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    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 4 - It's go time !

    mrbrownstone
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    Post by mrbrownstone Wed Feb 22, 2023 5:29 pm

    I feel like NAS gets talked about almost every pre-season these days.

    Even when he gets big minutes (50+) he averages 49.6. Priced at 42 I just don't see it. Only way I'd touch him is if he starts playing that edge role again.
    Honey Badger
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    Post by Honey Badger Wed Feb 22, 2023 5:34 pm

    Milchcow wrote:

    Not Perham specifically, but lets assume everyone is running with a lot of cheap WFB/CTR. These are the options sub $300k that I find most interesting

    Paul Alamoti CTR $230k
    Perhaps the best of the cheap backs. Base price, reasonable job security and has a game that looks good for Fantasy. I assume everyone will have him, either starting or in NPR

    Tommy Talau CTR/WFB $250k
    Unsure job security, but looks to be at least starting the year at centre. Has a history of solid mid30s average mixed in with some single digit shockers. DPP sees him as a reasonably popular NPR

    Alofiana Khan-Pereira WFB $230k
    Scores a lot of tries, but that seems to be it. Will find it harder scoring them for the Titans than for Burleigh. Averaged 30 in QCUP despite scoring 25 tries in 20 games. Not great fantasy prospects, but he's cheap and looks to be starting.

    Jesse Mclean CTR/WFB $230k
    Rumours he'll replace Taylan May ahead of Turuva. Panthers winger so tries are expected. But he's young and has barely played against adults before, so who knows what to expect, if he does get a start. Could be another Taylan May, or could be a Charlie Staines.

    Hayze Perham WFB $298k
    Mostly played centre or winger in the past, but gets first crack at Bulldogs fullback. Not inspiring in the trials, so people will be concerned he may get dropped if he has a few bad performances., Played a bit of fullback in NSW Cup where his stats weren't the best. Priced at 21, so doesn't have to be awesome to provide value, which is a good thing for potential owners

    Tyrell Sloan WFB $250k
    Dragons fullback, bye in round 1 s he'd be your round 1 loop. Fullback average is 33 , well above his priced average of 17. Bit of rocks and diamonds with a few low 80 minute scores. Has a high try scoring rate (7 in 9 games at fullback) which you would want to continue. I'd rate him higher than Perham - cheaper and with better job security

    Will Warbrick $230k WFB
    Looking at starting on the wing for the Storm. They have a few other options so not a guaranteed spot, but fantasy wise he's the one we want to see on TLT. Averaged 38 fantasy points in QCUp last year, surely a 30+ is possible in the NRL
    Just need to hope he can secure a spot

    Harley Smith-Shields $250k CTR
    Priced at 17 he averages 36 in first grade on the wing (7 games) Injuries mean he's a real chance to start the season. Not really in first choice 17 though so job security is a concern.


    There's also a few other cheapish guys in the next price bracket that may also be worthwhile (eg Te Maire Martin, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Lachlan Miller, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow)

    Ive got Warbrick and Alamoti locked in and deciding between Talau, HSS and McLean (if he gets the start) as a backup ctr. Ive got no interest in Sloan or Perham!
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    Post by my tv broke Wed Feb 22, 2023 5:45 pm

    I dont see much wrong with picking a guy priced at 42 who goes at 49.

    Literally no one is nailing a squad full of 10 pt underpriced players.

    Dunno if NAS is worth picking or not but its a gamble that shouldnt really hurt too much. Looking at that roster theres gotta be solid mins (consistently) for him this season?

    If he goes off it will be because of a lot of tries
    Krump
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    Post by Krump Wed Feb 22, 2023 5:49 pm

    Where’s the 10 pts of value thing come from?
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    Post by Camo123 Wed Feb 22, 2023 5:50 pm

    Krump wrote:Where’s the 10 pts of value thing come from?

