NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 1 - Just open up already

rhinoceroo wrote:

Question for you @rabbits21: had a quick look at Isaac Thompson because of dearth of cheap centre options... good YouTube highlights (see above, they are *high*lights), looks a big, powerful unit. But then I read that he's 26? I thought he was rookie just out of school. What's the story that he hasn't made it to first grade before now?

He was with the Dragons I believe in lower grades but he wasn’t committed to it. He then became  very overweight to the obese point life was a bit off the rails as well. JD saw something in him though from when he used to coach their NSW Cup I believe so he reached out to him about turning his life around. Thompson then lost 40kg we signed him and he played in our NSW Cup side. JD would’ve told him mate this is your last chance to make it I have faith in ya but it’s up to you now. He lost the 40kg and has been very good in NSW Cup last year, he has a young family too to support and to me is a late bloomer. The fact JD gave him the opportunity I think Izaak wants to pay that back now.

He is a big strong body too and carrier of the footy and I feel like it’s something we have been missing on the wing a guy that can make big metres and finish off tries well on that right wing.


Mate do you reckon if Roosters get a couple of injuries that Terrell May could be a sneaky cash cow? I see he’s got a good ppm in reserve grade and limited opportunity in first grade his ppm has also been good.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:AKP scored 25 tries in 19 QCup games for an average of 32

Going to be much lower try scoring numbers for the Titans but still probably 7-8 points of value in a base price option. Will be buried deep in my 21 spot

I rather Thompson 20 tries in 16 games avg of 45 in NSW Cup better base and will score probs 15-18 at his lowest whereas AKP has some scores below 5 in reserve grade. I feel Thompson also has a bit better job security.

Rabbits21 wrote:


Mate do you reckon if Roosters get a couple of injuries that Terrell May could be a sneaky cash cow? I see he’s got a good ppm in reserve grade and limited opportunity in first grade his ppm has also been good.

To start the year Roosters probably run out like this

Lodge
Smith
Collins
N.Butcher
Crichton
Radley

Turpin
Jwh
E.Butcher
May/Baker/Wong/Hau Tapuha

Once Watson and Tupouinua get back there won't be too many minutes spare for the young guys. May probably starts the year as the 15-20 minute bench prop

multiple.scoregasms wrote:


To start the year Roosters probably run out like this

Lodge
Smith
Collins
N.Butcher
Crichton
Radley

Turpin
Jwh
E.Butcher
May/Baker/Wong/Hau Tapuha

Once Watson and Tupouinua get back there won't be too many minutes spare for the young guys. May probably starts the year as the 15-20 minute bench prop

I think that's about right, except maybe Hutchinson not Turpin because he can cover more positions.

Cheers for the answer on Thompson, Rabs. Think I'm probably sold

sgdragons10 wrote:no love for liddle on here? plays about 60-70 minutes for me, will do alot of tackling in the dragons pack

If Liddle does get 65 minutes or so, he does seem to be decent value. I can't see Moses Mbye taking too many minutes away from him but you never know right?

So Reimis Smith is highly unlikely for round 1 time to delete app wooohhoooo!

An alternative is Hammer priced at 26 I’d want him to avg 34-35 but I’m highly doubtful of that with him in a weak Dolphins side.

was reading the bulldogs forum & they had a honesty session where 1 by 1 they would say a few things & TPJ said his back is in such a poor state he has to needle up before every game & that his back will be a problem for the rest of his life...this could mean he's a lowish minute impact sub off the bench.

I still feel one of Thompson, King or TPJ needs to be injured for me to buy Sutton.

He mightn’t be relevant round 1 but Sutton will be at some point this year.

Rabbits21 wrote:I still feel one of Thompson, King or TPJ needs to be injured for me to buy Sutton.

He mightn’t be relevant round 1 but Sutton will be at some point this year.

i have sutton in my team i'm not put off by the consensus that he won't play enough mins to be an option

White Lightning wrote:

i have sutton in my team i'm not put off by the consensus that he won't play enough mins to be an option

I think Sutton is a pretty poor pick at just under 500k even if he reaches 10 points in value because he’s still require trade out at 45 average whereas guys like Elliot, TPJ (if he starts), maybe Gilbert, Horsburgh  could become cut priced keeper at low 50s for ~100k more

More explanation - the edge cashies around same price (Penrith & Storm EDG) are not far off keeper (47 average) where the keepers below IPap are low 50s whereas the keeper MIDs are around high 50s/low 60s (Murray, Yeo, Haas) with the trailing pack low 50s (Cotter, Tapine etc etc)

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

If Liddle does get 65 minutes or so, he does seem to be decent value. I can't see Moses Mbye taking too many minutes away from him but you never know right?

Liddle is nearly 600k sitting in your npr round 1.

Honey Badger wrote:

Liddle is nearly 600k sitting in your npr round 1.

If you think a Dragons player is a good buy, then you should still start with them. Better that than waiting until round 2, when there may be more urgent trade ins.

Round 1 is potentially the only round where you will be guaranteed to be able to cover your byes/injuries and field 17 players. If you are unlucky with injuries not even round 2 is a guarantee (although I imagine most people will be OK)

Tyrell Sloan looks to be a handy guy to stash in you NPRs for a start - although not sure I'd want to start with too many other dragons.

