hand if you avoid the majority and he stinks it up, then you have a massive leg up.

    Damn, writing this up and I am still no closer to whether I pick him or not...

    season ending is a bit of an overstatement Rolling Eyes
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Mon Mar 07, 2022 10:35 am

    ShadowSabre wrote:On the Burton front - with near on 30% ownership, if he does start strong and kill it, it could be really hard to recover from that. Lot's will avoid picking him on principle and that could be season ending.
    On the other hand if you avoid the majority and he stinks it up, then you have a massive leg up.

    Damn, writing this up and I am still no closer to whether I pick him or not...

    Just remember 30% ownership is 70% non ownership. Someone like Burton I don't think would skew heavily to the serious players either

    Just get the players you think will go well and ignore what others do. Just be prepared to adjust if you've got it wrong

    Could just as easily be everyone scrambling to get Bird or Aitken in and Burton out as the other way around.
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    Post by Guest Mon Mar 07, 2022 10:43 am

    Rabbits21 wrote:
    Is he in your team?

    I haven't made a team for myself yet. Only one for the community team.

    Edit: 50mins a game for uto is my mins prediction.


    Last edited by WT2K on Mon Mar 07, 2022 11:26 am; edited 2 times in total
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    Post by Chewie Mon Mar 07, 2022 10:43 am

    Also if Burton is a failure there are at least 10+ other potential fantasy relevant CTRs to pick from this season
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    Post by Guest Mon Mar 07, 2022 10:46 am

    Revraiser wrote:

    This is ridiculous, it will clearly be more like 60.30

    Oh look who it is! Good to see you back for another year, Rev.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Mon Mar 07, 2022 10:51 am


    My biggest worry at the moment is whether the new Vlandys rules are going to impact scoring too much.

    If the 6-agains coming out of a teams own 20m zone become penalties, how much will this
    - reduce kick metres
    - slow down the game in general

    Last year broke all sorts of records for fantasy scoring, which I don't think will be repeated this year.
    The issue I am grappling with is whether this will effect players roughly equally, or whether some will hurt more than others.
    Its the one thing that makes me doubt Cleary. The reduction in kicking points has been priced in, so I don't care too much about that. But if he is also kicking less because of penalties getting teams further down the field before they kick, then that is something that matters. He'll still be involved in heaps of Panthers tries, and he'll still be a junk time specialist. But would a reduction in overall points hurt Cleary any more than say DCE, or Fifita, or whatever other captain option you have?
    Revraiser
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    Post by Revraiser Mon Mar 07, 2022 10:53 am

    mattnz wrote:

    Can't get ahead when all the correct moves you make get injured for weeks in a row.


    This will get me through the whole year.
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Mon Mar 07, 2022 10:54 am

    Revraiser wrote:


    This will get me through the whole year.

    😂😂
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Mon Mar 07, 2022 11:09 am

    mattnz wrote:

    It looks like Twal was injured R16, playing 30 mins, and therefore missed round 17 as well, returning from injury off the bench in round 18. Was missing again in round 19.

    Uto only got big minutes when one of Twal or Tamou was either injured mid-game, or missing due to injury. He is their backup guy that can play big minutes if required when key players aren't available.

    Yeah I reckon you’re being pretty selective here. Twal played a lot of low minute and bench games earlier in the season when he wasn’t injured as well. Tamou not a competitor for minutes at all IMO. Maybe Uto gained 10-15 at most in R21 from Tamou not returning, but Tamou also played 25-40 mins a lot.

    Could still not be worth it, but it’s a thin field at MID. allowing for starting the year with a Haas or iPap where you don’t necessarily need to chase value, what other 3-4 mids are clearly better options? Can think of a couple, maybe
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    Post by Milchcow Mon Mar 07, 2022 11:14 am


    Uto could end up a bit of a coin goat. trickling in small price rises but not being crap enough to dump.

    But he is a fair bit cheaper than most of his competition.

    Welch and Paulo are about the same price, but I don't think they look any better than Uto does as an option.

    To go to the next level, Lolo is $63k more. Guns like Crichton and Haas are over $200k more so if struggling for cash he just becomes a tempting option to avoid relying on cheapies like Fifita/Mann/King etc
    TheWeapon
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    Post by TheWeapon Mon Mar 07, 2022 11:26 am

    Milchcow wrote:

    Just remember 30% ownership is 70% non ownership. Someone like Burton I don't think would skew heavily to the serious players either

    Just get the players you think will go well and ignore what others do. Just be prepared to adjust if you've got it wrong

    Could just as easily be everyone scrambling to get Bird or Aitken in and Burton out as the other way around.

    Also keep in mind that last year's winner didn't have Cleary until rd 4...
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Mon Mar 07, 2022 11:32 am

    I think I’ll almost certainly start with one of Burton, Aitken or Bird
    On job security I think Burton is the least likely to be moved to another position even if there are issues early days. Bird I’d put in the middle for job security with Dragons having 3 rep quality edge options with Sims and Su’a. Lomax and Suli can also do a job at centre. Aitken I think is the least secure of the 3 long term but good short term security until Tohu comes back.

    Dogs last year were 4 wins worse than second last team and I don’t think they will be that bad this year. Dogs biggest problem last year was lack of creativity and point scoring which they now have. I don’t think they make the top 8 but I also don’t think they run last by 4 wins so not worried about Burton’s scoring ability. I think worst case scenario Burton averages 45 as a keeper centre with less volatility than traditional gun centres. Upside I could see him getting in the 55-60 range with similar scoring profile to Moses
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Mon Mar 07, 2022 11:32 am

    The list of MIDs 550k-600k who could be of fantasy interest is, other than Kurt Mann when he gets DPP, the same as the list of MIDs 350k-600k who could be of fantasy interest. And below that it's only Bullemor and the benchies. It's what's making it such a tricky position this year.

    That list is Arrow, Stefano, Radley, Paulo, Tapine, Welsh.
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Mon Mar 07, 2022 11:36 am

    Milchcow wrote:
    Uto could end up a bit of a coin goat. trickling in small price rises but not being crap enough to dump.

    But he is a fair bit cheaper than most of his competition.

    Welch and Paulo are about the same price, but I don't think they look any better than Uto does as an option.

    To go to the next level, Lolo is $63k more. Guns like Crichton and Haas are over $200k more so if struggling for cash he just becomes a tempting option to avoid relying on cheapies like Fifita/Mann/King etc

    Lolo has plenty of potential to revert back to pre-2021 scoring, he's one to keep an eye on the early rounds.
    He plays the first bye so he could be a good pick-up at a discount
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    Post by Aardvark Mon Mar 07, 2022 11:38 am

    ShadowSabre wrote:On the Burton front - with near on 30% ownership, if he does start strong and kill it, it could be really hard to recover from that. Lot's will avoid picking him on principle and that could be season ending.
    On the other hand if you avoid the majority and he stinks it up, then you have a massive leg up.

    Damn, writing this up and I am still no closer to whether I pick him or not...

    Nah...even if I don't pick him on principle I'm not too proud to grab him early doors. I don't think it's season ending unless

    a) Your alternate pick stinks it up and haemorrhages cash &/or
    b) You refuse to concede like a few of the Clearly hold outs last year
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Mon Mar 07, 2022 11:39 am

    @MTB would you be able to update the Bye schedule on footystatistics please?
    I think it still has the 2021 fixtures

      Current date/time is Fri Nov 22, 2024 11:52 pm