NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 45 - Fanatical Times

my tv broke wrote:Didnt realise Billy was 360k. Didnt mind him tbh at 250/260/270 ish.

Wouldnt expect much

When he isn't getting injured midgame, his average at centre is 36.5 (says 33.7 but he actually played wing in round 2 2022, despite being named at centre, he swapped with Momirovski).

If he averages that, he'll make 100k in three games and peak at around 500k, which is enough for me.

Bethany_B wrote:

Yeah that's fair enough. I think this is his time to shine, but I'm also trading Soni Luke to him so it's not like I've got much to lose anyway if he does flop.

I think he'll keep that left centre spot as long as he can stay fit, with Suaali'i going to the right wing once Manu eventually moves back to right centre and Tupou gets back from injury.

Bit harsh on Paulo, he's been playing well and played every game so far.
If you think they'll drop Paulo and you're going to get value out of Smith go for it I guess.

filthridden wrote:

Bit harsh on Paulo, he's been playing well and played every game so far.
If you think they'll drop Paulo and you're going to get value out of Smith go for it I guess.

Yeah Paulo's been decent, though I think at full strength they would drop him and keep Smith in, that's how much the club rates him. They've stuck with him for three ACL reconstructions.

My guess for their full strength backline is:

1. Teddy
2. Tupou
3. Smith
4. Manu
5. Suaali'i

Bethany_B wrote:

Yeah Paulo's been decent, though I think at full strength they would drop him and keep Smith in, that's how much the club rates him. They've stuck with him for three ACL reconstructions.

My guess for their full strength backline is:

1. Teddy
2. Tupou
3. Smith
4. Manu
5. Suaali'i

I still think Teddy should go to 6 in the next year or two, but for this year I'd say you're right. Paulo is a good replacement for Tupou moving in to the future.

Bethany_B wrote:
When he isn't getting injured midgame, his average at centre is 36.5 (says 33.7 but he actually played wing in round 2 2022, despite being named at centre, he swapped with Momirovski).

If he averages that, he'll make 100k in three games and peak at around 500k, which is enough for me.

Who are you trading out for him? And how many trades do you have left that you can afford to spend one on getting 100 points and $100k?

Semi-related topic not just directed at people interested in Billy Smith.
Anyone who has max traded will have less than 13 trades left after this week. Which means that even with the 8 bonus trades coming in 10 weeks time - you are now down to less trades than squad members.

And if you bring in someone like Smith who you want to trade out again - you are just confirming more of your current team into season long keepers. There's a lot of trades people are planning around getting people in and out again around origin. How many people from their current squad do people foresee will stay there for the rest of the year? Then hope none of those guys get injured

Suaalii has been worse than Paulo this year, especially defensively - made some poor reads

I watched the game & Billy Smith did play well however trading in a guy who is not base price and has played SFA games over the last few years because of serious injury is not a % move.

Yes you may make $100k but the more likely scenario is that he gets either injured or dropped.

Billy Smiths Serious Injuries
2018 ACL
2020 ACL
2021 Lisfranc
2021 Complete shoulder reconstruction
2022 ACL

Bethany_B wrote:

Yeah that's fair enough. I think this is his time to shine, but I'm also trading Soni Luke to him so it's not like I've got much to lose anyway if he does flop..

I'd hate for someone new at this game to see this as sound logic.

Even if there were unlimited trades, you would still have something to lose - that being the opportunity cost of a better selection in the event he does flop (the alternative trade for instance delivers points and cash gain).

The fact that trades are limited, means you most definitely have something to lose with a gamble

Milchcow wrote:

Who are you trading out for him? And how many trades do you have left that you can afford to spend one on getting 100 points and $100k?

Semi-related topic not just directed at people interested in Billy Smith.
Anyone who has max traded will have less than 13 trades left after this week. Which means that even with the 8 bonus trades coming in 10 weeks time - you are now down to less trades than squad members.

And if you bring in someone like Smith who you want to trade out again - you are just confirming more of your current team into season long keepers. There's a lot of trades people are planning around getting people in and out again around origin. How many people from their current squad do people foresee will stay there for the rest of the year? Then hope none of those guys get injured

I'm trading out Soni Luke for him, would have 15 left since I'm also trading Ford (to Horse) and Sloan (to Oloapu), which is not ideal but more than I had at this stage last year.

Right now (after trades this week) I have 14 guys that I plan to keep - Cook, Haas, Horse, Fifita, Cleary, Hynes, Bird, Manu, Teddy, Miller, SJ, Hosking, Cheese and Hammer.

