NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 1 - Gates are open, come on in

rhinoceroo wrote:

Who runs one hooker nowadays? Even Bellamy has a hooker on the bench to spell Grant. Only bottom 8 teams like Souths and the Cowboys use 80-minute hookers

Seriously though... there's been a bit of a change of philosophy around number 9s. The best two teams in the comp last year ran 9s and 14s who'd struggle to get in many other sides and it didn't do them much harm. A Lussick/Hands one-two punch would fit into that, only one of them playing out the game not so much. But who knows what BA is doing.

Mahoney, B. Brailey JMK generally play 80 too and Grant for the most part.

Rabbits21 wrote:
Mahoney, B. Brailey JMK generally play 80 too and Grant for the most part.

Oh, yeah, Blake Brailey probably the exception as an 80-minute hooker for a competitive team.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Oh, yeah, Blake Brailey probably the exception as an 80-minute hooker for a competitive team.

You keen on Cheese mate quite a few that were up there last year are

Rabbits21 wrote:
You keen on Cheese mate quite a few that were up there last year are

Cheese currently my only hooker. Would have to think about one of the Parra guys if they are indeed 80 though.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Oh, yeah, Blake Brailey probably the exception as an 80-minute hooker for a competitive team during the regular season.

They can't buy a win in the finals series.

If you throw out the 2021 season (which I believe we probably should when looking at past data), then cheese is priced around what he will give you

Averaged 42 as a starting hooker 2023, 40 in 2022

I owned him 3 separate times last season and won't be doing it again

multiple.scoregasms wrote:If you throw out the 2021 season (which I believe we probably should when looking at past data), then cheese is priced around what he will give you

Averaged 42 as a starting hooker 2023, 40 in 2022

I owned him 3 separate times last season and won't be doing it again

There might be a small amount of value but I'd feel much better not having to worry about the headache he brings. With the apparent cheapy options at Hooker, he's surplus to requirements.

2024 is the year of lactose intolerance

multiple.scoregasms wrote:If you throw out the 2021 season (which I believe we probably should when looking at past data), then cheese is priced around what he will give you

Averaged 42 as a starting hooker 2023, 40 in 2022

I owned him 3 separate times last season and won't be doing it again

Excluding the 26 min injury game and above 50 mins in 2023 (average 67 mins which seems on par for this year), averages 47. Averaged 46 in similar mins in 2022 excluding 2 min injury game

Camo123 wrote:

Excluding the 26 min injury game and above 50 mins in 2023 (average 67 mins which seems on par for this year), averages 47. Averaged 46 in similar mins in 2022 excluding 2 min injury game

It's the eye-test upside that attracts (and the hope that kills you). He has the potential for so many more tries and 20-point runs and offloads in him, particularly if the Roosters click in a way they didn't last year. The yang to that yin are the random injuries and possibility of him accidentally calling the ref a cunt, but that's the rollercoaster.

I can see myself picking Cheese again.

I reckon Hopgood goes large in the first couple of weeks, people make all sorts of efforts to get him in, and then reverts to a fairly standard 50-55 average.

Here is a 2021 article where Brad Arthur talks up Juniors Paulo's ability to play big minutes

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/nrl/teams/nrl-2021-brad-arthur-wants-junior-paulo-to-be-parramatta-eels-enforcer/news-story/513923c6d02d4465bcc9e0a3c129afde

After this public boost from the coach, Paulo's minutes went from 54 in 2020 to 53 in 2021
(and 47 in 2022, back up to 54 last year)
Wonder if Hands/Lussick will see a similar effect

my tv broke wrote:I can see myself picking Cheese again.

How many times?

Camo123 wrote:

Excluding the 26 min injury game and above 50 mins in 2023 (average 67 mins which seems on par for this year), averages 47. Averaged 46 in similar mins in 2022 excluding 2 min injury game

You are only including 12 of the 19 games he played last year.
Every player will look better if you throw out the bottom third of their scores.

Milchcow wrote:

You are only including 12 of the 19 games he played last year.
Every player will look better if you throw out the bottom third of their scores.

I have him between 45-47 so 6-8 points upside so that’s handy and DPP

Rabbits21 wrote:

Milchcow wrote:

You are only including 12 of the 19 games he played last year.
Every player will look better if you throw out the bottom third of their scores.

I have him between 45-47 so 6-8 points upside so that’s handy and DPP

Everyone had him at that (or better) last year, and by round 20 he'd scored over 45 three times.

He's a very risky play IMO

Milchcow wrote:

Everyone had him at that (or better) last year, and by round 20 he'd scored over 45 three times.

He's a very risky play IMO

If you think the Roosters go better with better go forward he will probs go better. Think he’s had less of an injury interrupted pre season too

Milchcow wrote:

Everyone had him at that (or better) last year, and by round 20 he'd scored over 45 three times.

He's a very risky play IMO

I think we've set out the risk/reward well here between Camo and yourself. Yes, there's substantial upside but he's also a bit of an injury-prone idiot. Could become less so, could repeat next year.

I wouldn't class it as a 'very' risky play - not a huge amount of cash, not a huge probability of repeated low scores. Acceptably-within-draft-team-planning-risk-depending-on-one's-early-season-risk-appetite Risky perhaps, although it doesn't roll off the tongue.

Ponga, Weekes, SJ, Litchell, Grand Angus, Valentine, Talau, RTS, Brooks - these are what I'm avoiding as high-risk plays, because of either high cost, high injury risk, repeated low score risk, role certainty, or all of these at the same time (Mitchell, looking at you bud).

Milchcow wrote:

You are only including 12 of the 19 games he played last year.
Every player will look better if you throw out the bottom third of their scores.

Isn’t that the point of preseason reviewing averages in the expectation of position and mins they’ll play to find value

E.g. I’m not looking at any of Schuster scores from 2023 because he’s expected to play EDG and not HLF. Nor am I expecting someone to get injured multiple times a season when they haven’t really been injury prone

L-Jimmy wrote:

I think we've set out the risk/reward well here between Camo and yourself. Yes, there's substantial upside but he's also a bit of an injury-prone idiot. Could become less so, could repeat next year.

I wouldn't class it as a 'very' risky play - not a huge amount of cash, not a huge probability of repeated low scores. Acceptably-within-draft-team-planning-risk-depending-on-one's-early-season-risk-appetite Risky perhaps, although it doesn't roll off the tongue.

Ponga, Weekes, SJ, Litchell, Grand Angus, Valentine, Talau, RTS, Brooks - these are what I'm avoiding as high-risk plays, because of either high cost, high injury risk, repeated low score risk, role certainty, or all of these at the same time (Mitchell, looking at you bud).

I wouldn't count Angus as a high risk play, if he's got that left edge starting spot in round 1, he's probably fully fit and ready to go. The rest I agree on though.

Bethany_B wrote:

I wouldn't count Angus as a high risk play, if he's got that left edge starting spot in round 1, he's probably fully fit and ready to go. The rest I agree on though.

That's the risk, yep!