NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 1 - Just open up already

Holy Moly wrote:

Foxtel has mentioned it.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nrl-premiership/nrl-2023-transfer-news-contracts-latest-lachlan-miller-signs-with-newcastle-knights-cronulla-sharks-kalyn-ponga/news-story/4ab08c18386b959af01c2ae96edbaacc

Nah, that's still "set to sign" and only according to that tool Rothfield. We're still in the same position we were yesterday, it's just that Butters is excitable. Still looks likely to happen but nothing has actually changed.

Aardvark wrote:

I'm expecting him to gather a small band of followers early doors but as his popularity grows and the message spreads he will sacrificed upon the crucifix of rugby league expectation by naysayers. He will unexpectedly rise again three days after being consigned to the fantasy scrapheap (or around origin). By the end of the season he will have ascended into rugby league heaven and be anointed the 14th immortal.

His legend will only grow with the passing of time.

That is what I am expecting of J'maine Hopgood....he has the mark (some peculiar punctuation in his christian name)

Ok but how many minutes would Hopgood play wearing sandals instead of footy boots?

Bethany_B wrote:

Who do you think would get Nicholls's spot? I've heard it's Moale. That said he's only in my starting MID because Clark and Hopgood don't have MID dual yet

Wouldn't touch a souths player other than Thompson, Cook, Latrell or Murray. And fuck me would I touch Murray.

There's a few directions they're indicating with the bench but Demetriou/Bennett have favoured a utility in recent years, so I'd expect to see Taaffe or maybe Milne (once he returns from suspension, to play edge/lock + injury cover) there. Sele and Havili are locked in for round 1 so that leaves the final spot where they could go Host (pushing Arrow to the middle a la 2021, however Arrow has been a brilliant 2nd rower as of late), or a prop who could be Suluka-Fifita (was in the run-on team a couple times late last year, probably first in line), Knight, Moale or Shaqmit.

Honestly don't think any of the 4 would get a significant role barring injuries. Personally I reckon they'll go Host, because having Arrow and Havili (or go smallball with Taaffe) to play lock means they'll stop flogging Murray half to death during the regular season. This post is very long considering I'm dissuading you from buying a fringe bench prop lol

Also Souths pursuing Dom Young from 2024. God that would be good

Lchy wrote:

Wouldn't touch a souths player other than Thompson, Cook, Latrell or Murray. And fuck me would I touch Murray.

There's a few directions they're indicating with the bench but Demetriou/Bennett have favoured a utility in recent years, so I'd expect to see Taaffe or maybe Milne (once he returns from suspension, to play edge/lock + injury cover) there. Sele and Havili are locked in for round 1 so that leaves the final spot where they could go Host (pushing Arrow to the middle a la 2021, however Arrow has been a brilliant 2nd rower as of late), or a prop who could be Suluka-Fifita (was in the run-on team a couple times late last year, probably first in line), Knight, Moale or Shaqmit.

Honestly don't think any of the 4 would get a significant role barring injuries. Personally I reckon they'll go Host, because having Arrow and Havili (or go smallball with Taaffe) to play lock means they'll stop flogging Murray half to death during the regular season. This post is very long considering I'm dissuading you from buying a fringe bench prop lol

Yeah that's fair, though I can't actually get rid of Moale at the moment until Clark and Hopgood get their duals, so I'll keep him as a placeholder for now. Also you mention Latrell, I'm seriously considering him as a POD option ahead of Teddy for the following reasons:

* Since returning from the US, Latrell averaged 60, and his draw was not great for most of it. Only two scores below 40 in that, a 36 and a 35 with a binning.

* Souths may have a tough draw but I don't think it affects Latrell as much as it does for some fullbacks

* Teddy historically starts slow, and while his first 2 matchups are good, the first few rounds is also when the crap teams aren't getting blown out yet. In the first 2 rounds of 2022, only one game had a team score 30 or more points (32-28 Eels vs Titans in round 1).

Of course Teddy is Teddy, and it's not like I don't want him, but I think people are underrating Latrell as a fantasy option.

Summary of key points above.

Teddy starts slow. Avoid at the start of the year

Last year Latrell started slow and finished strong. Start with him

It's irrelevant anyway because Teddy doesn't start slow. He started slow last year.
2021 he started great. 2020 he started with a 30, but the first 2 rounds back after lockdown he scored 94 and 111
2019 was similar, poor in round 1 but killing it by rounds 3+4

Assuming Miller does go to the Knights, am I alone in getting Matt Dufty vibes about him? I mean, here is the fourth best fullback at the Sharks going to a bad team. $426k is attractive, but for ten points of value, how many non-goalkicking fullbacks average 40 in a bottom eight side? Not many.

Other issue is that a *lot* of Knights are fantasy relevant due to changing clubs or positions and loading up on them only to see 36-6 scorelines every other week could be painful. You're gambling too heavily that Newcastle are going to go well, which is a stretch.

Having said that, I'm pretty set on Elliott to score well even if the Knights aren't. Will be hard to ignore Mad Jack at his price *if* he starts on the edge. There's probably value in Hastings but will prefer to let him through to the keeper if I run with Cleary/Burton/Boyd in the halves as currently planned. Ponga has upside but an injury risk. Miller is probably last on that list. (There are others with possible value too... Friz, DSaf, Brailey, the centre Mapapalangi if he's picked). Thing is that people will be running with three Knights backs and not sure it's a great idea to do that unless it's the 2022 Panthers, which they're very much not.

