NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 81 - Can the last green dot please turn off the lights

I'm still mad I captained Hoopgood in R3. Silly in hindsight.

Things have obviously slowed down so here are some stats that I've recorded (over time) for positional averages to save y'all some planning time, so save this somewhere:

Have kept stats for top 6 scorers per position since 2019, and here are the below averages per position (excluding 2021 as that is extremely outlier and skews the averages e.g. Cleary averaging 92.8 and Turbo averaging 83.8 haha)

Averages 2019-2023 (excluding 2021)
HOK: 56.1
MID: 58.1
EDG: 57.3
HLF: 59.6
CTR: 46.4
WFB: 52.5

From these averages, they basically mean if you have a player around this average in your team (particularly early on) then they're at 'keeper' status. Just hold onto them and don't panic trade

Lots have noted comparisons from '22 to '23 particularly around HOK being worse, WFB having more variance, and CTRs having huge scores. But here are some actual numbers behind it (top 6 scorers):

HOK: 55.4 (22) v 50.15 (23) = HOK overall is less dominant
MID: 58.7 (22) v 60.2 (23) = more or less the same
EDG: 54.35 (22) v 55.75 (23) = more or less the same
HLF: 59.7 (22) v 64.45 (23) = HLF is more dominant
CTR: 46.6 (22) v 48.4 (23) = more or less the same
WFB: 54.5 (22) v 51.3 (23) = WFB overall is less dominant (though this becomes more or less the same if you take out Hynes from the '22 WFB department as he averaged 69.1 in '22 to skew this. The second highest WFB average in '22 was Tedesco at 54.3 which equals the highest WFB '23 average which was Mitchell at 54.3 also)

If you want to view the raw top 6 scorers per position to draw your own conclusions, see image below (blue highlight just means they ave over 60). Also interesting to note which players have dominated over time, e.g. DCE always in top 4 HLF or Tedesco a top 3 WFB every year until this year (6th). I've only included players who have a large enough sample size e.g. didn't include Faalogo who averaged 51 from 1 game:

Top 6 ave per position:

Missing Hosking in the first half and Drinkwater in the second half definitely didn’t help my prospects. I finished the season with 3 trades which was more due to good luck with injuries and a little bit of planning. Tried my best to cutdown on sideways trading and let the guys I chose do their job unless dropped/injured.

plenty of hindsight for me, I think the rage trading kneejerk reactions got the better of me this season.
I should have held onto Boyd and Preston longer, and I never should have gotten Sloan.
I was ranked in the 500s in round 6, and that's where I kinda stayed all season

finshed on 569

Shady2K wrote:Things have obviously slowed down so here are some stats that I've recorded (over time) for positional averages to save y'all some planning time, so save this somewhere:

Have kept stats for top 6 scorers per position since 2019, and here are the below averages per position (excluding 2021 as that is extremely outlier and skews the averages e.g. Cleary averaging 92.8 and Turbo averaging 83.8 haha)

Averages 2019-2023 (excluding 2021)
HOK: 56.1
MID: 58.1
EDG: 57.3
HLF: 59.6
CTR: 46.4
WFB: 52.5

From these averages, they basically mean if you have a player around this average in your team (particularly early on) then they're at 'keeper' status. Just hold onto them and don't panic trade

Lots have noted comparisons from '22 to '23 particularly around HOK being worse, WFB having more variance, and CTRs having huge scores. But here are some actual numbers behind it (top 6 scorers):

HOK: 55.4 (22) v 50.15 (23) = HOK overall is less dominant
MID: 58.7 (22) v 60.2 (23) = more or less the same
EDG: 54.35 (22) v 55.75 (23) = more or less the same
HLF: 59.7 (22) v 64.45 (23) = HLF is more dominant
CTR: 46.6 (22) v 48.4 (23) = more or less the same
WFB: 54.5 (22) v 51.3 (23) = WFB overall is less dominant (though this becomes more or less the same if you take out Hynes from the '22 WFB department as he averaged 69.1 in '22 to skew this. The second highest WFB average in '22 was Tedesco at 54.3 which equals the highest WFB '23 average which was Mitchell at 54.3 also)

