NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 82 - Baggie Time

my tv broke wrote:

Aardvark wrote:Just here waiting on the Rabbits21 draw reaction

Came here to make this post.

2024 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
EASIEST TO HARDEST
FOX LEAGUE

SHARKS
ROOSTERS
KNIGHTS
COWBOYS
WARRIORS
RAIDERS
DRAGONS
SEA EAGLES
WESTS TIGERS
BRONCOS
EELS
DOLPHINS
PANTHERS
STORM
BULLDOGS
TITANS
RABBITOHS

It's about time the Rabbits had a tough draw after they were gifted a route to the top 4 last year.

No Worries wrote:

2024 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
EASIEST TO HARDEST
FOX LEAGUE

SHARKS
ROOSTERS
KNIGHTS
COWBOYS
WARRIORS
RAIDERS
DRAGONS
SEA EAGLES
WESTS TIGERS
BRONCOS
EELS
DOLPHINS
PANTHERS
STORM
BULLDOGS
TITANS
RABBITOHS

Don’t start me. Mind you it’s nothing new to us we often get one of the hardest draws whilst the Sharks and Rorters have it piss easy! Not much can be done about it quite obvious Politis pulled a few strings to make sure they got such a favourable run it’s been happening for years…… same at the judiciary! Same when Atkins is reffing us too…..

Oh well backs against the wall we will fight hard we are used to having such a hard draw as I said! We will have to overcome it! Gonna be very hard to make top 4 if we do I’ll be overcome with emotion but it’s a big mountain to climb.

No Sunday arvo game at all either at home and only 1 for the year in Canberra that’s bullshit.

Anyway no excuses for the Rorters I expect them to be top 2 with that draw! Anything less is a failure!

Play Penrith, Broncos, Storm, Rorters and Sharks all twice do Souths.

Isn’t strength of schedule based on last years finish?

So unless the exact same 8 teams make the finals again - which they never do - it’s wrong

Like who cares?

Plus I have this hunch you might have to beat the hard teams in the finals anyway to win the comp.

Souths always the victims. It’s the basis on their existence. In their DNA

If Souths had finished top eight last year they wouldn't have so many top eight sides to play this year.

robelgordo wrote:Isn’t strength of schedule based on last years finish?

So unless the exact same 8 teams make the finals again - which they never do - it’s wrong

Like who cares?

Plus I have this hunch you might have to beat the hard teams in the finals anyway to win the comp.

Souths always the victims. It’s the basis on their existence. In their DNA

Does the strength of schedule consider Dragons an easy matchup

We were the only team Souths beat at home* after mid-May, so it’s pretty easy

*where “Home” = Cairns

robelgordo wrote:Isn’t strength of schedule based on last years finish?

So unless the exact same 8 teams make the finals again - which they never do - it’s wrong

Like who cares?

Plus I have this hunch you might have to beat the hard teams in the finals anyway to win the comp.

Souths always the victims. It’s the basis on their existence. In their DNA

I think it's based on whatever they want. interstate travel, short turn arounds, home games, run into the finals.

That said how could the Broncos draw be any easier ??
and will Walters be resting stars on mass before the final ?

I think everyone is missing the key point of that Strength of Schedule.

Tigers are 9th, all is right in the world

robelgordo wrote:Isn’t strength of schedule based on last years finish?

So unless the exact same 8 teams make the finals again - which they never do - it’s wrong

Like who cares?

Plus I have this hunch you might have to beat the hard teams in the finals anyway to win the comp.

Souths always the victims. It’s the basis on their existence. In their DNA

It would be interesting to see retrospectively what the strength of schedule was last year.
Originally based on '22 standings, Canberra had by far the easiest, the Broncos the hardest.

Which leads into a next point: Broncos had "the hardest" draw but were grand finalists... if you're good enough, you're good enough
No point blaming the draw (unless you're Irish and it's the RWC)

Well yeah I imagine Warriors and Knights were "easy"

It's just so simplistic.

For example, the Tigers have been absolutely dudded by that bye schedule - they are getting 1 midseason break when half the teams get 3! - and it doesn't even seem to factor in these calculations.

If I was a Souths fan I'd be more worried about losing 7 in a row at home in Sydney. Obviously not standing and applauding enough.

