HomeI’m starting a list of takes I’ll bet against
1. Blore averages 50+
Not saying that’s a bad take btw, just I don’t think it happens
1. Blore averages 50+
Not saying that’s a bad take btw, just I don’t think it happens
NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in
robelgordo- Fanatic
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- Post n°221
Re: NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in
by robelgordo Sun Jan 07, 2024 4:04 pm
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- Post n°222
Re: NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in
by Alfie Sun Jan 07, 2024 5:42 pm
Anyone else sniffing around Terrell May? That 84 in the finals without a try was scary, albeit in 56mins. Last 4 reg season scores were 59, 54, 50 and 48 
Interested to see if Connor Watson comes back in
Interested to see if Connor Watson comes back in
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- Post n°223
Re: NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in
by Camo123 Sun Jan 07, 2024 6:34 pm
Alfie wrote:Anyone else sniffing around Terrell May? That 84 in the finals without a try was scary, albeit in 56mins. Last 4 reg season scores were 59, 54, 50 and 48
Think he’s probably a trap. Too many mouths to feed with Collins, Radley, JWH, May, Watson, Leniu, Tupouniua/Crichton (edges capable of middle mins off bench)
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- Post n°224
Re: NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in
by Snatchpato Sun Jan 07, 2024 6:36 pm
I think I'll wait till TLT to make a team, seems like there's way too many players to consider at this stage.
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- Post n°225
Re: NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in
by mattnz Sun Jan 07, 2024 6:56 pm
Alfie wrote:Anyone else sniffing around Terrell May? That 84 in the finals without a try was scary, albeit in 56mins. Last 4 reg season scores were 59, 54, 50 and 48
I have May in my current draft team. If he is getting decent minutes, he is scoring well. Showed Robbo that he can be relied on to step up, at the end of last season. With JWH out to start the year (same as when May was getting his opportunity at the end of last season) and the 34 year old likely taking a smaller role when he returns this season and small minutes Leniu in the team as well, all looks good for him to start this year as he finished last year.
He averaged something crazy like 60 in reserve grade. Took a while to step up, but found his feet last season and looked every bit like he belongs in first grade.
If you look at the minutes in the finals, he was playing significantly more minutes than either Baker or Butcher and almost as many minutes as Collins. Radley was getting 80 minutes, but I doubt he gets that during the season, with lots of depth on the bench.
Some tough calls to make for Robbo, with so much depth competing for spots.
Even if Wong gets the EDG spot, he only played 49 and 71 minutes in the finals series, when they were short on troops, and played around 50 minutes in 3 of his 5 starts on the EDG in the regular season. Could see Angus taking significant minutes off him every week, making him a trap.
I am thinking at full strength they would be something like:
JWH 40
Collins 45
Radley 60
Wong 55
N Butcher 80
Brandon 60
Watson 40 (20 Hooker 20 lock)
Leniu 35 (for Collins, same as last season at Panthers)
Angus 25 (for Wong)
May 40 (for JWH, a 15 minute drop on his finals minutes last season)
Thats with Tupoinua, Egan and Sandon not even making the 17.
Could see May getting a 45 average in 40 minutes for 9 points of value on his starting price.
Can certainly see why Flaker decided to move on, wasn't going to get any game time.
Last edited by mattnz on Sun Jan 07, 2024 7:08 pm; edited 1 time in total
robelgordo- Fanatic
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- Post n°226
Re: NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in
by robelgordo Sun Jan 07, 2024 7:01 pm
No way Radley only gets 60 mins. He was 71 last year and that includes a 29 min game where he got injured and an estimated 26 sin bins
May could go off though. But I feel like he might be one to wait for the bottom and increased minutes thru attrition.
May could go off though. But I feel like he might be one to wait for the bottom and increased minutes thru attrition.
mattnz- Fanatic
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- Post n°227
Re: NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in
by mattnz Sun Jan 07, 2024 7:11 pm
robelgordo wrote:No way Radley only gets 60 mins. He was 71 last year and that includes a 29 min game where he got injured and an estimated 26 sin bins
May could go off though. But I feel like he might be one to wait for the bottom and increased minutes thru attrition.
Last season they didn't have a lock on the bench, with Watson available they do. At full strength, Radley goes back to his 2022 minutes, which was a 60 average.
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- Post n°228
Re: NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in
by Alfie Sun Jan 07, 2024 8:30 pm
robelgordo wrote:No way Radley only gets 60 mins. He was 71 last year and that includes a 29 min game where he got injured and an estimated 26 sin bins
May could go off though. But I feel like he might be one to wait for the bottom and increased minutes thru attrition.
No way? He consistently averaged around 60 before last year. Only a Sith deals in absolutes
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- Post n°229
Re: NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in
by Alfie Sun Jan 07, 2024 8:52 pm
Camo123 wrote:
Think he’s probably a trap. Too many mouths to feed with Collins, Radley, JWH, May, Watson, Leniu, Tupouniua/Crichton (edges capable of middle mins off bench)
Robbo looked happy to fill his belly at the back end but yeah I can see Watto and Leniu taking up more minutes than Baker and Sandon did last year
No Worries- Moderator
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- Post n°230
Re: NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in
by No Worries Sun Jan 07, 2024 9:02 pm
If we are turning this into a cat thread, have Whiskas changed their recipe or preseratives ? New box and Layla has been crazy for a couple of hours after every feed.