If you want to view the raw top 6 scorers per position to draw your own conclusions, see image below (blue highlight just means they ave over 60). Also interesting to note which players have dominated over time, e.g. DCE always in top 4 HLF or Tedesco a top 3 WFB every year until this year (6th). I've only included players who have a large enough sample size e.g. didn't include Faalogo who averaged 51 from 1 game:

Top 6 ave per position:

Nice analysis @Shady2K

I think there was a definite NRL trend this year to get it to the edges quicker (not sure what caused it) which can be seen in HOK and CTR averages noting that last year’s top 3 CTRs are all inflated from OOP stints (Burton full time half, Aitken full time EDG and Manu FB over origin) and this year’s top 3 CTRs are all genuine CTRs. Last year’s average tackles was 9 of top 10 hookers in comparison to this year being 7 of top 10 (but 9th and 10th Brailey and Lussick who only played 5 games)

Hooker tackle numbers potentially be something to do with marker defence and also a lot more big min locks this year (JDB, Horse, Hopgood)

Useless stats perhaps, but I thought this was interesting. Who I captained vs the highest scorer in my team that week:

R1: Cleary (61) v Hopgood (82)
R2: Cleary (37) v Hopgood (85)
R3: Hopgood (35) v Haas (65)
R4: Cleary (78) - highest scorer that week
R5: Cleary (80) vs SJ (89)
R6: Cleary (100) - highest scorer that week
R7: Cleary (57) vs Haas (66)
R8: Cleary (64) vs Boyd (74)
R9: Cleary (65) vs Lem (93)
R10: Cleary (92) - highest scorer that week
R11: Cleary (79) vs Haas (86)
R12: Cleary (106) - highest scorer that week
R13: SJ (39) vs Tapine (75)
R14: Cleary (17) vs SJ (95)
R15: Haas (93) - highest scorer that week
R16: Hynes (88) vs Manu (99)
R17: SJ (71) - highest scorer that week
R18: Hynes (94) - highest scorer that week
R19: Hynes (82) - highest scorer that week
R20: Hynes (61) vs SJ (82)
R21: Hynes (59) vs Teddy (87)
R22: Cleary (101) - highest scorer that week
R23: Cleary 91 vs SJ (96)
R24: Cleary 63 vs DCE (88)
R25: Cleary (63) vs Hynes (90)
R26: Cleary (83) vs DCE (106)
R27: DCE (98) - highest scorer that week

So I got the highest scorer 10 times out of 27 - 37% of the time. That seems roughly about right I guess? I can't imagine you'd do much better trying to play captain roulette. Can anyone beat that (no doubt someone can)?

The only ones I regret in hindsight are captaining Hopgood in R3 based on two games and not captaining DCE last round when I had the C on him 5 minutes before lockout and chickened out.

Hynes and Cleary both unavailable R3, so most people went somewhat rogue for captaincy choice that week, depending on who you owned.

And assuming you never captain guys like Lemuelu, most of the time captaincy choices don't cost more than 10 points, unless your captain gets injured (eg Cleary's 17)
Its just a few weeks where your guy gets 50-60 and the other viable options get 100 that captaincy choice really stings

Obbeats wrote:How does pricing work for the start of next year? Do prices roll over from the end of this year with a handful of manual changes for certain players? Or are starting prices based on yearly averages?

Here's my annual very early next year watchlist obviously keeping in mind manual changes will likely occur and magic number might be different (but that just changes formula)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dOmgh1MD1hy5VtvM2TrZeqwSIulQxPQxTWHAnCtu3ZI/edit?usp=sharing

Key points:
CTR fucking shit again
Raiders should have a cheapie somewhere in backline with Wighton & Croker gone
A few players featuring at the top of list just waiting for an opportunity to strike (Hutchison, Curran)
Big MIDs yet again (the big MIDs this year could be good again with early season/Origin low mins - JDB/Horse/Haas)
Horse/Kris suspensions could open up a trap or a gem in the early rounds

A 50/50 I would like to have again is when Preston was a late out in Rd21 and I had Nikora (718k) and Haumole (621k) to choose from as a replacement. I went Nikora based on the Sharks being a more in form team at the time I think.

