Milchcow wrote: Fortitude wrote:Anyone got predictions on how the last third of the year plays out with rankings etc.
I’ve had a stinker and am sitting around the 10k mark. Im banking on most people navigating byes poorly, and relying heavily on trades. Hoping that most won’t be able to trade their way back to full strength post origin.
Alot of people will be looking to bring back some biggies like Haas, yeo, grant and chin. That takes up most of the trades people have left prior to dealing with byes. Leaving only the extra 8 trades to survive the last few rounds. Those extra trades are probably enough to stop peoples team falling off a cliff.
This is how I see it going
R16
Most serious coaches have 11+ this week and probably don't need to make many trades. The biggest hurdles will be Robson and Moses getting origin callups. Turpin/Simpkin are ideal cashouts to cover hooker if you need to.
Many people won't have 3 MIDs, and not many worth trading in just for this week so that will be the most common cause of people playing short. Maybe Matterson/Hopgood if you want one. If you don't have Hynes then good time to spend a trade on him (and then hope he doesn't get recalled for origin 3)
R17
Will be tough, especially if a few of Teddy, Cook, Haas, Walsh fail to back up. This could be a heavy trading week - probably biggest trade week between now and the r20 boost.
Problem is for most it won't be worth trading out guys like Hynes, Bateman, iPap just for a week. So its a matter of if its appropriate to cash out guys like Preston or hold them for a bit
Guys like Harrison Edwards will be prime for the cutting room floor, Titans have finished their byes if you want any non origin players from there.
I think it won't be uncommon for some of the top teams to play with less than 17 players this week.
R18
Unless you are over-subscribed to Parra players, or there are a bunch of injuries, many will have this pegged as a no trade week (some will have no choice in the matter). Sharks and Tigers will have finished there byes, so any non-origin guns you want from there are prime trade in candidates 9if you want both iPap and Bateman for example), and maybe injuries will force something, but trades here will be reacting to circumstances, rather than planning something.
R19
I think a lot have decent cover here. There's a lot of very good MID/EDG available. If Hynes doesn't play game 3 then him and SJ are a halves pairing. I think most people will be OK to field a team of 11+ here, even if they have no trades left. Obviously origin selection/injuries will stuff Camo up, but hopefully everyone else can cope.
R20/21
Race time. I suspect most of the top teams will use 4 of their 8 trades straight away. Certainly by round 21 pending origin backups, and the fitness of Cleary/Bird
If you don't have Hynes, Cleary, Haas, Fifita they are probably the top 4 to bring in this week if they are fit and playing. Fifita/Cleary you may be able to wait a week pending BE/fitness.
Then its guys like Grant, Yeo, Bird (if fit), fixing up WFB. That will be a bit of pot luck whether you go for Latrell, Turbo, Edwards or stick with the likes of Bula. Probably have to pick a cheapie or 2 to fund these upgrades, so everyone will be hoping for a playable $250k player to enable final teams
For those who can't afford the best they'll be looking for guys like Cam Murray, Angus Crichton (if he ever gets a start back) Koroisau as discount options
R22.
R22 to the end
I suspect by the time R22 starts, most top teams will have a gun, or close to gun, top 17, and most of them will have finished their byes
SJ, Tohu, Haas, Cook, Preston, Robson, Hopgood, Haas, Walsh, Cook are some of the main popular players with bye remaining. A bunch of these will have been traded out/upraded in the previous couple of weeks.
A lot will only have 2-3 trades left, but they'll just sit on them and only use them for injuries, and have an 18th man good enough to cover most byes.
Injuries of 2+ weeks will use a trade, and in the final 3 weeks potentially just trading out fit players on a bye to get 3 weeks of scores rather than 2.
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