Alfie- Posts : 1362
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- Post n°231
Re: NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in
by Alfie Sun Jan 07, 2024 9:17 pm
Commence human trials
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in
by No Worries Sun Jan 07, 2024 9:35 pm
Alfie wrote:Commence human trials
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- Post n°233
Re: NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in
by Rabbits21 Sun Jan 07, 2024 11:34 pm
mattnz wrote:
I have May in my current draft team. If he is getting decent minutes, he is scoring well. Showed Robbo that he can be relied on to step up, at the end of last season. With JWH out to start the year (same as when May was getting his opportunity at the end of last season) and the 34 year old likely taking a smaller role when he returns this season and small minutes Leniu in the team as well, all looks good for him to start this year as he finished last year.
He averaged something crazy like 60 in reserve grade. Took a while to step up, but found his feet last season and looked every bit like he belongs in first grade.
If you look at the minutes in the finals, he was playing significantly more minutes than either Baker or Butcher and almost as many minutes as Collins. Radley was getting 80 minutes, but I doubt he gets that during the season, with lots of depth on the bench.
Some tough calls to make for Robbo, with so much depth competing for spots.
Even if Wong gets the EDG spot, he only played 49 and 71 minutes in the finals series, when they were short on troops, and played around 50 minutes in 3 of his 5 starts on the EDG in the regular season. Could see Angus taking significant minutes off him every week, making him a trap.
I am thinking at full strength they would be something like:
JWH 40
Collins 45
Radley 60
Wong 55
N Butcher 80
Brandon 60
Watson 40 (20 Hooker 20 lock)
Leniu 35 (for Collins, same as last season at Panthers)
Angus 25 (for Wong)
May 40 (for JWH, a 15 minute drop on his finals minutes last season)
Thats with Tupoinua, Egan and Sandon not even making the 17.
Could see May getting a 45 average in 40 minutes for 9 points of value on his starting price.
Can certainly see why Flaker decided to move on, wasn't going to get any game time.
I have what Milchy says in my head and that is don’t overthink it starting second rowers generally always play big mins.
I don’t think JWH will be playing 40mins a game I think it’ll drop back to about 35mins a game when he’s back.
More often that not barring the odd occasion Robbo generally gives his starting second rowers massive mins as well.
multiple.scoregasms- Fanatic
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- Post n°234
Re: NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in
by multiple.scoregasms Mon Jan 08, 2024 6:20 am
mattnz wrote:
I have May in my current draft team. If he is getting decent minutes, he is scoring well. Showed Robbo that he can be relied on to step up, at the end of last season. With JWH out to start the year (same as when May was getting his opportunity at the end of last season) and the 34 year old likely taking a smaller role when he returns this season and small minutes Leniu in the team as well, all looks good for him to start this year as he finished last year.
He averaged something crazy like 60 in reserve grade. Took a while to step up, but found his feet last season and looked every bit like he belongs in first grade.
If you look at the minutes in the finals, he was playing significantly more minutes than either Baker or Butcher and almost as many minutes as Collins. Radley was getting 80 minutes, but I doubt he gets that during the season, with lots of depth on the bench.
Some tough calls to make for Robbo, with so much depth competing for spots.
Even if Wong gets the EDG spot, he only played 49 and 71 minutes in the finals series, when they were short on troops, and played around 50 minutes in 3 of his 5 starts on the EDG in the regular season. Could see Angus taking significant minutes off him every week, making him a trap.
I am thinking at full strength they would be something like:
JWH 40
Collins 45
Radley 60
Wong 55
N Butcher 80
Brandon 60
Watson 40 (20 Hooker 20 lock)
Leniu 35 (for Collins, same as last season at Panthers)
Angus 25 (for Wong)
May 40 (for JWH, a 15 minute drop on his finals minutes last season)
Thats with Tupoinua, Egan and Sandon not even making the 17.
Could see May getting a 45 average in 40 minutes for 9 points of value on his starting price.
Can certainly see why Flaker decided to move on, wasn't going to get any game time.
I think both Wong and May are going to be fantastic players(and will both probably have the starting spot by mid year) but I can see Robbo trying to get the best out of Angus early by giving him more minutes. If you can turn him around you have a proven rep quality player which gives the young guys a lot longer rope for development. This may mean Angus(or Butcher, or Tupouinua) gets some middle minutes
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- Post n°235
Re: NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in
by robelgordo Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:27 am
Alfie wrote:
No way? He consistently averaged around 60 before last year. Only a Sith deals in absolutes
Has he though?
2023 we've been through. 70+ mins.
Looking at the previous years:
- 2022 he averaged 60 mins per game. But R1 was 29 mins, then R10 was 17 mins, both when he got injured. R16 first game back from injury was 41 mins. Exclude those, suddenly we're up to 65 mins per game plan.
