NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 62 - Pie round chaos (please don't banh mi for that pun)

standard-issue wrote:

I had to Google purposively, I have learnt something today

Yep, Comp closer this year, less chance of players being rested.

Maybe I'm seeing things the way that suit me?  My rank is shit this year but have 10 trades after this Round, then add the extra 8, so my strategy/hope will be to make up mass rankings in the last few Rounds.  It's all new this year, who knows.  Will be VERY interesting to see how it plays out.

My gut feel is there will be a shit tonne of teams that fall off a cliff in the last few Rounds like nothing we have seen before.

That would be fecking right - tell me the day after I traded you out of Fantasy Fantasy - you are a cruel mistress Standard Issue!

easytiger wrote:

The gaining ground thing is interesting.
Out of curiosity, are you gaining ground on say the top 100? I.e. making inroads on comparative total points?
Or is a fair chunk of gaining ground on teams that focus on H2H.

It's still relevant in either circumstance, and 20k down to 1800 is great. Just curious as to what you are benchmarking against

Its an interesting point. You pass a lot of h2h teams during byes once you're in the 500s/1000s/upwards i think

Had a look at my team, for rounds 8, 12, and 15. While i've been gaining ranks overall, the gap to 100th place (at time of those roudns) hasn't shortened by a huge amount, and 1st is widening the gap.

So while I've moved up 2300 ranks in that time, i'm not really making much of a dent on teams pushing into the top 100
The MTBs

Round 8 - Overall Rank: 3903
Points difference to:
1st: 497
100th: 293

Round 12 - Overall Rank: 1247
Points difference to:
1st: 500
100th: 247

Round 15 - Overall Rank: 623
Points difference to:
1st: 663
100th: 215


Little trick, if you add &round_id=8 (or whatever round number), you get a snapshot of your team (or any team) to that round.

EG the MTBS (and the top 100) at end of round 8 - https://footystatistics.com/team_analyser.php?team_id=68004&round_id=8

easytiger wrote:

The gaining ground thing is interesting.
Out of curiosity, are you gaining ground on say the top 100? I.e. making inroads on comparative total points?
Or is a fair chunk of gaining ground on teams that focus on H2H.

It's still relevant in either circumstance, and 20k down to 1800 is great. Just curious as to what you are benchmarking against

Typically benchmarking against average of top 1,000 as par. Beating it by quite a bit almost every week.

WT Winfield wrote:

Hey mate, I would hold the trade with only 3 left and look to trade Talau to Klees next week. Although you would be short a WFB still unless Dunster plays. Next week's problem imo.

Hynes, IPap, Bateman and Bula on the bye next week and I'd hold all 4 unless there's an injury. Some origin players to back-up and would rather spend one of my last trades on an injured gun to fill whichever position (WFB, CTR, EDG depending..). Wouldn't add Simpkin into the mix too. Not sure if Fainu's worth it at this point, may not even start again.

Legend thanks for the advice. I think that's what I will go with.

Contrastinghobby wrote:

Welcome

Currently you are playing 15 next week with the following on byes Hynes,Bateman,Ipap,Talau,Bula,Oloapu
With 3 trades left I would probably avoid making it 14 players next week so would rule Simpkin out for now (Maybe grab in rd 18)

Fainu may or may not be a good pick, assuming he plays this and next week for a red dot in dunster that is probably worth it if you think he will continue to start on the edge. Would you still be happy with him off the bench the next 2 weeks as well worst case?
Some might be worried about his job security so trust your judgement on that

I would prefer KHaas as a cashout next week (if he starts) but I don't need another scorer this week either so its your call

Full strength whatever you do they are probably depth anyways so dont stress over it

Good luck

Thanks for the advice. K. Haas passes the eye test for me. He looked good last round so I may just hold it until then.

TU:Katoa and Moses to Matterson and Guth
TD:Katoa and Tapine to Matterson and NAS

mattnz wrote:

Typically benchmarking against average of top 1,000 as par. Beating it by quite a bit almost every week.

You're like mine (only checked comparison to 100th, cbf), small inroads but not significant

Subguns points dif to 100th place at ends of rounds:

Round 8: 512pts
Round 12: 427pts
Round 15: 408pts

123456qwerty wrote:

Legend thanks for the advice. I think that's what I will go with.

No worries mate The who posted above me is ranked #1 though, so maybe the Dunster to Fainu trade is worth more consideration if he does start this week. I'd try to be conservative though with Talau and Oloapu using 2 of the 3 trades next week to field 16 and hoping that Dunster can sneak in for 17.

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

standard-issue wrote:

I had to Google purposively, I have learnt something today

Yep, Comp closer this year, less chance of players being rested.

Maybe I'm seeing things the way that suit me?  My rank is shit this year but have 10 trades after this Round, then add the extra 8, so my strategy/hope will be to make up mass rankings in the last few Rounds.  It's all new this year, who knows.  Will be VERY interesting to see how it plays out.

