2016 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 12

RJConner reminds me of me my first year lol, oh the good ol carefree days.

Bump from earlier in the day

Seggy > Walker via Niki
Lichaa > Smith

or

Seggy > Smith
Lichaa > Garvey (will be in the 17)

Leaves me with 213k and 233k respectively to spend next week on the second chance saloon squad.

Any problems with those trades?

Simon Templar wrote:

Awesome stuff HS.

Thanks mate, hope you all enjoy

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:RJConner reminds me of me my first year lol, oh the good ol carefree days.

Bump from earlier in the day

Seggy > Walker via Niki
Lichaa > Smith

or

Seggy > Smith
Lichaa > Garvey (will be in the 17)

Leaves me with 213k  and 233k respectively to spend next week on the second chance saloon squad.

Any problems with those trades?

Holy shit LB it didn't even occur to me when I read this the first time that you had both Seggy and Lichaa. That's rotten! If I was gambling on either of those two I think I'd take the first.Though it's a fairly close thing between either option IMO, that cash will come in handy in the next few weeks though.

Haha any post that has the word 'flaccid' in it is going to be a winner. Good shit HS lol

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:RJConner reminds me of me my first year lol, oh the good ol carefree days.

Bump from earlier in the day

Seggy > Walker via Niki
Lichaa > Smith

or

Seggy > Smith
Lichaa > Garvey (will be in the 17)

Leaves me with 213k  and 233k respectively to spend next week on the second chance saloon squad.

Any problems with those trades?

Both sets of trades are good LB. It's a toss of the coin really so go with your gut I reckon.

That's shocking luck having both Seggy and Lichaa mate. It's KOD-like.

Rd 1 BEs (this is also posted in the sticky thread up the top of the forum for you to find easily in need)

EDIT: Please ignore BEs for any one that didn't play NRL last year and isn't rookie priced (eg Sam Burgess, Zeb Taia, Elliott Whitehead) 
I'm treating all their scores last year as 14.5 which is not supposed to happen.

Its gone midnight and I need sleep so I can't fix it up now, so will get to it when I can.
You should be able to use my price predictor to work out what will happen to those guys if you need to know

Quick notes.

15 Average is there 2015 average.
If they didn't play in 2015 its their price divided by 8935

For round 1. the 3 game average is calculated using their last score, and their price / 8935 as the other 2 scores.


Last score is self explanatory (I only include players that have played a game in the spreadsheet, so everyone has a last score)

Magic Number from round 1 is 9240. This is higher than anticipated, mostly because the round was actually low scoring. The lowest since round 1 last year in fact.

MN will start decreasing now for 2 reasons
a) Total scores will start getting higher as all the guns you've traded out start hitting their averages again
b) The total value of players on the field drops, as guys like Segeyaro, Reynolds, Lichaa are replaced by min-price rookies

Spreadsheet is sorted by projected price rise if players hit their 3 game average, within position (whichever position they are listed in first for DPP players)

any more questions just go for it.

Updated BEs just a couple of posts down

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:RJConner reminds me of me my first year lol, oh the good ol carefree days.

Bump from earlier in the day

Seggy > Walker via Niki
Lichaa > Smith

or

Seggy > Smith
Lichaa > Garvey (will be in the 17)

Leaves me with 213k  and 233k respectively to spend next week on the second chance saloon squad.

Any problems with those trades?

Why are you trading Lichaa to Smith in the first one and Seggy - smith in the second one.

Pedantic Milchcow gets confused.

I am in the same boat as you though and my planned trades are
Lichaa - Garvey
Seggy - Peats/Smith

So I say the second one

Welshy wrote:Who did KNiko spell for Macca to play 80?

Don't quote me but I think Wallace went off Thaiday moved from the second row (because Glenn was in the centres) to the middle with Macca

Milchcow wrote:

Why are you trading Lichaa to Smith in the first one and Seggy - smith in the second one.

Pedantic Milchcow gets confused.

I am in the same boat as you though and my planned trades are
Lichaa - Garvey
Seggy - Peats/Smith

So I say the second one

+1 to the confusion and recommedation

Updated BEs, hope the issues from earlier are fixed now

if not it really does have to wait as I'm off to bed

Thanks Milchy.

THE LEESON AH MAU DILEMMA

LAH did not get the minutes most of us expected last night. As a Dragons fan first and foremost, I was baffled as he was our best forward in the opening 25 minutes and was a big reason why we were up 10-0. The fact that he only came back for the last 14 minutes was confusing.

Part of me feels Mary is still coming to grips with how to use his 8 interchanges. JDB and Will Matthews are a prime example. Both played 76 minutes last night according to the stats. I'm not sure when they came off, but why were these two given 4 minute rests when interchanges are a valued commodity?



