NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 2 - What's the magic number ?

3k itb

Cheese
Murray, Tohu, Paseka
Garner, Hopgood
Cleary, Burton
HTF, Alamoti
Teddy, Miller, Perham

Hastings, Kenny, Stone, TMM
Sloan, Doorey, AKP, Talau

Really happy with this. Poor centres but i dont want to spend up on a position where i only have faith in a handful of players. Dropping Holmes down has allowed me to fit Tohu in who i think is slightly underpriced.

rhinoceroo wrote:What are we reading into Chan starting and Katoa bench for the Storm (with Loiero and Sims not named)?

My guess is Sims and Loiero have the edge spots to start and one of Chan and Katoa gets a bench spot - though eventually Sims would move to the bench.

That said I would hope I'm wrong here, I would much rather two of the young guys start and Sims stay in the middle where we've lost more depth. Second trial should tell us more hopefully.

With so much chat around lack of decent centres I’d like to throw D Gagai up for discussion.
Haven’t really seen his name at all thrown around but started last year with a bang, probably the best centre over the first five rounds. Dropped off after that, not sure why but seemingly was after Clifford fell away who was giving him plenty of early ball.
Finished the season with over a 50 average in his last 5 and probably has the softest draw to start the season.
I’m thinking with a much better halves pairing in Ponga and Hastings he will be the obvious/smoky most will miss.

Bethany_B wrote:

My guess is Sims and Loiero have the edge spots to start and one of Chan and Katoa gets a bench spot - though eventually Sims would move to the bench.

That said I would hope I'm wrong here, I would much rather two of the young guys start and Sims stay in the middle where we've lost more depth. Second trial should tell us more hopefully.

Sims can play edge and middle so I assume he comes off the bench. Gives Bellamy an experienced player to plug holes.

t43597 wrote:3k itb

Cheese
Murray, Tohu, Paseka
Garner, Hopgood
Cleary, Burton
HTF, Alamoti
Teddy, Miller, Perham

Hastings, Kenny, Stone, TMM
Sloan, Doorey, AKP, Talau

Really happy with this. Poor centres but i dont want to spend up on a position where i only have faith in a handful of players. Dropping Holmes down has allowed me to fit Tohu in who i think is slightly underpriced.

I really don't get the point of Paseka, as someone who owned him in SC in 2021. His PPM is decent at around 1 (in 2022, it was 0.8 in 2021) but given he's priced at 34, he would need to average 44ppg to be value and would need to average somewhere between 44 and 55 minutes a week which I don't think he'll do.

Kenny is also a trap, there's mail that Kenny won't play big mins at hooker, and it'll be Soni Luke getting 45-55 mins there with Kenny starting to take the sting out early.

Hammer's alright but I don't see why you'd pay 370k for him when downgrading him to Soni Luke at 250k can free up enough cash to get Val back in.

TLDR: I would swap Paseka, Kenny and Hammer to Holmes, Loiero and Soni Luke, you can do this with 33k to spare. You would need to put Stone or Cheese at MID for now until Hopgood gets his dual but that's fine

Genderbender wrote:With so much chat around lack of decent centres I’d like to throw D Gagai up for discussion.
Haven’t really seen his name at all thrown around but started last year with a bang, probably the best centre over the first five rounds. Dropped off after that, not sure why but seemingly was after Clifford fell away who was giving him plenty of early ball.
Finished the season with over a 50 average in his last 5 and probably has the softest draw to start the season.
I’m thinking with a much better halves pairing in Ponga and Hastings he will be the obvious/smoky most will miss.

For 60k more you can get Val Holmes who's in a far better team and kicks goals.

My guess is that the Storm will be down 12 nil after 20 minutes in trial #1 and Beth will write their season off there and then

my tv broke wrote:My guess is that the Storm will be down 12 nil after 20 minutes in trial #1 and Beth will write their season off there and then

Given we haven't named much of our first team, I don't really care what happens with the first trial. I just want to see everyone get through injury-free and if someone like Sua Fa'alogo lights it up then great.

mattnz wrote:Tapine is getting lots of love on all the podcasts I have been listening to. Can see him having a huge Allstars game and most trying to fit him into their teams.

