NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 73 - 98% Stand and Applaud

Enchanted Glossy Flamingo wrote:

If you had supernatural prescience or the back to the future almanac and knew that Drinkwater was going to outscore Cleary for the rest of the year it would still be the wrong decision.

Bethany_B wrote:Am I crazy to be considering buying Drinky at this late stage and fading Cleary?

Reasons for:

* The Cowboys are absolutely rolling everything in front of them, with all of their attack going through him
* The Cowboys draw is still very good, but they're fighting for a top 8 spot so he won't take it easy
* I can sell Robson to him in a single trade, while getting Cleary would require two (only have 4 left so this matters)
* He would be my only Cowboy so his bye wouldn't affect me too much

Reasons against:

* WFB at 850k so big risk of regression
* Has a bye left while Cleary does not
* Low floor unlike Cleary

Basically it's Cleary vs Drinky + a trade

Shady2K wrote:

Please don’t break another WFB and stick to Cleary and Walsh

On behalf of all Drinky day ones

Bethany_B wrote:Am I crazy to be considering buying Drinky at this late stage and fading Cleary?

Reasons for:

* The Cowboys are absolutely rolling everything in front of them, with all of their attack going through him
* The Cowboys draw is still very good, but they're fighting for a top 8 spot so he won't take it easy
* I can sell Robson to him in a single trade, while getting Cleary would require two (only have 4 left so this matters)
* He would be my only Cowboy so his bye wouldn't affect me too much

Reasons against:

* WFB at 850k so big risk of regression
* Has a bye left while Cleary does not
* Low floor unlike Cleary

Basically it's Cleary vs Drinky + a trade

Bethany_B wrote:Am I crazy to be considering buying Drinky at this late stage and fading Cleary?

Reasons for:

* The Cowboys are absolutely rolling everything in front of them, with all of their attack going through him
* The Cowboys draw is still very good, but they're fighting for a top 8 spot so he won't take it easy
* I can sell Robson to him in a single trade, while getting Cleary would require two (only have 4 left so this matters)
* He would be my only Cowboy so his bye wouldn't affect me too much

Reasons against:

* WFB at 850k so big risk of regression
* Has a bye left while Cleary does not
* Low floor unlike Cleary

Basically it's Cleary vs Drinky + a trade

Bethany_B wrote:

Explain how please

Aardvark wrote:

It's a total Hail Mary.

Basically you are betting on an 'in form' WFB beating one of the top two fantasy players over 6 rounds (actually 5 rounds but you get someone elses points so it's 6)

If you asked me would DCE, Yeo or SJ beat Cleary over the last 6 rounds to save one of your remaining trades then I would say it's probably worth a punt.

As good as Drinkwater is going he's not Tommy T in 2021

Enchanted Glossy Flamingo wrote:

Trying not to do a dennis denuto "its the vibe of the thing" but you're comparing an in-form WFB with a guy who has been the consistently best fantasy scoring individual and captain over a long period of time. I would be terrified to be without Cleary for the rest of the year. Drinky might be on a hot streak but I feel like he will still be largely interchangeable with the other gun WFBs in the run home.

Ladder:

Bethany_B wrote:

Fantasy this year is all vibes, and at this end of the year short term runs are more important than season-long form.

mickspicks wrote:

Fantasy guns seemingly rising to the top right now. Cleary is up the top. You'd be mad not to have him imo.

Bethany_B wrote:Am I crazy to be considering buying Drinky at this late stage and fading Cleary?

Reasons for:

* The Cowboys are absolutely rolling everything in front of them, with all of their attack going through him
* The Cowboys draw is still very good, but they're fighting for a top 8 spot so he won't take it easy
* I can sell Robson to him in a single trade, while getting Cleary would require two (only have 4 left so this matters)
* He would be my only Cowboy so his bye wouldn't affect me too much

Reasons against:

* WFB at 850k so big risk of regression
* Has a bye left while Cleary does not
* Low floor unlike Cleary

Basically it's Cleary vs Drinky + a trade

GarethEllisismyDad wrote:

to answer the question yes you would be

those cons are the most important factors, especially the bye

2 trades is a significant factor, but not getting cleary is too much of a risk imo

Milchcow wrote:
In the monthly, I am ranked 10th - 41 points behind first place, but only 12 points behind 3rd (and a $250 NRL shop voucher) 1st has a bit of a gap to 2nd, but after that its pretty crowded near the top, and anyone could gain or lose a bunch of places with a few extra points

Should I go POD captain option, in the hope that Hynes and Cleary both fail to fire, and hope I can pick someone to banner and catapult me to the top.
I'd pretty much use one of my remaining trades to get in a captaincy option. My odds of winning something in the monthly are good enough to risk a slightly worse overall rank if it doesn't come off. Certainly not going to win any prizes for overall.

So who is the best player not Cleary or Hynes to captain this week?
DCE vs Dragons? Give Drinky a shot vs Titans? Give one of the Dolphins a shot vs the Bulldogs (Hammer? Legitimately captain Isaako)?

If I just stick with Hynes/Cleary and everything else goes well, i could sneak into 2nd/3rd but there's a bunch of people to overtake.

ytsb and snatch also in with a shout at a prize. How are you guys going to play it?

the_great_wobbler wrote:

I may have a fairly good idea of 2nd places intentions. . . use all 4 remaining trades plus 200k bank to try and win something. Probably Captain Cleary and back team to be better than 1sts.

Snatchpato wrote:Beth if you want to punt against Cleary to save a trade, I don't think Drinky is the play (especially with your WFB history).

I'd be betting on DCE/Munster personally, leaning the former but I know you love Munny.

Snatchpato wrote:With Garrick's dubious CTR DPP being awarded, I now find myself with a surplus of CTRs and WFBs.

CTR: Lomax, Manu, Garrick, Lemuelu, Kris
WFB: Teddy, Meaney, Ponga, Manu, Garrick, Kris, Bula (getting traded this week)

With all of this cattle, I feel like I can move Manu on with Bula to facilitate Cleary. Trading them both out would leave me with

CTR: Lomax + Lemuelu
WFB: Teddy, Meaney, Garrick
INT: Ponga
RES: Kris

It would mean I can run Cleary/Hynes/SJ in the halves, with Ponga as crazy backup (not to mention Hands). 

What do you guys think? Bula + Manu + 296k gets me Cleary + 601k. I could either spend the 601k on an underpriced middy, or look to cashout to keep some cash for a future (injury) trade.