NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 61 - Picking origin reps for bye planning

I don’t even want to trade out Preston next week but I’m kinda stuck with who I can trade out, I mean one of them has to go haha

Enchanted Glossy Flamingo wrote:What are people expecting from KHaas?

300k edge forward with no more byes after this week sounds.. pretty good for a 20th/21st man

my tv broke wrote:

300k edge forward with no more byes after this week sounds.. pretty good for a 20th/21st man

Yeah assuming he’s won the spot over Stimson

Shady2K wrote:

Yeah assuming he’s won the spot over Stimson

If that is in fact the case then yes he can join next week which is lovely

Shady2K wrote:

Yeah assuming he’s won the spot over Stimson

I think he might have, at least for now.

-was named to start with Fifita two weeks back, then fifita was benched.
-the week fifita missed out, KHaas played right and Stimson left (fifitas side).

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:I think if the status quo of Oloapu playing 50 minutes at 5/8 and then 30 minutes as a ball-playing lock continues then he could turn into a keeper from this point on.

I was toying with the idea of bringing in a base price Simpkin this week and trading out Olopau next week so I could field 17 (I have Bula, Bateman, and Hynes as well) but I am starting to feel unsure about his strategy

Without the 20 point attacking play this week, he has another mid 30s score. Missed 7 tackles. I think your expectations of him scoring more than someone like Katoa or Nikorima are rather over-optimistic, let alone being keeper level as a half vs SJ, Moses, Cleary and Hynes.

my tv broke wrote:

I think he might have, at least for now.

-was named to start with Fifita two weeks back, then fifita was benched.
-the week fifita missed out, KHaas played right and Stimson left (fifitas side).

Would be a perfect downgrade for Preston next week, but how often do we get this lucky in fantasy. I can’t think of too many times

Fortitude wrote:Anyone got predictions on how the last third of the year plays out with rankings etc.

I’ve had a stinker and am sitting around the 10k mark. Im banking on most people navigating byes poorly, and relying heavily on trades. Hoping that most won’t be able to trade their way back to full strength post origin.

Alot of people will be looking to bring back some biggies like Haas, yeo, grant and chin. That takes up most of the trades people have left prior to dealing with byes. Leaving only the extra 8 trades to survive the last few rounds. Those extra trades are probably enough to stop peoples team falling off a cliff.

This is how I see it going

R16
Most serious coaches have 11+ this week and probably don't need to make many trades.  The biggest hurdles will be Robson and Moses getting origin callups. Turpin/Simpkin are ideal cashouts to cover hooker if you need to.
Many people won't have 3 MIDs, and not many worth trading in just for this week so that will be the most common cause of people playing short. Maybe Matterson/Hopgood if you want one. If you don't have Hynes then good time to spend a trade on him (and then hope he doesn't get recalled for origin 3)

R17
Will be tough, especially if a few of Teddy, Cook, Haas, Walsh fail to back up. This could be a heavy trading week - probably biggest trade week between now and the r20 boost.
Problem is for most it won't be worth trading out guys like Hynes, Bateman, iPap just for a week. So its a matter of if its appropriate to cash out guys like Preston or hold them for a bit
Guys like Harrison Edwards will be prime for the cutting room floor, Titans have finished their byes if you want any non origin players from there.
I think it won't be uncommon for some of the top teams to play with less than 17 players this week.

R18
Unless you are over-subscribed to Parra players, or there are a bunch of injuries, many will have this pegged as a no trade week (some will have no choice in the matter). Sharks and Tigers will have finished their byes, so any non-origin guns you want from there are prime trade in candidates (if you want both iPap and Bateman for example), and maybe injuries will force something, but trades here will be reacting to circumstances, rather than planning something.

R19
I think a lot have decent cover here. There's a lot of very good MID/EDG available. If Hynes doesn't play game 3 then him and SJ are a halves pairing. I think most people will be OK to field a team of 11+ here, even if they have no trades left. Obviously origin selection/injuries will stuff Camo up, but hopefully everyone else can cope.

R20/21
Race time. I suspect most of the top teams will use 4 of their 8 trades straight away. Certainly by round 21 pending origin backups, and the fitness of Cleary/Bird
If you don't have Hynes, Cleary, Haas, Fifita they are probably the top 4 to bring in this week if they are fit and playing. Fifita/Cleary you may be able to wait a week pending BE/fitness.
Then its guys like Grant, Yeo, Bird (if fit), fixing up WFB. That will be a bit of pot luck whether you go for Latrell, Turbo, Edwards or stick with the likes of Bula. Probably have to pick a cheapie or 2 to fund these upgrades, so everyone will be hoping for a playable $250k player to enable final teams
For those who can't afford the best they'll be looking for guys like Cam Murray, Angus Crichton (if he ever gets a start back) Koroisau as discount options
R22.

