NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in

Ando wrote:Sorry to hear about your pet Rabs mate, hope you're ok

Butters is bald

Thanks mate I appreciate it. I am finding it very hard I feel quite low. We just got her urn today to bring home we had her cremated so she is still with me but in a different form.

White Lightning wrote:

is a real warhorse but he's on the decline his best days are behind him & willison the young gun on the rise...the sad reality of pro sport

Would you reckon Sam Hughes might get a few more mins than Willison? Apparently the Dogs rate this Hughes highly and given your lower on middles maybe he’s a better option than Willison?

Welshy wrote:

I like his starting price mate, no Tamou, Tolo on the decline.

Previous history of scoring well above starting price, with me going big in halves need to trim the fat elsewhere and Cotter someone I've got tabbed and a return to the upper echelons of fantasy mids this year

Agree mate I think he will play 60mins or just over on avg the first 10 games or so. I think he can avg right on 50. I’m seeing about 8 point upside. At this stage I have him but he’s not fully locked in.

Another option many are keen on is Tatola at 485k.

Welshy wrote:Current draft sitting at



Curran, Cotter
Lane
Cleary, Hynes

Papy Turbo

Not going anywhere else yet.

I had Lane but then I had to take him out as I was trying a draft with Cleary, Grant and Haas and I had to take out Lane. That draft had Fog as my second half. I don’t think Fog will avg 55 but he can avg around 52 so 6 point upside a handy guy who doesn’t play origin too and you could have him as 17/18th man for run home or upgrade him at that point.

I wouldn’t mind a Moses and Cleary combo but that would mean going dirt cheap at centre and that makes me very nervous. And I’d probs have to sacrifice Grant too.

Rabbits21 wrote:
Agree mate I think he will play 60mins or just over on avg the first 10 games or so. I think he can avg right on 50. I’m seeing about 8 point upside. At this stage I have him but he’s not fully locked in.

Another option many are keen on is Tatola at 485k.

I like Tatola, but been burned a load of time previously by him, just always turns out too mid for me. He's in contention though

Welshy wrote:

I like his starting price mate, no Tamou, Tolo on the decline.

Previous history of scoring well above starting price, with me going big in halves need to trim the fat elsewhere and Cotter someone I've got tabbed and a return to the upper echelons of fantasy mids this year

Pretty unchanged lineup from last year though. Tamou only played 2 games last year I think largely due to injury. Emergence of Neame wouldn't have helped

Welshy wrote:

I like Tatola, but been burned a load of time previously by him, just always turns out too mid for me. He's in contention though

If Arrow starts edge and shifts to middle later it’s better for Tatola. If Arrow starts prop not so good for Tatola as Keppie, Tom and Duncan would all be bench.

Alfie wrote:

Pretty unchanged lineup from last year though. Tamou only played 2 games last year I think largely due to injury. Emergence of Neame wouldn't have helped

Neame was great for the Kiwis. Could be the guy to step up.

Rabbits21 wrote:
Agree mate I think he will play 60mins or just over on avg the first 10 games or so. I think he can avg right on 50. I’m seeing about 8 point upside. At this stage I have him but he’s not fully locked in.

Another option many are keen on is Tatola at 485k.

What's your read on Cam Murray this year? Bounce back or not? He's over 100k cheaper to start the season than he was in 2023.

Alfie wrote:

Pretty unchanged lineup from last year though. Tamou only played 2 games last year I think largely due to injury. Emergence of Neame wouldn't have helped

Even if he doesn't get a minute increase mate he's a gut pick for return to higher scoring. 52 legacy average playing 50+ mins

rhinoceroo wrote:

What's your read on Cam Murray this year? Bounce back or not? He's over 100k cheaper to start the season than he was in 2023.

SSshhhhhh

Welshy wrote:

Even if he doesn't get a minute increase mate he's a gut pick for return to higher scoring. 52 legacy average playing 50+ mins

I'd never question a man's gut

rhinoceroo wrote:

What's your read on Cam Murray this year? Bounce back or not? He's over 100k cheaper to start the season than he was in 2023.

Hard to say I’m wondering if his mins come slightly back I’m worried about his longevity he’s not a big body in the middle on those massive mins. It’ll depend how they use Arrow. If Arrow is solely a middle then I would say Host or Cheeks starts on the edge but won’t  play more than 50-55mins most games so there will be edge mins up for grabs. I’m wondering if Duncan will fill those edge mins if Arrow plays middle or does Murray play 15-20mins edge with Duncan playing lock.

I’ll need to hear more about how they train in coming weeks once I hear more on formations I’ll let you guys know. Pre Christmas for example Tass trained at edge too at times and I mean Milne has played edge for Fiji before too.

If Murray does play a bit on edge in some games how would it affect his ppm?

If he solely stays middle does he come back to 62-65mins rather than say 65-68mins. That’s the question. I think early on he will play big mins then we will manage him over origin.

I’d say he will avg 65mins for sure if solely middle pre origin. If he’s gonna play some edge then it could be closer to that 70mins mark.

Where he declined last year was in his missed tackles slightly creeping up, lower attacking stats re try assists, line breaks assists etc, he had less offloads and his penalties given away went up from 0.4 to 1.1 from 2022 to 2023.

If you get Murray you aren’t holding all season you sell over origin you’d have him til round 12 and we have a round 7 bye you’d have to guess/estimate what he avg over those 11 games. If you think it’s 60-62 that is very reliable and 3-5 points upside. If you think he avg 56-58 maybe not worth it.

