NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in

robelgordo wrote:

Has he though?

2023 we've been through. 70+ mins.

Looking at the previous years:
- 2022 he averaged 60 mins per game. But R1 was 29 mins, then R10 was 17 mins, both when he got injured. R16 first game back from injury was 41 mins. Exclude those, suddenly we're up to 65 mins per game plan.
- 2021 there was a 9 minute game otherwise he's 66 mins per game
- 2020 played only 6 games and averaged 58 mins
- 2019 and earlier he played a lot of hooker (good for mins) and interchange (bad for minutes) but neither worth considering as not congruent to current position

So on closer examination he's averaged 71, ~65, ~65, 58.

Is it an outlier when a 25 year old coming into his peak football years plays more minutes and has a greater role? Should we expect that to continue into 2024 or a regression at this stage of his career back to 2020 numbers? I would personally put more weight on what has happened recently. Matt knows this - he's a big fan of recency bias

Spoiler:

my tv broke wrote:

I like May, but he looks as clear as a 35-40 pt guy as they come. Probably reliable enough to hang around for a while when you have a bunch of other problems to deal with.

Alfie wrote:I'm prophesying Ethan Strange will be the 5/8 rather than Weekes. Weekes is no doubt talented but more of a fullback; really got found out at 5/8 for us

Alfie wrote:I'm prophesying Ethan Strange will be the 5/8 rather than Weekes. Weekes is no doubt talented but more of a fullback; really got found out at 5/8 for us

White Lightning wrote:

Weekes is very poor utterly useless he was touted as a super star coming through the manly lower grades & he gets his chance at 1st grade & he choked big time esp. in defense. Was poor in the halves & was poor at fb i think he even got dragged early in 1 of the games as he was so bad & i think in a couple of games he got shifted to the wing mid game because he was so bad so they tried to hide him so he wouldn't get exposed much.
they should create a new rule: don't buy weekes or schuster cause he's just as bad.

robelgordo wrote:

Not confirmed but word on the streets is going to Storm, where it is assumed he will immediately play 80 mins on edge and also out fantasy score all other Storm edges in recent memory

L-Jimmy wrote:Rule #4: No Bench Props at Start of Season*




*except for Spencer Leniu

robelgordo wrote:In all seriousness nobody really wants to start with bench props in their squad, but nearly every season it feels like it has to be done due to lack of other cheap options. It's either pick 3-4 shitto WFBs or pick 2-3 shitto WFBs and spread the risk a bit with a bench prop.

Fortitude wrote:On the raiders, i wouldn't say I'm optimistic about 2024, but I'm not sure why it's considered a given that they are going to perform worse in 2024 than 2023. I mean, dont get me wrong, this year is the definition of a rebuild year, but so was last year. Next year is going to be way worse.

Our only loss worth worrying about is Wighton. The loss will be felt more defensively than in attack (based on 2023 performance only).

We still have a really soft draw.

Raiders are banking on development to improve performance, shown through the recruitment. Few young players may emerge, but unlikely any will get a full season, which make picking any cheap raider rookies problematic.

From what ive heard, Savage is hugely on the outer - requires a couple of attitude adjustments before the senior player group allow him to play. Everyone expects Chevy Stewart to be FB by the end of the year but may not start there as Ricky is known to be hesitant to throw young players in the deep end.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Mariota get much more game time this year as well.

Id also be interested to see how Timoko and Kris goes playing Ctr this year. Timoko is a gun, Kris really stood up last year, and in the very few opportunities he had in Ctr he looked really strong.

The spine is a huge unknown. If you had to guess, you'd say Levi, Weekes, Savage/Stewart are not currently first grade material, and it will be too much to expect that they all improve this year.

my tv broke wrote:

I'm not arguing with the rule. I can't see a situation where I would start with May.

Camo123 wrote:Speaking of bench props

“Kevin Walters believed Willison was poised to become Haas’ latest wrecking ball partner”

Daily Telegraph (article stating Cobbo will be left CTR)