NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 1 - Just open up already

rhinoceroo wrote:Assuming Miller does go to the Knights, am I alone in getting Matt Dufty vibes about him? I mean, here is the fourth best fullback at the Sharks going to a bad team. $426k is attractive, but for ten points of value, how many non-goalkicking fullbacks average 40 in a bottom eight side? Not many.

Other issue is that a *lot* of Knights are fantasy relevant due to changing clubs or positions and loading up on them only to see 36-6 scorelines every other week could be painful. You're gambling too heavily that Newcastle are going to go well, which is a stretch.

Having said that, I'm pretty set on Elliott to score well even if the Knights aren't. Will be hard to ignore Mad Jack at his price *if* he starts on the edge. There's probably value in Hastings but will prefer to let him through to the keeper if I run with Cleary/Burton/Boyd in the halves as currently planned. Ponga has upside but an injury risk. Miller is probably last on that list. (There are others with possible value too... Friz, DSaf, Brailey, the centre Mapapalangi if he's picked). Thing is that people will be running with three Knights backs and not sure it's a great idea to do that unless it's the 2022 Panthers, which they're very much not.

Mr Trump wrote:All set until pre season

Smith
Murray(V), Cotter, Butcher (good for 8 weeks, should score mid to high 50's consistently)
Garner, Hopgood
Cleary(C), Hastings
Fidow, Thompson
Averillo, Klokstad, TMM
Boyd
Elliot
Katoa
Utoikamanu(not 100% on him yet)
Talau, Te Whare, Stone, Doorey

Projected score = 720

rhinoceroo wrote:

I dunno. I did make a team and have Ponga and Walsh bracketed together in my mind as they're the same price. Will probably pick one of them but will decide later. Walsh obviously loses his goalkicking and probably field kicking as long as ARey is fit, but he *is* one of those who has potential to go very big if the Broncos attack clicks, or ARey goes down. (Although if ARey goes down, the Broncos' attack probably won't click. Think I'm talking myself out of him.)

Just on the eye test and being in a better side, much prefer Savage to Miller at a similar price.

I'll ask again... how many non-goalkicking fullbacks average 40+ in a bottom eight team? Not many. Jayden Campbell did last year, which surprises me, but does include some kicking. Dufty did for a couple of seasons at the Dragons, although he also averaged 30 for a couple of seasons. Other than that you have to go back to RTS, and RTS wasn't the Sharks' reserve reserve fullback. Think Miller's ceiling is the good Dufty and his floor is Blake Taafe. Not reading anything at all into a tiny sample size playing for one of the best teams in the comp playing exclusively against lower-ladder sides.

mattnz wrote:

Miller averaged 42 for Newtown with only 2 tries in 16 games. Doesn't need to be in a top attacking team to score well.

His TBs at fullback in first grade align with a massive number of them for Newtown as well. In full games, he had between 3 and 16 TBs through the season there. He is only priced at 29 and has shown consistently that high 30s / low 40s are achieveable.

mattnz wrote:

Miller averaged 42 for Newtown with only 2 tries in 16 games. Doesn't need to be in a top attacking team to score well.

His TBs at fullback in first grade align with a massive number of them for Newtown as well. In full games, he had between 3 and 16 TBs through the season there. He is only priced at 29 and has shown consistently that high 30s / low 40s are achieveable.

L-Jimmy wrote:Miller came from union sevens, where there's an emphasis on alive play - lots of offloads, steps, wild passes, quick acceleration. It's a play style likely to rack up Fantasy points, but isn't necessarily a great League playstyle (where ball safety and tackle efficiency are paramount).

It's pretty late in the off-season to have that coached out of him, and it raises the positional risk of him getting switched out too.

I'm leaning 'yes' mostly because of his wife, but also because he could well have a single high-point game early on (first 3 against Warriors, Tigers, Dolphins) that makes good early cash. As he's not a strong cow prospect or a potential keeper YMMV

Bethany_B wrote:

No way in hell does Munster get dual, if he gets named at FB round 1 they will just say that they won't do it because he's there covering for Papenhuyzen.

That said I don't think WFB is that bad, I currently have 5 of them in my team (Teddy, Savage and CNK as my starting three plus Gennings and AKP at 20 and 21)

The Bludger#2 wrote:

Dumb question Bethany, but who is this you refer to AKP?

The Bludger#2 wrote:

Dumb question Bethany, but who is this you refer to AKP?

mattnz wrote:

Not with Starling on the bench.

Weird that they also just signed Levi. 3 NRL standard hookers in a squad seems to be a lot.

Snatchpato wrote:
it's a young titans outside back with the surname Khan-Pereira or similar. Beth has high expectations he'll start on the wing

Mr Trump wrote:@mattnz butcher averaged 58 last 5 games and with Tupiniuoa injured acl should help his minutes

Bethany_B wrote:

Yeah that's fair, though I can't actually get rid of Moale at the moment until Clark and Hopgood get their duals, so I'll keep him as a placeholder for now. Also you mention Latrell, I'm seriously considering him as a POD option ahead of Teddy for the following reasons:

* Since returning from the US, Latrell averaged 60, and his draw was not great for most of it. Only two scores below 40 in that, a 36 and a 35 with a binning.

* Souths may have a tough draw but I don't think it affects Latrell as much as it does for some fullbacks

* Teddy historically starts slow, and while his first 2 matchups are good, the first few rounds is also when the crap teams aren't getting blown out yet. In the first 2 rounds of 2022, only one game had a team score 30 or more points (32-28 Eels vs Titans in round 1).

Of course Teddy is Teddy, and it's not like I don't want him, but I think people are underrating Latrell as a fantasy option.

The Bludger#2 wrote:

Hey Bethany,
just want to pick your brains -
Do you have any ideas about the Storm forward rotation, I haven't picked any up yet and it just feels like I'm missing an obvious cow.
Is McDonald going to see a jump in minutes?

Cheers,
Bludger