NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 45 - Fanatical Times

Fantasy Fantasy Transfer Window II


For those of you in this comp, you can make your second transfer this week

Are people really being sucked into Billy Smith again? Haven't we been here before?

mrbrownstone wrote:Are people really being sucked into Billy Smith again? Haven't we been here before?

Its just mattnz who's been keen so far I think.

Outside back who got a lot of wraps as a junior - off the back of his best ever performace? Just hook it into his veins

mrbrownstone wrote:Are people really being sucked into Billy Smith again? Haven't we been here before?

We said the same about Bryce Cartwright earlier in the year and look what happened.

Thinking to trade out Hammer whether he plays origin or not. Just isn't getting those 40+ scores needed at the moment.

Bethany_B wrote:

We said the same about Bryce Cartwright earlier in the year and look what happened.

Not sure it's really comparable. If you got on Carty from R1 he was 111k cheaper than Billy Smith is this week, and also had a history of scoring well in the second row. The question wasn't whether he could score fantasy points, but whether he'd get enough minutes to do so.

In contrast Smith is 361k, so priced at about 27, with a career average of 25.3 at centre, or 33.7 if you filter for non-injury games. Don't really see a path to 10 points of value.

mickspicks wrote:Thinking to trade out Hammer whether he plays origin or not. Just isn't getting those 40+ scores needed at the moment.

That's fair enough, I'm considering selling but I can wait until R13-14 to do it (13 if he makes Origin, 14 if he doesn't)

All you kents really don't need much of an excuse to party hey?!

Cheers lads

mrbrownstone wrote:

Not sure it's really comparable. If you got on Carty from R1 he was 111k cheaper than Billy Smith is this week, and also had a history of scoring well in the second row. The question wasn't whether he could score fantasy points, but whether he'd get enough minutes to do so.

In contrast Smith is 361k, so priced at about 27, with a career average of 25.3 at centre, or 33.7 if you filter for non-injury games. Don't really see a path to 10 points of value.

I think eye test is more important than past stats this year, as we've seen with guys like Walsh.

Billy Smith looked better than he ever has yesterday, ran the ball hard and got through a lot of work.

The only thing that can stop him is injury at this point.

Bethany_B wrote:

That's fair enough, I'm considering selling but I can wait until R13-14 to do it (13 if he makes Origin, 14 if he doesn't)

I think just a straight swap for drinky

mrbrownstone wrote:Are people really being sucked into Billy Smith again? Haven't we been here before?

Has never played close to this well, probably as he was always being rushed back from ACLs

Mulvy wrote:All you kents really don't need much of an excuse to party hey?!

Cheers lads

Happy birthday Mulvy!
80 is the new 70 so enjoy it mate.

mattnz wrote:

Has never played close to this well, probably as he was always being rushed back from ACLs

OK I'm going to humour you here for a moment...

How long do you expect him to be named to start and what do you expect him to average?

Bethany_B wrote:

mrbrownstone wrote:Are people really being sucked into Billy Smith again? Haven't we been here before?

We said the same about Bryce Cartwright earlier in the year and look what happened.

One difference is that Carty has been a useful fantasy buy more than once in the past. Billy Smith has barely played consecutive games before

Milchcow wrote:

One difference is that Carty has been a useful fantasy buy more than once in the past. Billy Smith has barely played consecutive games before

Yeah that's fair enough. I think this is his time to shine, but I'm also trading Soni Luke to him so it's not like I've got much to lose anyway if he does flop.

I think he'll keep that left centre spot as long as he can stay fit, with Suaali'i going to the right wing once Manu eventually moves back to right centre and Tupou gets back from injury.

Bethany_B wrote:

The only thing that can stop him is injury at this point.

That, or going back to the sort of scoring he's produced multiple times in the past

Bethany_B wrote:

The only thing that can stop him is injury at this point.

Seems fairly likely he’s going to be stopped then

my tv broke wrote:Didnt realise Billy was 360k. Didnt mind him tbh at 250/260/270 ish.

Wouldnt expect much. Maybe 30 average if he stays on the field means hes almost priced there now

Recency bias however indicates this year he will become a 60 point average player.