I have done drafts with Haas and Murray but it means going cheaper at hooker, going with two dirt cheap centres and cheap WFB’s. So I’m not sure whether I’ll run 2 gun mids at this stage. Going with two dirt cheap centres the thought of it is making me nervous.


Predicted Souths pack if Arrow is solely middle….

Tatola
Cook
Arrow
Host/Cheeks
Keaon (been training left)
Murray

Havili/Mamozelos
Duncan
Keppie
T. Burgess

Moale
Shaq


Predicted pack with Arrow starting edge:

Tatola
Cook
Keppie
Arrow
Keaon
Murray

Havili/Mamozelos
Duncan
Moale/Host/Cheeks
T. Burgess

Shaq

rhinoceroo wrote:

What's your read on Cam Murray this year? Bounce back or not? He's over 100k cheaper to start the season than he was in 2023.

Thoughts on if Wong starts mate? Lots are saying he might only get 60mins because Angus and Sitili bench but doesn’t Robbo nearly always play his second rowers at least 70mins?

If Wong starts edge how many mins do you think he gets and what do you think he will avg?

Rabbits21 wrote:
Thoughts on if Wong starts mate? Lots are saying he might only get 60mins because Angus and Sitili bench but doesn’t Robbo nearly always play his second rowers at least 70mins?

If Wong starts edge how many mins do you think he gets and what do you think he will avg?

I've no inside info on that, but yes Robbo does traditionally play his edges for 80, and also they defend centrally for multiple sets while one of the props has a breather out wide, which is why they tend to make more tackles than other teams' 2RFs.

However, no guarantee that continues this season (you've probably noticed that we haven't won anything lately, and Robbo knows there's more than one way to play the game.)

As for Wong, he's a talent, and whichever of the Roosters' 4-500k edges gets the start should make good money even if they do only play 60 minutes. Given they also play in Vegas so are confirmed early means they'll also be in everyone's team.

rhinoceroo wrote:

I've no inside info on that, but yes Robbo does traditionally play his edges for 80, and also they defend centrally for multiple sets while one of the props has a breather out wide, which is why they tend to make more tackles than other teams' 2RFs.

However, no guarantee that continues this season (you've probably noticed that we haven't won anything lately, and Robbo knows there's more than one way to play the game.)

As for Wong, he's a talent, and whichever of the Roosters' 4-500k edges gets the start should make good money even if they do only play 60 minutes. Given they also play in Vegas so are confirmed early means they'll also be in everyone's team.

Thanks mate for that.

Just sent you a message too by the way

2024 forward rotation predictions are up if anyone wants to have a gander and pick anything apart. Only if you want to win this year of course

https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t2339-2024-predicted-forward-rotation#741666

Rabbits21 wrote:
Hard to say I’m wondering if his mins come slightly back I’m worried about his longevity he’s not a big body in the middle on those massive mins. It’ll depend how they use Arrow. If Arrow is solely a middle then I would say Host or Cheeks starts on the edge but won’t  play more than 50-55mins most games so there will be edge mins up for grabs. I’m wondering if Duncan will fill those edge mins if Arrow plays middle or does Murray play 15-20mins edge with Duncan playing lock.

I’ll need to hear more about how they train in coming weeks once I hear more on formations I’ll let you guys know. Pre Christmas for example Tass trained at edge too at times and I mean Milne has played edge for Fiji before too.

If Murray does play a bit on edge in some games how would it affect his ppm?

If he solely stays middle does he come back to 62-65mins rather than say 65-68mins. That’s the question. I think early on he will play big mins then we will manage him over origin.

I’d say he will avg 65mins for sure if solely middle pre origin. If he’s gonna play some edge then it could be closer to that 70mins mark.

Where he declined last year was in his missed tackles slightly creeping up, lower attacking stats re try assists, line breaks assists etc, he had less offloads and his penalties given away went up from 0.4 to 1.1 from 2022 to 2023.

If you get Murray you aren’t holding all season you sell over origin you’d have him til round 12 and we have a round 7 bye you’d have to guess/estimate what he avg over those 11 games. If you think it’s 60-62 that is very reliable and 3-5 points upside. If you think he avg 56-58 maybe not worth it.

I have done drafts with Haas and Murray but it means going cheaper at hooker, going with two dirt cheap centres and cheap WFB’s. So I’m not sure whether I’ll run 2 gun mids at this stage. Going with two dirt cheap centres the thought of it is making me nervous.


Predicted Souths pack if Arrow is solely middle….

Tatola
Cook
Arrow
Host/Cheeks
Keaon (been training left)
Murray

Havili/Mamozelos
Duncan
Keppie
T. Burgess

Moale
Shaq


Predicted pack with Arrow starting edge:

Tatola
Cook
Keppie
Arrow
Keaon
Murray

Havili/Mamozelos
Duncan
Moale/Host/Cheeks
T. Burgess

Shaq

On the offloads for Murray I think it’s a tactical thing, Rabbitohs were joint bottom for offloads

Murray is in and out of my squad, hate the bye schedule

Camo123 wrote:

On the offloads for Murray I think it’s a tactical thing, Rabbitohs were joint bottom for offloads

Murray is in and out of my squad, hate the bye schedule

Well if it was to cut down errors it didn’t work look at our completion rates lol….

Geez mate centre looks dire again.

Love the Bye Round Grid with a moving crosshair on footystatistics.com

Cheers MTB