I have him in my latest draft, with a stacked MID, as there looks to be lots of value at the top end with guys that are big minute, high ppm beasts and undervalued - Tapine, Cotter, Harris, Tino.

Honey Badger wrote:

Without seeing the rest of your team that feels one mid gun too many. I reckon you'll need to choose between Tapine and Tino rather than starting with both of them

I'll post this before I see the trial teams and related commentary. My current draft has Haas, Cotter, Elliot with Smith and Hopgood on bench. I'm not seeing a lot of great value at mid and would rather spend the cash there for guns at the expense of back five and bench. I'm almost certainly gonna balance it up though.

mattnz wrote:

Just wrote up my 2023 team tracker which is linked in my profile, where I explain my team structure and rationale.

Spending big on high end MID and HLF with value, going really cheap with value in EDG, CTR and WFB, to be able to afford the high end MIDs.

Haven't read it yet, but in theory that's my plan too.

the_great_wobbler wrote:

Writing off a young guy who, apart from one game, was getting better and better all season and has excellent job security playing in a good team seems slightly shortsighted? He might not set the world on fire again this season but he's going to have a whole extra preseason of size and defensive work. Only has to average 40 to make his 150k. Also has a great bye schedule and plays r13. Could do a lot worse.

I have to agree with Matt. I held him for an eternity last season. He's getting better in real life but fantasy pus. I'm on Boyd as well. For now.

A couple of things from the Warriors v Tigers team list. Matamua and Talau both starting so we can put a line through them. In the Warriors side both Metcalf and TMM starting -does the winner get to play alongside SJ next week? In the dogs game both Averillo and Alamati both starting -there is still hope then, I really need Alamoti to start Rd1 if Talau is out!

Happy new year. What's doing?

Pain wrote:Happy new year.  What's doing?

Welcome back mate!

Mulvy wrote:

I have to agree with Matt. I held him for an eternity last season. He's getting better in real life but fantasy pus. I'm on Boyd as well. For now.

Time will tell I guess, I have both but see Ilias as close to 10pts unders.

mattnz wrote:

He played 5 games at prop last season, scoring < 60 in just 1 of those games (a 49). His game has really grown and he was on fire when he switched positions at the end of last season. He has kept big minutes, and in the new prop role is a primary ball carrier (187m per game) and with that has added an offload that wasn't there when he last played prop (1.8 per game vs 0.1 per game) and busts tackles. Had massive scores just from a huge work rate, not relying on any tries. He has been playing like Carrigan, but doesn't have a Haas in the team competing for minutes and is the Captain, so will stay on the field for big minutes.

Even with the Haas factor id still rather go Carrigan over Tino. Carrigan is cheaper but the main thing putting me off Tino is his rd 5 bye. Rd 3 Cleary has the bye, rd 4 Smith has a bye, if I have Tino then rd 5 is another round I'll be missing one of my gun players. Broncos dont have a bye before origin so Carrigan will play an extra game over Tino before origin.

We confident Hopgood gets dpp? Would give a lot of extra options.

The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:Everyone complaining about distinct lack of centre options! Zac Cini named at centre! No more silly than picking Illias, with the draw from hell over Boyd as your cheap half!

All good in theory Pakko Fiako, but Cini is only on a development contract and not part of the Eels Top 30

Just on Ilias. From R18 onwards (including finals) he averaged 39 and is priced at 29.
Exclude the 3 shockers (hooked after 29 minutes and a first minute HIA, and he averaged 37 from R4 on.

If you go by the logic it took him a little while to find his feet in first grade, I don't think its crazy to expect him to continue that scoring.

No one for Ponga or Turbo?

Injury risk, for both, I get it.

But Turbo averaged 83 the season before last. 83.

Ponga is cheaper and has a ceiling of banner++ and a nice draw.

Any takers?