I'm only targeting 4 more players for my final 17 (to put Cheese and Hammer at 17th and 18th man) - right now it's an EDG (Nikora/Ipap), a WFB (Edwards/Trell), as well as a MID (Yeo) and HOK (Grant) after Origin.

TLDR: Yes I have thought about what this trade means for my final 17

easytiger wrote:

I'd hate for someone new at this game to see this as sound logic.

Even if there were unlimited trades, you would still have something to lose - that being the opportunity cost of a better selection in the event he does flop (the alternative trade for instance delivers points and cash gain).

The fact that trades are limited, means you most definitely have something to lose with a gamble

The question is, who else is there? Soni Luke will bleed money quickly with that 8 in his rolling average, and I'm already planning to sell Russell to Te Whare next week so he's not an option for cashout.

Milchcow wrote:
Suaalii has been worse than Paulo this year, especially defensively - made some poor reads

Suaalii pretty overrated tbh

Potential obviously huge and he’s great for 19, but hasn’t translated yet into warranting all these wraps and accolades.

Good on him for leveraging being exceptional at private school rugby and Harry Matts junior rep RL into millions of dollars though. I expect after 2027 WC he’ll go to France or Japan and make several million more.

But yeah he’s got some work to do and shouldn’t be near rep team conversations IMO

Bethany_B wrote:

The question is, who else is there? Soni Luke will bleed money quickly with that 8 in his rolling average, and I'm already planning to sell Russell to Te Whare next week so he's not an option for cashout.

What if Billy Smith scores 8 this weekend?

wolfking wrote:

What if Billy Smith scores 8 this weekend?

What if he scores 45?

What if?!
What if I was taking a shower and I slipped on a bar of soap?


Oh my God!, I'd be killed!


We Fantasy players are a crazy breed. Half in love with death, gobbling up danger like ordinary men eat peanuts.

Am I turning you on?

What if I undo this button?

*What if I talk like this? *

What if I sing to you?
I gave my love a chicken, it had no bone.

mmm chicken

Mulvy wrote:All you kents really don't need much of an excuse to party hey?!

Cheers lads

Happy birthday bro! One of the best

Who broke milchcow?
What’s the contingency for mad cow disease?

Happy birthday mulvy, hope you didn’t catch it

Bethany_B wrote:

I think he most likely misses out game 1, and then comes in for game 2 and 3 if Ponga gets concussed again or QLD get thumped.

That said, I don't really care if he does or not, if he does play game 1 I just sell him in R13, and if not, then I hold him to R16 and sell then.

Aardvark wrote:

He's playing pretty well but I think they give Ponga first crack (provided he gets through the next couple o' weeks) and with Walsh I think he's fullback or nothing (except maybe 18th man)

my tv broke wrote:

Annoying thing is he will probably be in the squad and that might keep him out of round 13 (even if not picked in the actual team).

Happened last year with .. i think Flegler ?.. although I assume the broncos head honchos would have been annoyed about it, and hopefully wont happen again

Cheers fellow fanatics

Contrastinghobby wrote:Who broke milchcow?
What’s the contingency for mad cow disease?

Happy birthday mulvy, hope you didn’t catch it

Already had it.

I could be wrong but I feel like this is the part of the season where sideways trading shitters is not a smart play. You are either upgrading or cashing out on players with a reasonable role

Simple Aardvarks plan

Early part of season....devil may care trade moves to maximise both points and $

Mid part of the season.....hold trades where you can and try to get through the bye/SOO carnage without blowing too many points/places or trades (take calculated risks not risky risks)

End part of season....use the trades you have left to finish assembling a gun team and be able to cover injuries and restings (or make strategic moves)

Sounds easy, but hard to execute effectively

Aardvark wrote:I could be wrong but I feel like this is the part of the season where sideways trading shitters is not a smart play. You are either upgrading or cashing out on players with a reasonable role

Simple Aardvarks plan

Early part of season....devil may care trade moves to maximise both points and $

Mid part of the season.....hold trades where you can and try to get through the bye/SOO carnage without blowing too many points/places or trades (take calculated risks not risky risks)

End part of season....use the trades you have left to finish assembling a gun team and be able to cover injuries and restings (or make strategic moves)

Sounds easy, but hard to execute effectively

Yeah that's a fair point.

I could just hold Soni and hope he comes good (also covers R16 which is nice I guess - just need him to play the 50 mins he was getting before magic round instead of the 15 he got in magic round)

Can just do Sloan/Ford to Horse/Oloapu and leave it at that, then Russell to VTW next week