Is Te marie Martin or Metcalf likely to start 6 for warriors?

Do we have any intelligence

Bethany_B wrote:

Who do you think would get Nicholls's spot? I've heard it's Moale. That said he's only in my starting MID because Clark and Hopgood don't have MID dual yet

I have said it before I’ll say it again:

Tatola
Cook
Sele
Keaon
Arrow
Murray

Ta’affe/Mamozelos
T. Burgess
Host
Havili

Moale/DSF

Lchy wrote:Also Souths pursuing Dom Young from 2024. God that would be good

I’d like him too mate but I think he will stay with the Knights. He’s a good player with great potential. He does need to improve his reads though he does rush in at times unnecessarily.

rhinoceroo wrote:Assuming Miller does go to the Knights, am I alone in getting Matt Dufty vibes about him? I mean, here is the fourth best fullback at the Sharks going to a bad team. $426k is attractive, but for ten points of value, how many non-goalkicking fullbacks average 40 in a bottom eight side? Not many.

Other issue is that a *lot* of Knights are fantasy relevant due to changing clubs or positions and loading up on them only to see 36-6 scorelines every other week could be painful. You're gambling too heavily that Newcastle are going to go well, which is a stretch.

Having said that, I'm pretty set on Elliott to score well even if the Knights aren't. Will be hard to ignore Mad Jack at his price *if* he starts on the edge. There's probably value in Hastings but will prefer to let him through to the keeper if I run with Cleary/Burton/Boyd in the halves as currently planned. Ponga has upside but an injury risk. Miller is probably last on that list. (There are others with possible value too... Friz, DSaf, Brailey, the centre Mapapalangi if he's picked). Thing is that people will be running with three Knights backs and not sure it's a great idea to do that unless it's the 2022 Panthers, which they're very much not.

I reckon Miller has 10 points of upside mate. I could see him avg low 40’s even in a bad Knights team. I’m going cold on Ponga I don’t see 10 points of value in him. What are your thoughts on Reece Walsh mate? I think he will go quite well and has some value as I think he gets more attacking stats at the Broncos. But not sure there is enough value there.

Rabbits21 wrote:

I reckon Miller has 10 points of upside mate. I could see him avg low 40’s even in a bad Knights team. I’m going cold on Ponga I don’t see 10 points of value in him. What are your thoughts on Reece Walsh mate? I think he will go quite well and has some value as I think he gets more attacking stats at the Broncos. But not sure there is enough value there.

I'm almost certainly gambling on Walsh, in a better team I think he can flourish

Rabbits21 wrote:

I reckon Miller has 10 points of upside mate. I could see him avg low 40’s even in a bad Knights team. I’m going cold on Ponga I don’t see 10 points of value in him. What are your thoughts on Reece Walsh mate? I think he will go quite well and has some value as I think he gets more attacking stats at the Broncos. But not sure there is enough value there.

I dunno. I did make a team and have Ponga and Walsh bracketed together in my mind as they're the same price. Will probably pick one of them but will decide later. Walsh obviously loses his goalkicking and probably field kicking as long as ARey is fit, but he *is* one of those who has potential to go very big if the Broncos attack clicks, or ARey goes down. (Although if ARey goes down, the Broncos' attack probably won't click. Think I'm talking myself out of him.)

Just on the eye test and being in a better side, much prefer Savage to Miller at a similar price.

I'll ask again... how many non-goalkicking fullbacks average 40+ in a bottom eight team? Not many. Jayden Campbell did last year, which surprises me, but does include some kicking. Dufty did for a couple of seasons at the Dragons, although he also averaged 30 for a couple of seasons. Other than that you have to go back to RTS, and RTS wasn't the Sharks' reserve reserve fullback. Think Miller's ceiling is the good Dufty and his floor is Blake Taafe. Not reading anything at all into a tiny sample size playing for one of the best teams in the comp playing exclusively against lower-ladder sides.

GarethEllisismyDad wrote:Is Te marie Martin or Metcalf likely to start 6 for warriors?

Do we have any intelligence

1. CNK, 6. TMM, 7. SJ according to players and coach. Not sure if there's that much value in any of them despite the cheap prices. Probably most value in SJ with all the kicking, but there are plenty of other halves knocking around.

GarethEllisismyDad wrote:

I'm almost certainly gambling on Walsh, in a better team I think he can flourish

Are The Broncos really *that* much better than The Warriors?

Moanaman wrote:

Are The Broncos really *that* much better than The Warriors?

Yes much much better, better crowd, better spine, better go forward and better outside backs to link with

GarethEllisismyDad wrote:

Yes much much better, better crowd, better spine, better go forward and better outside backs to link with

Better crowd? 🤨

Better treatment from referees, I'll grant you. Could be worth a few points over Warriors scores...

All set until pre season

Smith
Murray(V), Cotter, Butcher (good for 8 weeks, should score mid to high 50's consistently)
Garner, Hopgood
Cleary(C), Hastings
Fidow, Thompson
Averillo, Klokstad, TMM
Boyd
Elliot
Katoa
Utoikamanu(not 100% on him yet)
Talau, Te Whare, Stone, Doorey

Projected score = 720

rhinoceroo wrote:

Better crowd? 🤨

Just meant that brisbane at home is a much harder prospect for opposition than NZ in redcliffe

Admittedly mt smart might be comparable for difficult trips now but walsh want playing there much