Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 32 - My Shitto and your Shitto were sitting by the fire....

Doesn't Ricky only play his rookie forwards in limited minutes? Like 15-35 tops? Rushton's only 20 and played one ESL game, so would be surprised if he got decent minutes and stuck around long enough to make cash. Tough opposition first up too with Panthers, not a team you'd want to expose him too much to.

mattnz wrote:
Cleary's return has meant they aren't so dominant going left.

Not really. They're still left-oriented for their major plays, they've just
narrowly bombed a few in the last couple of weeks that could easily have put +20 on May and Tago's scores, which in any case haven't been exactly bad.

For a cheap WFB just get Nofo. Looks like Tigers on the up so should get 50 minimum every week now

Chucky wrote:Elliott Whitehead having plastic surgery on his mouth and needs to have his teeth re aligned.
This does not sound very pleasant at all, poor bugger.
You’d think he misses at least a few weeks and this could increase the chances of Harry Rushton hanging around.

Whitehead still listed as starting. Young 18th man. Rushton has replaced Guler on the bench who got 21 mins last game. Rushton is an avoid this week unless something dramatic happens final team list

ShadowSabre wrote:I honestly can't believe what  I have been reading these last few pages.
Selling the highest equal averaging WFB who has pedigree and who already cracked the hundy this year for a guy in an unheard, for him, hot streak on the wing and who has historical averages in the 30s has to be the definition of madness and senseless trading.
If you are considering this trade, take some time to really think it through and look at stats over more than 3/4 rounds. Otherwise there will be tears when the inevitable 10-25 score pops up

Papy will also score in that range and costs $130k more.

The litmus test of whether a player realistically has a chance to improve on previous scoring is whether their circumstances and role have changed significantly.

For Mulitalo they have:
- he is playing outside an unselfish dominant CTR that is going out of his way to set him up;
- on the dominant side of a team;
- that is scoring lots of points.

This Sharks side is far better than those he was playing in before this season.

There is no reason he couldn't get as many tries as someone like AJ last season (30 in 22 games) in that scenario. He is scoring at just 1 try per game so far to average 63. Talakai is playing like Latrell does, with a quick pass when they rush up on him. The big difference is that Mulitalo scores much better than AJ does when he is scoring tries.

Finch wrote:For a cheap WFB just get Nofo. Looks like Tigers on the up so should get 50 minimum every week now

We have different definitions of cheap

Damn it feels good to have torn my team apart and ruined my cash flow over the last 2 weeks to get Hynes and Cleary. I think. Not sure where the next gun is coming from. Might be playing middies bingo for awhile.

It looks like Hudson comes in for sure now does it. Seems more to it than just being a toe injury as he played lower grades anyway

Feels like this year has already been defined by teams that own Tago/May doing well and teams that don’t like mine doing badly. 

Oh well dumpster diving for me most of the year with my lack of cash

mattnz wrote:

Papy will also score in that range and costs $130k more.

The litmus test of whether a player realistically has a chance to improve on previous scoring is whether their circumstances and role have changed significantly.

For Mulitalo they have:
- he is playing outside an unselfish dominant CTR that is going out of his way to set him up;
- on the dominant side of a team;
- that is scoring lots of points.

This Sharks side is far better than those he was playing in before this season.

There is no reason he couldn't get as many tries as someone like AJ last season (30 in 22 games) in that scenario. He is scoring at just 1 try per game so far to average 63. Talakai is playing like Latrell does, with a quick pass when they rush up on him. The big difference is that Mulitalo scores much better than AJ does when he is scoring tries.

If we're honest, it's a little bit flights of fancy isn't it.

I mean yeah, I get it IF Mulitalo was priced at 30 maybe.
But he's already priced at 42, so what you reckon he goes on to average over 50? - it'd have to be 50+ to be worth the risk...

The history of NRL Fantasy is largely devoid of out & out wingers who go on to average 50 over the course of a season - yeah, it could happen, but the odds aren't in his favour.
And if it turns out that the maybe 10% chance that he does average over 50, then everyone will jump on for fairly minor cost (probably under $100k) without having had to carry the risk.

Strikes me as a high risk low reward play and that you might just be in love with the fairytale.

mattnz wrote:
There is no reason he couldn't get as many tries as someone like AJ last season (30 in 22 games) in that scenario.

The main reason Mulitalo couldn't get as many tries as AJ last season is because 2021 was an outlier thanks to V'Landys Ball (2020-2021 RIP)

AJ and Turbo (28 in 18) scored tries at rates not seen since the early 1950s, or junior rugby league competitions. Another 5-10 scoring around a try per game, where there's usually only 2-3.

Your Mulitalo projections are ridiculously bullish IMO

Revraiser wrote:It looks like Hudson comes in for sure now does it. Seems more to it just being a toe injury of he played lower grades anyway

The Canberra Times sports reporter says it will be Young straight in to start, but agree with you, the toe injury seems like a cover. Was named again in NSW Cup for this week even after playing the full 80 there last week. Can't figure it out, don't think he was all that bad prior to missing games. Annoying the game is late Sunday.