As the above shows, Ah Mau finished the season playing bigger minutes. If he can manage 7-8 more minutes on the paddock, there is value to be had. Certainly worth holding for 1 more week at least to see how Mary plans to use him

Cheers for the BE Milch, I think those have just scared me into dumping LAM. If he fails again he is looking likely to drop by a larger amount than I was initially guessing at. Not only that but a few of the other players I was looking at in the following week are likely to fall by less than I expected or rise by more than I expected so the $ will be at a premium. Hmm bugger, I so wanted to hold onto him and feel good about him coming good but I'm such a chicken.

Cheers Milch!

With any trade I make this week (Lichaa out 100% being 1) I want to make sure I have the funds to turn Green into someone decent next week if he sticks around on the bench I don't want Gutherson starting there long term

Archer wrote:Cheers for the BE Milch, I think those have just scared me into dumping LAM. If he fails again he is looking likely to drop by a larger amount than I was initially guessing at. Not only that but a few of the other players I was looking at in the following week are likely to fall by less than I expected or rise by more than I expected so the $ will be at a premium. Hmm bugger, I so wanted to hold onto him and feel good about him coming good but I'm such a chicken.

Im gonna risk it.

Let's say worst case scenario for me happens, Ah Mau pumps out another 30, drops to 340k. Carter pumps out another 50, rises to 250k. There's still a 90k turnaround in there for next week. At the same time, IF this happens, Carters BE will stay low and his security will improve which will see him rise to ~370k by rd 5. Neither of them are keepers so Im happy to risk a bit of cash now that will definitely be made up in the coming weeks.

Unless you're looking at bringing guns in next week, I wouldn't stress too much. Trades are more valuable than points and cash combined.

charliemurphy wrote:

Im gonna risk it.

Let's say worst case scenario for me happens, Ah Mau pumps out another 30, drops to 340k. Carter pumps out another 50, rises to 250k. There's still a 90k turnaround in there for next week. At the same time, IF this happens, Carters BE will stay low and his security will improve which will see him rise to ~370k by rd 5. Neither of them are keepers so Im happy to risk a bit of cash now that will definitely be made up in the coming weeks.

Unless you're looking at bringing guns in next week, I wouldn't stress too much. Trades are more valuable than points and cash combined.

Well as it currently stands I'm contemplating bringing in KSims either this week or next. IF and its a big IF (though starting looks good given the mins last week and where the points came from stat wise), KSmims scores another 50+ he goes up about 20k this week. I don't have enough money to pick him up this week unless I dump someone like LAM. So If I hold off this week, worse case scenario for me is like a 30K shift.

If I go Grant to Terepo and Leiluia to Carter this week, I'm left with 55k. If that worse case scenario occurs and I want to trade LAM to KSims next week I'm left with ~25K. Not the end of the world, but 3/4 of my centres are currently Benry, Green and Gutherson, which I was kind of hoping to do something about sometime soon so I'm not stuck with Gutherson in my 17.

On the other hand, now that I've looked at what Terepo could rise if he scores 40-50 (not sure how likely that is but eh) maybe its not so bad after all. Ah fuck it, looks like I'll be doing a shit load more theory crafting and research once I knock off work. Thanks for the discussion though, helps to get the mind going and start thinking about multiple options.

I'm going with Mbye instead of Reynolds purely because I think they score very similar but the base stats of Mbyes goal kicking should get me slightly more consistent points

Next week will be working on getting Leuluai out of my side unless he gets more minutes and perhaps getting in Cody Walker. Then hopefully be able to sit on the same team for a little while.

Honeysett wrote:I'm going with Mbye instead of Reynolds purely because I think the try score very similiar but the base stats of Mbyes goal kicking should get me slightly more consistent points

Next week will be working on getting Leuluai out of my side unless he gets more minutes and perhaps getting in Cody Walker. Then hopefully be able to sit on the same team for a little while.

I regret having chosen JRey because of the extra kicking Mbye did as well as the goal kicking. Good call I'd say if choosing between the two.

Honeysett wrote:I'm going with Mbye instead of Reynolds purely because I think they score very similar but the base stats of Mbyes goal kicking should get me slightly more consistent points

Next week will be working on getting Leuluai out of my side unless he gets more minutes and perhaps getting in Cody Walker. Then hopefully be able to sit on the same team for a little while.

Archer wrote:

I regret having chosen JRey because of the extra kicking Mbye did as well as the goal kicking. Good call I'd say if choosing between the two.

I'll take a bet with the pair of you that JRey averages more than Mbye over the season?

Welshy wrote:



I'll take a bet with the pair of you that JRey averages more than Mbye over the season?

Keep talking, I'm interested...