Haumole scored 419 points to Nikoras 307. I also clearly remember needing the 100k or so to make some great trades the following week. So it snowballed somewhat. 

Great game this is

A RD27 score of 507 saw me sliding to 145th overall and 17th in the FOG so will remain in League 2 next year

Ignore the bald, bitter cunts Booze, you played the season perfect but at the same time so did Beaver's.

I enjoyed being more active on here this year and look forward to next year already.

For now, it's time to get stuck into FPL. See you's in early 2024

Camo123 wrote:

Here's my annual very early next year watchlist obviously keeping in mind manual changes will likely occur and magic number might be different (but that just changes formula)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dOmgh1MD1hy5VtvM2TrZeqwSIulQxPQxTWHAnCtu3ZI/edit?usp=sharing

Key points:
CTR fucking shit again
Raiders should have a cheapie somewhere in backline with Wighton & Croker gone
A few players featuring at the top of list just waiting for an opportunity to strike (Hutchison, Curran)
Big MIDs yet again (the big MIDs this year could be good again with early season/Origin low mins - JDB/Horse/Haas)
Horse/Kris suspensions could open up a trap or a gem in the early rounds

Great list. Lots of clear targets if TLT doesn’t have major curveballs. Suspect everyone will start with Cleary, Api, Lane, and Roosters edges (Angus Sitili and Wong all have upside depending who gets picked)

Someone I have on my list is Sivo. Low year 32 but previous years 40 average, next year is second year back from ACL which is historically back to regular performance

Fantasy site is showing me as 229th, but it's equal 228th for the record. I shouldn't be penalised for registering my team late

Not many regrets. Played captain roulette too often in the first half of the season. Last few trades were pretty shit, starting with Preston's late out and choosing Garrick over Haumole last minute. I blame the dickheads for giving Garrick CTR, presumably for an under-the-table payoff. Then I traded Manu after the shit score due to too many CTRs and brought him back for a shit score and a 0.

Final trade of Teddy to Nutcher in Rd 26 cost me a decent amount of points overall, but felt it had to be done for the Eliminator. Can sleep easier that I jagged the win there, otherwise it would've haunted me for awhile.

Goal was top 2k in the beginning, then changed to top 1k when I pitched a tent there from Rd 12-20. Saving trades over the byes and just aiming for guns post-origin led to a nice charge from Rd 21-25 and then top 500 and 250 became the goal.

Rd 26 didn't exactly go as planned, dropping from 270th to 298th with a full team and then carnage for the final round had me thinking top 400 would have to suffice.. The carnage struck others harder though and somehow I gained 70 places with 13 including IPap 23, Bula 16, Drink 12 and Sandon 5. VTW returning with a 51 was nice bonus though.

All in all, a great season and will be hard to top, so I might ride off into the sunset and retire again. Will see how I feel an hour before kickoff next year

Haha I’m a bit the same WT, there is no way in hell I’m ever beating a final rank of 160. Everything that could have gone right went right this year for me, very few injuries/suspensions and cows and trade ins for the most part did their jobs. Was able to save bucketloads of trades and held them for dear life.

I’m definitely not at the level of some of the legends here so happy to have posted a decent rank this year and will celebrate in style

Finished ranked 2653 which was my best rank for the year so can't complain, was 65972 after round 2!

Thanks for all the great advice, theorys, shitposting, buys/byes, good oil and friendly banter here again this year it was another fun ride.

Well done to Booze on a great year, we all were right behind you the final rounds but it wasnt to be, bad luck and restings did not go your way last round.

See you again next year. Up the Wahs!! SJ for Dally M!

Congrats to all the fanatics that had great seasons, especially Booze!

