NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 10 - Look in my Eyes. I'll diagnose what ails you

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:

I don’t think you can be consistent with a sample size of 1.

Interested though

Look at his lock stats 2020 and 2021. Average 66 and average 69, back to his consistent best following an ACL.

IF HTF became a quality Fullback, then he's attractive largely from the not-Center available at center position.

I don't think that 20 runs for 200 metres makes that suddenly his base.

As an example; Tedesco had the second most MG per game last year.
He had instances of 299, 312, 317m in a game, as well as 138, 140, 146m.
The year before he had three 80 minute games where he went under 100m (in Vlandy's ball).

My point is, we don't know if 192m is an upper limit or will be closer to a par week at the Dolphins - history says its his 2nd highest MG from 15 80ish minute games at Fullback.
You may find HTF's base is 15-20 points and yeah, some weeks you might get 40 or 50, but others low 20's or less.

Historically he's now a 34 average, priced at ~28, so some value for sure, nothing to say it's a slam dunk yet

easytiger wrote:IF HTF became a quality Fullback, then he's attractive largely from the not-Center available at center position.

I don't think that 20 runs for 200 metres makes that suddenly his base.

As an example; Tedesco had the second most MG per game last year.
He had instances of 299, 312, 317m in a game, as well as 138, 140, 146m.
The year before he had three 80 minute games where he went under 100m (in Vlandy's ball).

My point is, we don't know if 192m is an upper limit or will be closer to a par week at the Dolphins - history says its his 2nd highest MG from 15 80ish minute games at Fullback.
You may find HTF's base is 15-20 points and yeah, some weeks you might get 40 or 50, but others low 20's or less.

Historically he's now a 34 average, priced at ~28, so some value for sure, nothing to say it's a slam dunk yet

Great post.

Last year TMM played his first game of NRL for the Broncos, at fullback, in round 7. Ran 147m for 43 points.

Only cracked 100m two more times in the following 12 games.

Different players obviously and all that, but big games have a history for outlier type stats in various ways

mattnz wrote:

Look at his lock stats 2020 and 2021. Average 66 and average 69, back to his consistent best following an ACL.

That’s fair. Sorry mate wasn’t intentionally being a prick, just havnt slept in a while

Am I alone in thinking that Isaako is the better bet, rather than Hammer?

Had 180+ run meters in only 3 less attempts. Watching the game, he looked like the more likely to break tackles and the line. Looked very hungry.
Added bonus of kicking goals.

GreenSchist wrote:Am I alone in thinking that Isaako is the better bet, rather than Hammer?

Had 180+ run meters in only 3 less attempts. Watching the game, he looked like the more likely to break tackles and the line. Looked very hungry.
Added bonus of kicking goals.

I also thought he looked better and the goal kicking is very nice (although Dolphins likely wont get as many tries each week)

If i was going a WFB id take Isaako but I imagine most people are looking at Hammer because he is a Center.

would be WFBs id take over both.

my tv broke wrote:


Great post.

Last year TMM played his first game of NRL for the Broncos, at fullback, in round 7. Ran 147m for 43 points.

Only cracked 100m two more times in the following 12 games.

Different players obviously and all that, but big games have a history for outlier type stats in various ways

I didn't get trapped by TMM last year so I didn't really remember that but great point, I may reverse my trade now. Might just do AKP to Carty and hold the other trade, or just not bother with that at all.

Tino to Harris is a trade I’m looking at. Feels like it has the potential to be quite sideways.

Although with Hopgood and Carrigan presumably a pretty high scoring combo I could go for a cheapie like Ford to round it out

Aardvark wrote:

Lchy wrote:

I had 4 in my squad score less than 20 and I'd still say Hopgood is the only guy worth chasing if you don't have him, but everyone does. Not many irresistible cows right now

Si

Agreed, I am also worth chasing.

Doesn't look too bad really

Smith
Harris Haas Carrigan
Hopgood (C) Katoa
Cleary Moses
Bird Talakai
Ponga Miller Warbrick

Loiero
Cartwright
Chee Kam
Trindall

Sloan,Katoa,Alamoti,HSS

Boozecluez wrote:Doesn't look too bad really

Smith
Harris Haas Carrigan
Hopgood (C) Katoa
Cleary Moses
Bird Talakai
Ponga Miller Warbrick

Loiero
Cartwright
Chee Kam
Trindall

Sloan,Katoa,Alamoti,HSS

That's pretty good, mine is not too bad either

Smith
Haas, Murray, HopGOAT
E Katoa, Loiero
Cleary, Doueihi
Bird, Talau
Walsh, Miller, Warbrick

Boyd, E Butcher, Trindall, Ford

Carty Party, Alamoti, Preston, I Katoa

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Tino to Harris is a trade I’m looking at. Feels like it has the potential to be quite sideways.

Although with Hopgood and Carrigan presumably a pretty high scoring combo I could go for a cheapie like Ford to round it out

Also non Ford owner in a pickle, Butcher and BSmith were my main underperformers and potential trade thoughts

Ford looks to be good buy with JS issues alleviated but I wonder if the high MT may continue

Happy to dump cheese to raise Hynes funds

Bethany_B wrote:

That's pretty good, mine is not too bad either

Smith
Haas, Murray, HopGOAT
E Katoa, Loiero
Cleary, Doueihi
Bird, Talau
Walsh, Miller, Warbrick

Boyd, E Butcher, Trindall, Ford

Carty Party, Alamoti, Preston, I Katoa

Needs more cheese and tofu

Bethany_B wrote:

I didn't get trapped by TMM last year so I didn't really remember that but great point, I may reverse my trade now. Might just do AKP to Carty and hold the other trade, or just not bother with that at all.

Im not really saying which way things will go for HTF. No fkn idea tbh.

I guess anything over 35 average is a win if you pick him up, seems realistic.

SoylentGreen wrote:So players can drop below 230k this season?

Maybe if they are really shit you can wait until they go negative and pocket the difference when you sell them

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

Maybe if they are really shit you can wait until they go negative and pocket the difference when you sell them

I recall Saab doing that, went really low, then had a low BE on his way up, but still base price.

mattnz wrote:
I recall Saab doing that, went really low, then had a low BE on his way up, but still base price.

People complaining about on FB but definitely happened before

Like every good hooker, sometimes you need your comeback

https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t2116-trials-and-tribulations-of-a-nrl-fantasy-coach-2023
LONG SMOKO 2020-2022
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t783-trials-and-tribulations-of-a-nrl-fantasy-coach-2019-end-result-40th?highlight=trials++tribulations
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t626-trials-and-tribulations-of-an-nrl-fantasy-coach-2018-end-result-164th?highlight=trials++tribulations
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t420-trials-and-tribulations-of-an-nrl-fantasy-coach-2017-round-14-trades-update-08-06?highlight=trials++tribulations
https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t212-trials-and-tribulations-of-a-nrl-fantasy-coach-from-31193-to-38-overall-roller-coaster-2016-blog?highlight=trials++tribulations

The attraction for me with hammer is to play him ctr, big fan of getting out of position players in that role,

He was impressive yesterday and I root for him

I can definitely see teen scores in his future, but at the same time I think that he has the right coach and dolphins will be better/more competitive than most predicted