Heavy guns and cows draft I had a look at

Grant
Murray Wallace Hetho
Doorey Garner
Hynes Cleary
Thompson HTF
Miller CNK Gennings

Smith Boyd TMM Hopgood
Blore Perham Sloan Talau

+165k ITB for tinkering based on trials

Camo123 wrote:

I think Sutton is a pretty poor pick at just under 500k even if he reaches 10 points in value because he’s still require trade out at 45 average whereas guys like Elliot, TPJ (if he starts), maybe Gilbert, Horsburgh  could become cut priced keeper at low 50s for ~100k more

More explanation - the edge cashies around same price (Penrith & Storm EDG) are not far off keeper (47 average) where the keepers below IPap are low 50s whereas the keeper MIDs are around high 50s/low 60s (Murray, Yeo, Haas) with the trailing pack low 50s (Cotter, Tapine etc etc)

Depends on Sutton's role. You would have said the same of Ofa at the start of last season. If Sutton is getting 60+ minutes per game, he averages 55. You would need the same minutes to be considering Elliott, Gilbert or Horse to be getting low 50s. If Sutton is starting at worst you would expect 50+ minutes per game, which he averages 50 for (either off the bench or starting MID).

Horse average over 50 minutes is only 48, with only 1 game of exactly 60 minutes in the MID ever, compared with Sutton who has played big minutes 11 times in his career, in a stacked Raiders pack. Elliott equally needs huge minutes, getting 50+ at lock he only averages 48, he needs 60+ to average 54.

Gilbert is harder to judge, but as starting prop only averages 0.74 ppm, so would need huge minutes also.

If TPJ is going to have a minimal role due to a chronic injury then there is no reason Sutton shouldn't perform as well as any of these guys for $100k+ cheaper.

mattnz wrote:

Depends on Sutton's role. You would have said the same of Ofa at the start of last season. If Sutton is getting 60+ minutes per game, he averages 55. You would need the same minutes to be considering Elliott, Gilbert or Horse to be getting low 50s. If Sutton is starting at worst you would expect 50+ minutes per game, which he averages 50 for (either off the bench or starting MID).

Horse average over 50 minutes is only 48, with only 1 game of exactly 60 minutes in the MID ever, compared with Sutton who has played big minutes 11 times in his career, in a stacked Raiders pack. Elliott equally needs huge minutes, getting 50+ at lock he only averages 48, he needs 60+ to average 54.

Gilbert is harder to judge, but as starting prop only averages 0.74 ppm, so would need huge minutes also.

If TPJ is going to have a minimal role due to a chronic injury then there is no reason Sutton shouldn't perform as well as any of these guys for $100k+ cheaper.

Ming 45
Mahoney 70
Thompson 55
TPJ 25 (+35 MID)
Kikau 80
Sutton 50

Utility 10
RFM 55
Patolo 30
Pele 25

Whose mins could you see dropping to get Sutton an extra 10-15 mins here

A fan forum is not a great source re TPJ “injury”

Milchcow wrote:

If you think a Dragons player is a good buy, then you should still start with them. Better that than waiting until round 2, when there may be more urgent trade ins.

Round 1 is potentially the only round where you will be guaranteed to be able to cover your byes/injuries and field 17 players. If you are unlucky with injuries not even round 2 is a guarantee (although I imagine most people will be OK)

Tyrell Sloan looks to be a handy guy to stash in you NPRs for a start - although not sure I'd want to start with too many other dragons.

Rd 1 is one of the few rounds you'll be able to play your strongest 17. You can pick 17 players that dont have a bye.
Sloan is different because he'll be hiding down at 21.

That's it. Gotta think of it, that at the start of Rd2 the Dragons will be the closest of all 17 teams to finishing their 3 byes. It's all about perspective.

Honey Badger wrote:

Liddle is nearly 600k sitting in your npr round 1.

Don’t think that’s an issue for Mr conspiracies, he’s starting with Bird and Suli in his centres round 1 as well. What’s another $600k on top of the 1.1mill in red dot centres?

Camo123 wrote:

Ming 45
Mahoney 70
Thompson 55
TPJ 25 (+35 MID)
Kikau 80
Sutton 50

Utility 10
RFM 55
Patolo 30
Pele 25

Whose mins could you see dropping to get Sutton an extra 10-15 mins here

A fan forum is not a great source re TPJ “injury”

Even these mins are a bit generous.

Ming finished the season last year with 55+ mins
RFM finished 70+ mins and that’s recovering from a bad injury.
Mahoney is an 80 min HOK, that’s why they brought him.
Thompson barely played a game at the back end.
Kikau will play 80 apart from his “HIA’s”….



I wouldn’t be going anywhere near the FRF at dogs period and if I was a betting man I’d have Sutton close to last in the lineup to see an increase in mins.

arsendragon wrote:That's it. Gotta think of it, that at the start of Rd2 the Dragons will be the closest of all 17 teams to finishing their 3 byes. It's all about perspective.

It’s definitely a perspective thing, for example from my perspective the dragons are shit and recruited shit and in fantasy are shit. Not one player in the whole team averaging above 50 last year and won’t be again this year. I’ll probably get Sloan as a loop for round one and hopefully some quick cash now that Ramsey is out, and that’s it.