Jele wrote:Current team is

Randall
Arrow Mann MKing
Fifita Tuilagi
DCE Schneider
Burton Bird
Hynes Papy SCrichton

JKing Tago Jones Starling
Nanai Ilias Thompson Koula

I’m $10k short of JKing + SCrichton -> Cleary + Taafe, but like Booze now thinking I should hold onto SCrichton as WFB/CTR cover.

But would you go:

(A) JKing + SCrichton -> Cleary + Lee (Lee would have to play WFB3)
(B) JKing + Bird/Burton/Tago -> Cleary + Taafe (Taafe as WFB3)
(C) JKing +SCrichton -> Haas + Taafe (Taafe as WFB3)

Leaning towards (B), but struggling to decide which of the three centres to let go.

Any other options I’m missing to bring in Cleary or Haas? Nanai or Schneider doesn’t give me enough cash, and if I trade Arrow or Mann out along with JKing, I’ll need to play Thompson as my third MID.

B for me.

EDIT: Actually, B leaves you short on cover. Maybe it leans in A's favour then.

mattnz wrote:

Very few will have Talatalo. Will be a rare POD strategy that a few teams have. Just 4 of us that I have seen with it on this forum.

Mulitalo is in just 0.2% of top 1,000 teams this week, in a week where everyone is focused on getting Cleary, and he will cost well over $600k next week.

I'm still convinced you just keep misspelling Taumalolo.

How many people are playing Lee in their 17?

The thread title gave me a good laugh and now the tune is stuck in my head.

robelgordo wrote:

The main reason Mulitalo couldn't get as many tries as AJ last season is because 2021 was an outlier thanks to V'Landys Ball (2020-2021 RIP)

AJ and Turbo (28 in 18) scored tries at rates not seen since the early 1950s, or junior rugby league competitions. Another 5-10 scoring around a try per game, where there's usually only 2-3.

Your Mulitalo projections are ridiculously bullish IMO

Papy doesn't keep scoring at 1.3 tries per game for his 51 average so far this season either. Its all relative.

Sorry to do the Ye Old TU/TD post, but need the crew to give me their votes.
TU - Scitta & Coates > Ponga & Taafe
TD - Scritta & Tago > Ponga & Talakai

Thoughts?

easytiger wrote:

If we're honest, it's a little bit flights of fancy isn't it.

I mean yeah, I get it IF Mulitalo was priced at 30 maybe.
But he's already priced at 42, so what you reckon he goes on to average over 50? - it'd have to be 50+ to be worth the risk...

The history of NRL Fantasy is largely devoid of out & out wingers who go on to average 50 over the course of a season - yeah, it could happen, but the odds aren't in his favour.
And if it turns out that the maybe 10% chance that he does average over 50, then everyone will jump on for fairly minor cost (probably under $100k) without having had to carry the risk.

Strikes me as a high risk low reward play and that you might just be in love with the fairytale.

I jumped on Too in similar circumstances in round 2 last season, which worked out great.

I am happy to take a high reward risk to have a chance to leapfrog lots of teams.

The only reason he is priced at 42 is that after a week at CTR, then an injury it held back his pricing, then the only 3 weeks we have seen in his new role with Talakai he has been killing it. If Talakai is the enabler that I think he is, like Mitchell / Turbo last season, its going to be a fun ride.

If you want to win this comp you need to take some calculated risks with huge upside potential if they pay off. The very best ones are those where any non-owner says week after week, this just can't continue. When it happened last season with highly owned Turbo / Cleary lots of people were in with a chance.

If it happens with PODs this season, its going to be carnage for any non-owners that can't keep up each week, while a few race to the top to battle it out.

Chewie wrote:

Probably not as hard as last year, I've got 9 in my team who play rd 13 atm.
The bye rounds are a bit more balanced this year so you can have a good amount of players for each bye round without having to tear apart your team.
Last year I targetted round 13 as round 17 didn't have much on offer.

Plenty of choice for Rd 13 this year:
Fermor, Sexton, Brimson, Cotter, Luki, Nanai, Tolo, Tago, SCrichton, May, TPJ, Burton, Ming, Koula, SJ, Tohu?, Curran, Aitken, Walsh, Schneider, Starling, Walker, Manu, Radley

rd 17:
Cobbo, Reynolds, DeBelin, Lomax, DBrown, Moses, Mahoney, Russell, Ipap, Randall, Mann, Gagai, Jones, Arrow, Koloa, Hynes, Talakai, McInnes, Storm players, and every single Tigers star

Yeah nice, that makes sense. Thinking I might take on your approach a little but yeah both byes are way more balanced then last year.

Makes me think about keeping the likes of Nanai, Tago, Scritta all for round 13, but could backfire holding them for that long. I enjoyed watching you tear it up in round 13 last year though, it was a great strategy.