No Worries wrote:

2024 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
EASIEST TO HARDEST
FOX LEAGUE

SHARKS
ROOSTERS
KNIGHTS
COWBOYS
WARRIORS
RAIDERS
DRAGONS
SEA EAGLES
WESTS TIGERS
BRONCOS
EELS
DOLPHINS
PANTHERS
STORM
BULLDOGS
TITANS
RABBITOHS

Of course Rabbitohs have the hardest schedule, they don't get to play the worst team in the comp

Rabbits21 wrote:
Don’t start me. Mind you it’s nothing new to us we often get one of the hardest draws whilst the Sharks and Rorters have it piss easy! Not much can be done about it quite obvious Politis pulled a few strings to make sure they got such a favourable run it’s been happening for years…… same at the judiciary! Same when Atkins is reffing us too…..

Oh well backs against the wall we will fight hard we are used to having such a hard draw as I said! We will have to overcome it! Gonna be very hard to make top 4 if we do I’ll be overcome with emotion but it’s a big mountain to climb.

No Sunday arvo game at all either at home and only 1 for the year in Canberra that’s bullshit.

Anyway no excuses for the Rorters I expect them to be top 2 with that draw! Anything less is a failure!

Play Penrith, Broncos, Storm, Rorters and Sharks all twice do Souths.

Roosters have such an easy draw because they don't have to play the Roosters at all

robelgordo wrote:Isn’t strength of schedule based on last years finish?

So unless the exact same 8 teams make the finals again - which they never do - it’s wrong

Like who cares?

Plus I have this hunch you might have to beat the hard teams in the finals anyway to win the comp.

Souths always the victims. It’s the basis on their existence. In their DNA

It still benefits teams like the Sharks who are flat track bullies. And look again only play 9 of last years top 8.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nrl-premiership/nrl-2022-draw-winners-and-losers-broncos-raiders-dolphins-sea-eagles-rabbitohs-bulldogs-eels-panthers/news-story/fe264a805141dd56199dce2a77d55fa9

For the 2023 season, Canberra were judged to have the easiest draw, based on the following matchups
Forecast numbers first, actual in brackets
Top eight: 8 (11)
Top four: 5 (6)
Bottom eight (nine): 14 (13)
Bottom four: 7 (7)


Broncos had the hardest draw, because they had the following draw (followed by actuals)
Top eight: 14 (10)
Top four: 7 (5)
Bottom eight (nine): 8 (14)
Bottom four: 5 (5)

Note that each team was only rated for 22 of their 24 games, because they both played Dolphins twice, who were neither a top 8 nor bottom 8 team in 2022.
In the end the team with the "easiest" draw had more hard games than the team with the "hardest" draw. Which is mostly explained by the team with the hardest draw being in the top 4 and unable to play themselves.

My stats make no attempt to analyze games around origin when a "hard" game could be made easier due to player availability. broncos had to play Warriors (another top 4 team) in R13 when Broncos were missing heaps of players and Warriors were basically full strength (Broncos still won 26-22)
Also you can't predict stuff like Newcastle being average for the first half of the year and then going on a massive run in the 2nd half and being a much tougher opponent.

In short, I wouldn't pay too much attention to analysis of draw strength, other than playing Panthers is probably bad, and playing Tigers is probably good.

Also playing Dragons is good too

Is it worth noting both SMH and NRL.com have Storm as toughest schedule. Rabbitohs still 2nd. And Roosters are middle, nowhere near easiest. They are both factoring in 5 and 7 day turnarounds as well top 4/8 and bottom opponents I think. Whereas I think Fox has just done x games vs last years top 8

So even if you buy into this stuff, the Fox article is the worst analysis

robelgordo wrote:
So even if you buy into this stuff, the Fox article is the worst analysis

When your analysis ends up with the "easiest" draw being harder than the "hardest" draw, just picking teams out of a hat is probably a better method of checking draw toughness

In Fox's defense, they came in 2nd in this site's ladder 2023 predictor

Rabbits21 wrote:
It still benefits teams like the Sharks who are flat track bullies. And look again only play 9 of last years top 8.

Bulldog is that you ? If you include their byes they are top of the table.
IYKYK

No Worries wrote:

Bulldog is that you ? If you include their byes they are top of the table.
IYKYK

Oh so only bulldogs are innumerate now? That's a bloody strong call for someone from a country where people can only count up to sex. At least the faces are bulldogs are practical with their blood channels that drain the oppositions fluids away from their face. What does yours do? Confuse pigeons?

There's a bit more retrospection required to really engage with these concepts. Consider, for instance, sitting randomly in just another f****** airport bar. Yeah? Does that make the shine on the


Ah sod it they called my name on the tannoy. Will work on more coherent abuse shortly, apologies for the lackluster effort.