I finished ranked 635th, a bit disappointing after being locked in the top 200 the last 5 years but at least there is always next year.
Thanks to everyone that contributed to all the great analysis and banter this year. I wasn't able to post as much as I would've liked but was still very active following along in the background.

Fraser wrote:Congrats to all the fanatics that had great seasons, especially Booze!

I finished ranked 635th, a bit disappointing after being locked in the top 200 the last 5 years but at least there is always next year.
Thanks to everyone that contributed to all the great analysis and banter this year. I wasn't able to post as much as I would've liked but was still very active following along in the background.

amazing track record!

Ando wrote:A RD27 score of 507 saw me sliding to 145th overall and 17th in the FOG so will remain in League 2 next year

Ignore the bald, bitter cunts Booze, you played the season perfect but at the same time so did Beaver's.

I enjoyed being more active on here this year and look forward to next year already.

For now, it's time to get stuck into FPL. See you's in early 2024

You had an incredible year, just unlucky to be undone by a cataclysm of outs at the end.
You're going to the top of my watchlist for Fantasy Fantasy next year (as an undervalued elite keeper)

mrbrownstone wrote:Useless stats perhaps, but I thought this was interesting. Who I captained vs the highest scorer in my team that week:


So I got the highest scorer 10 times out of 27 - 37% of the time. That seems roughly about right I guess? I can't imagine you'd do much better trying to play captain roulette. Can anyone beat that (no doubt someone can)?

The only ones I regret in hindsight are captaining Hopgood in R3 based on two games and not captaining DCE last round when I had the C on him 5 minutes before lockout and chickened out.

I went through and did this out of curiosity (not that I believe it's possible to get even close to picking the right Captain from your team consistently each week);

My correct Captaincy percentage: 30%

Although I'd more break it into:
Won the C lottery: 26%
No discernable difference: 19% (i.e. five or less points in it)
Lost, please try again: 56%


I used 6 Captains over the season:
Cleary (15)
Hynes (4)
Grant (2)
Haas (2)
JDB (2)
Hopgood (1)

Of the Cleary captaincies, he was the correct call (7/15) 47% of the time with an additional 2 times where he was 5 or less points than the highest player

So, captaining Cleary definitely improved my odds of getting it right.
So much so, that I ran 1/12 of the other Captains (with Grant the only correct one scoring 70, but only five points better than Haas who scored 65)


Overall my Captaincy average was 73.9 which incidentally matched the highest averaging player of the season (Nicho Hynes 73.9), so can't be unhappy with that.
It was also dragged down from 76.0 by Cleary's injury affected 17 pointer in R14

If I had've got the Captaincy right every time, it would've made for a 85.7 average, or the equivalent of 319 points across the season.


319 points seems a lot, but to put it into context;

I had thought the Storm wouldn't make the top 2, and so would very likely need to play full strength over the last stanza of the season.
My rank gave me an outside chance at some prizes (not first prize), so thought I would roll the dice on Munster over DCE - figuring at worst they might be about 5 points apart in average.
That single trade error cost 216 points over the last 4 weeks (or the equivalent of nailing the correct Captaincy call on 19 consecutive weeks) - the difference between 24th and 7th.



So, in summary, while it's great to get Captaincy right, IMO it's more important not to get it wrong (i.e. you're mostly better off playing the low risk popular options).

Even seemingly minor trade decisions over a short term period can have a much bigger impact.

Fraser wrote:Congrats to all the fanatics that had great seasons, especially Booze!

I finished ranked 635th, a bit disappointing after being locked in the top 200 the last 5 years but at least there is always next year.
Thanks to everyone that contributed to all the great analysis and banter this year. I wasn't able to post as much as I would've liked but was still very active following along in the backgound.

Incredible consistency mate, well done.

270 for me, really happy with that and my main regret was being too proud to bring Hopgood back in.

Over to FPL now, enjoy some finals footy and get ready for another season!

Cheers as always to the forum for the enjoyment and banter.

Up the wahs!

Marzhew being the highest averaging WFB to play 20+ games this year was something I didn’t expect