My gut feel is there will be a shit tonne of teams that fall off a cliff in the last few Rounds like nothing we have seen before.

That would be fecking right - tell me the day after I traded you out of Fantasy Fantasy - you are a cruel mistress Standard Issue!

Ahh man, I am so sorry for you and anyone who had me this year!!!

I got out to 34500 about Round 6-horrible stuff. Back in to around the 7000 mark. Actually really enjoying the crawling recovery like a lot of Fanatics this year.

WT Winfield wrote:

No worries mate The who posted above me is ranked #1 though, so maybe the Dunster to Fainu trade is worth more consideration if he does start this week. I'd try to be conservative though with Talau and Oloapu using 2 of the 3 trades next week to field 16 and hoping that Dunster can sneak in for 17.

I think given the place and its his first year I would be more conservative and wait as well
Both weeks he will be short so might as well wait a week and have more choice
Maybe 1-2 trades next week with with an eye on rd19 might be the play and save the last for injuries.
It will work itself out. it always does

my tv broke wrote:

You're like mine (only checked comparison to 100th, cbf), small inroads but not significant

Subguns points dif to 100th place at ends of rounds:

Round 8: 512pts
Round 12: 427pts
Round 15: 408pts

Interesting thanks, pretty happy to be making up any ground on 100th place after a disastrous start.

Nice to know you would have been competitive if in the top 1,000 earlier.

mattnz wrote:

Targeting Cleary and Fifita. Have $992k cash to get them for very average cows with my remaining 2 trades.

Then when injuries come, I can pick up any other underpriced guns in straight swaps.

Truth be told you do not have any trades left until r20 MattNZ do you? They were all burned this week to field 13 players?

my tv broke wrote:

Its an interesting point. You pass a lot of h2h teams during byes once you're in the 500s/1000s/upwards i think

Had a look at my team, for rounds 8, 12, and 15. While i've been gaining ranks overall, the gap to 100th place (at time of those roudns) hasn't shortened by a huge amount, and 1st is widening the gap.

So while I've moved up 2300 ranks in that time, i'm not really making much of a dent on teams pushing into the top 100
The MTBs

Round 8 - Overall Rank: 3903
Points difference to:
1st: 497
100th: 293

Round 12 - Overall Rank: 1247
Points difference to:
1st: 500
100th: 247

Round 15 - Overall Rank: 623
Points difference to:
1st: 663
100th: 215


Little trick, if you add &round_id=8 (or whatever round number), you get a snapshot of your team (or any team) to that round.

EG the MTBS (and the top 100) at end of round 8 - https://footystatistics.com/team_analyser.php?team_id=68004&round_id=8

Nice!
Inroads are inroads and every chance you're somewhere in the top hundy by season end (not that you need me to tell you).

Originally I used to just track my rank, which had its place.
The last couple of years I tend to keep a relative points track vs 1, 100, 200, 500, 1000 - It just feels like it offers more perspective and situational awareness - which sometimes may (or may not) help me not to overplay my hand.

That being said, I've 6 trades left going into this week and making 4 haha (totally overpaying my hands). I'd rather go hard and hope the gods pass me over than to die wondering

my tv broke wrote:

You're like mine (only checked comparison to 100th, cbf), small inroads but not significant

Subguns points dif to 100th place at ends of rounds:

Round 8: 512pts
Round 12: 427pts
Round 15: 408pts

Well done Matt - you're traveling well

A repeat of R2- R5 anyone?

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:

Truth be told you do not have any traded left until r20 MattNZ do you? They were all burned this week to field 13 players?

No, I had 3 at the start of the round, using 1 to have 13 playing, so have 2 remaining.

Contrastinghobby wrote:

I think given the place and its his first year I would be more conservative and wait as well
Both weeks he will be short so might as well wait a week and have more choice
Maybe 1-2 trades next week with with an eye on rd19 might be the play and save the last for injuries.
It will work itself out. it always does

Thanks for the advice. Think I'll hold them for next week and assess then. Hopefully Haas starts and then maybe Simpkin in r18 to make some cash could be good. Looking to get Haas, Yeo, Murray and Cleary in post origin if I can.

The other thing I was going to add;
There doesn't feel like much point benchmarking against Booze right now, he's such an overachieving outlier right now (said with aroha).

Maybe I should just be benchmarking second place

I think Booze is cheating tbh

Theres gotta be an investigation

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:A repeat of R2- R5 anyone?

Rounds 2 to 5 was injuries to - Cheese, Ponga, Talau, Harris (as Captain), NAS, Douehi, Cotter, plus Trindall. Without the injuries I would have been top 1,000 and in the hunt. Instead couldn't field 17 each week, had low scores and dropped to 20k rank. Look what happens to my team when it isn't getting so many injuries that I couldn't trade them out fast enough.