    Mostly from some analysis on squad value needed for 17-18 guns at end of season

    Eventually works it’s way back to around wanting/needing 150k profit per trade which is 10pts of value roughly (14300 per point)
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Wed Feb 22, 2023 5:51 pm

    Boozecluez wrote:

    Nrl had to introduce byes and fantasy didn’t add extra reserves so can’t imagine that combo works well.

    Adding extra trades is easier than increasing squad size. Fanhub ain't putting in effort if there's a cheap option

    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Wed Feb 22, 2023 5:53 pm


    When considering Storm forward rotation, don't forget Christian Welch is effectively a new signing after only playing 1 game last year
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    Post by Holy Moly Wed Feb 22, 2023 5:54 pm

    When I said I couldn't do any more tinkering....I was wrong. I've now got Bird, Turbo and Suaalii. Doesn't look half bad.
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    Post by my tv broke Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:07 pm

    Milchcow wrote:
    When considering Storm forward rotation, don't forget Christian Welch is effectively a new signing after only playing 1 game last year


    He has also been named sole captain
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    Post by Eaglestar Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:08 pm

    Every year it comes up as this is the year for NAS but it never eventuates, i will never be sucked in again picking him. Great player but he will never be relevent ever unfortunately in fantasy games.
    Welsh would tempt me but priced about what expect for Fantasy. On Supercoach he offers very good value but with the price on that.
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    Post by my tv broke Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:09 pm

    Krump wrote:Where’s the 10 pts of value thing come from?

    I dunno man. People always talk about it as though a player isnt worth picking if they arent 10+ points undervalued

    Which of course thats ideal but it doesnt really work out that way
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    Post by Welshy Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:09 pm

    How long is Tui Kamikamkca out for?
    Ramitinmyhaaas
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    Post by Ramitinmyhaaas Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:11 pm

    Welshy wrote:How long is Tui Kamikamkca out for?

    4-6 Weeks lad
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    Post by Guest Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:15 pm

    From DT:
    Parramatta co-captain Junior Paulo is expecting coach Brad Arthur to turn to a mix of new and old faces to deal with the side’s injury crisis in the backrow.

    With Shaun Lane (jaw) out indefinitely, Matt Doorey (ankle) under an injury cloud and Ryan Matterson to miss the first three rounds of the season, Arthur is expected to lean on new signing Jack Murchie and the more familiar Bryce Cartwright for round one’s clash against Melbourne.

    “Luckily it’s not my job to pick the team each week but it opens up opportunities for a few of the boys,” Paulo said.

    “It’s a tough decision for Brad and a bit of a headache for him. We get Bryce Cartwright coming back as well, so he’s in the mix. We’ve got three of four backrowers, guys like Jack Murchie in the frame.
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    Post by Welshy Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:17 pm

    Ramitinmyhaaas wrote:

    4-6 Weeks lad

    Thanks mate.

    That’s probably enough for me to seriously consider NAS again. Storm seriously lacking the MIDs Brom gone and Tui out early.

    Welch returning only adding +1 into the middle rotation from last year.

    I wouldn’t be expecting 55, NAS just isn’t built that way, but I’d be picking him hoping he goes off early with a monster game and then jump off when he plateaus
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    Post by Mulvy Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:18 pm

    Did someone say Carty party?!
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    Post by my tv broke Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:18 pm

    Ramitinmyhaaas wrote:

    4-6 Weeks lad

    Did that fella have a court case or did that all get resolved
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    Post by Bethany_B Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:21 pm

    Milchcow wrote:
    When considering Storm forward rotation, don't forget Christian Welch is effectively a new signing after only playing 1 game last year

    Welch basically offsets the loss of JBrom, but we also lost Cheese who was primarily playing middle. With Kamikamica injured that's another out, so Welch and NAS should both get plenty of minutes.
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    Post by Ramitinmyhaaas Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:22 pm

    my tv broke wrote:

    Did that fella have a court case or did that all get resolved

    Yeah he did have a court case but it got dismissed like early last year I believe
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    Post by Milchcow Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:24 pm

    my tv broke wrote:


    He has also been named sole captain

    80 minutes locked in

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