R22 to the end
I suspect by the time R22 starts, most top teams will have a gun, or close to gun, top 17, and most of them will have finished their byes
SJ, Tohu, Haas, Cook, Preston, Robson, Hopgood, Haas, Walsh, Cook are some of the main popular players with bye remaining. A bunch of these will have been traded out/upraded in the previous couple of weeks.
A lot will only have 2-3 trades left, but they'll just sit on them and only use them for injuries, and have an 18th man good enough to cover most byes.
Injuries of 2+ weeks will use a trade, and in the final 3 weeks potentially just trading out fit players on a bye to get 3 weeks of scores rather than 2.

mattnz wrote:

Horse isn't playing Origin.

Dammit.
I really DON'T get Fantasy do I?

Well, I still have to hold Tapine.
C'mon ya big spud. Get a meatie this weekend.

SoylentGreen wrote:

Yeah - thinking now I might just get Turpin (as much as he's "not fun") - he probably makes as much as Simpkin over the next month and I'd be looking at trading either of them to Grant post-origin anyway.

A guy who makes 60 tackles for 50 points sure isn't "fun" except in the fact that having a big fantasy score and making money is fun.

mattnz wrote:

Without the 20 point attacking play this week, he has another mid 30s score. Missed 7 tackles. I think your expectations of him scoring more than someone like Katoa or Nikorima are rather over-optimistic, let alone being keeper level as a half vs SJ, Moses, Cleary and Hynes.

The extra 15 tackles from playing LOCK certainly helped. In any case - he is likely the first one to go. Keeper in the context of this season - I did not say anything about comparing him with Cleary - he is already scoring the same if not better than I.Katoa and if he has a regular stint at LOCK that will only improve

"R20/21
Race time. I suspect most of the top teams will use 4 of their 8 trades straight away"

Milchcow wrote:
R19
I think a lot have decent cover here. There's a lot of very good MID/EDG available. If Hynes doesn't play game 3 then him and SJ are a halves pairing. I think most people will be OK to field a team of 11+ here, even if they have no trades left. Obviously origin selection/injuries will stuff Camo up, but hopefully everyone else can cope.

WFB/CTR seems to be my weakness for r19, and by this point I only want to be trading in keepers. At this stage all I have are Lemmy and Bula; Teddy, Latrell, Turbo, Edwards, Ponga, Walsh, HTF all likely unavailable and potentially not backing up the week after.

Bird might be a big in if he is back? Is CNK a final team guy? Gutho? It's pretty gross

Milchcow wrote:

A guy who makes 60 tackles for 50 points sure isn't "fun" except in the fact that having a big fantasy score and making money is fun.

Turpin has been lots of fun to own the past 2 weeks.

The Bludger#2 wrote:

Dammit.
I really DON'T get Fantasy do I?

Well, I still have to hold Tapine.
C'mon ya big spud. Get a meatie this weekend.

Can guarantee he won't be doing that. Raiders have a bye this week.

Round 19 Bird might also suffer from Simpkin-itis as well since there are a bunch of key teams on bye in round 20. I'll already have 4 out before counting rested origin players

Who do you guys have as the best season keeper from..

Preston, Drinkwater, D. Edwards, N. Butcher, I. Papali'i.

Obviously guys like Sorensen are an option

What are Cook owners doing?

Nice score last week but it just occurred he'll miss 3 of the next 5 (if picked for game 3) so hes actually a good candidate to go this week as per original plan.

Maybe flick him and hold Carty a bit longer is the move

Edit lol actually as my only hooker that presents a problem

RandomSil wrote:Who do you guys have as the best season keeper from..

Preston, Drinkwater, D. Edwards, N. Butcher, I. Papali'i.

Obviously guys like Sorensen are an option

Drinkwater or Edwards based on the position being pretty meh.

There's plenty of equal/better options than the other 3 in their positions.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:
Oh wow yeah Simpkin would just be adding to a dicey week for you next week. I mean just reading it made me stressed

Yep, really gonna be a stressful origin watch from an injury and high involvement point of view haha