- 2021 there was a 9 minute game otherwise he's 66 mins per game
- 2020 played only 6 games and averaged 58 mins
- 2019 and earlier he played a lot of hooker (good for mins) and interchange (bad for minutes) but neither worth considering as not congruent to current position
So on closer examination he's averaged 71, ~65, ~65, 58.
Is it an outlier when a 25 year old coming into his peak football years plays more minutes and has a greater role? Should we expect that to continue into 2024 or a regression at this stage of his career back to 2020 numbers? I would personally put more weight on what has happened recently. Matt knows this - he's a big fan of recency bias
my tv broke- Fanatics Immortal
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in
by my tv broke Mon Jan 08, 2024 10:03 am
Radley will average between 65.1 and 65.3 minutes per game.
Sauce: fridge.
Sauce: fridge.
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- Post n°237
Re: NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in
by my tv broke Mon Jan 08, 2024 10:11 am
robelgordo wrote:I’m starting a list of takes I’ll bet against
1. Blore averages 50+
Not saying that’s a bad take btw, just I don’t think it happens
I'd come out of betting retirement to put 1k on this (the unders)
Does he still play for the Tigers ?
robelgordo- Fanatic
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- Post n°238
Re: NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in
by robelgordo Mon Jan 08, 2024 10:26 am
my tv broke wrote:
I'd come out of betting retirement to put 1k on this (the unders)
Does he still play for the Tigers ?
Not confirmed but word on the streets is going to Storm, where it is assumed he will immediately play 80 mins on edge and also out fantasy score all other Storm edges in recent memory
robelgordo- Fanatic
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- Post n°239
Re: NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in
by robelgordo Mon Jan 08, 2024 10:32 am
VOLKMAN TO DRAGONS
Looking at our squad, we are building a gun NSW Cup side. Unfortunately some of them will have to play NRL.
I legit think we have only 9 players any NRL team would have in their top 30. Maybe another 6 or so with potential, with development delayed by COVID or whatever.
Literally half the squad are either 1-2 seasons from being NRL ready, 1-2 seasons plus past it, or back end squad guys that would never make the top 30 at half the clubs in the comp. Plus theres the guy likely to be in jail, and the guy that has a potentially life threatening illness.
Hopefully Flanno can get some supplements into them, eke out 6-7 wins to avoid the wooden spoon, and use the millions of dollars we surely must be under the salary cap by to build from 2025.
Looking at our squad, we are building a gun NSW Cup side. Unfortunately some of them will have to play NRL.
I legit think we have only 9 players any NRL team would have in their top 30. Maybe another 6 or so with potential, with development delayed by COVID or whatever.
Literally half the squad are either 1-2 seasons from being NRL ready, 1-2 seasons plus past it, or back end squad guys that would never make the top 30 at half the clubs in the comp. Plus theres the guy likely to be in jail, and the guy that has a potentially life threatening illness.
Hopefully Flanno can get some supplements into them, eke out 6-7 wins to avoid the wooden spoon, and use the millions of dollars we surely must be under the salary cap by to build from 2025.
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- Post n°240
Re: NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in
by Fortitude Mon Jan 08, 2024 10:37 am
On the raiders, i wouldn't say I'm optimistic about 2024, but I'm not sure why it's considered a given that they are going to perform worse in 2024 than 2023. I mean, dont get me wrong, this year is the definition of a rebuild year, but so was last year. Next year is going to be way worse.
Our only loss worth worrying about is Wighton. The loss will be felt more defensively than in attack (based on 2023 performance only).
We still have a really soft draw.
Raiders are banking on development to improve performance, shown through the recruitment. Few young players may emerge, but unlikely any will get a full season, which make picking any cheap raider rookies problematic.
From what ive heard, Savage is hugely on the outer - requires a couple of attitude adjustments before the senior player group allow him to play. Everyone expects Chevy Stewart to be FB by the end of the year but may not start there as Ricky is known to be hesitant to throw young players in the deep end.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Mariota get much more game time this year as well.
Id also be interested to see how Timoko and Kris goes playing Ctr this year. Timoko is a gun, Kris really stood up last year, and in the very few opportunities he had in Ctr he looked really strong.
The spine is a huge unknown. If you had to guess, you'd say Levi, Weekes, Savage/Stewart are not currently first grade material, and it will be too much to expect that they all improve this year.
Our only loss worth worrying about is Wighton. The loss will be felt more defensively than in attack (based on 2023 performance only).
We still have a really soft draw.
Raiders are banking on development to improve performance, shown through the recruitment. Few young players may emerge, but unlikely any will get a full season, which make picking any cheap raider rookies problematic.
From what ive heard, Savage is hugely on the outer - requires a couple of attitude adjustments before the senior player group allow him to play. Everyone expects Chevy Stewart to be FB by the end of the year but may not start there as Ricky is known to be hesitant to throw young players in the deep end.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Mariota get much more game time this year as well.
Id also be interested to see how Timoko and Kris goes playing Ctr this year. Timoko is a gun, Kris really stood up last year, and in the very few opportunities he had in Ctr he looked really strong.
The spine is a huge unknown. If you had to guess, you'd say Levi, Weekes, Savage/Stewart are not currently first grade material, and it will be too much to expect that they all improve this year.